Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>HCA Healthcare's third-quarter performance for 2025 has shown strong results year-over-year, with a notable 42% increase in diluted earnings per share, as adjusted.</li><li>The revenue grew by 9.6%, driven by broad-based volume growth and an improved payer mix.</li><li>This improvement, coupled with disciplined operational management, resulted in better margins.</li></ul>

HCA Healthcare's third-quarter performance for 2025 has shown strong results year-over-year, with a notable 42% increase in diluted earnings per share, as adjusted.The revenue grew by 9.6%, driven by broad-based volume growth and an improved payer mix.This improvement, coupled with disciplined operational management, resulted in better margins.

HCA Healthcare: What Is The Expected Impact Of The Elevated Medical Utilization Trends?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>SPX is pulling back after hitting all-time highs; the gap at 6750-6772 is short-term support, and it is a clear sign bulls remain in control if this gap remains unfilled.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as the 3+ month uptrend continues (currently at ~6675). Additional supports include 6550-6569, 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6290, 6200, and 6100-6150</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
SPX is pulling back after hitting all-time highs; the gap at 6750-6772 is short-term support, and it is a clear sign bulls remain in control if this gap remains unfilled.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as the 3+ month uptrend continues (currently at ~6675). Additional supports include 6550-6569, 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6290, 6200, and 6100-6150


Magnificent Seven's Turn to Shine; Buy Pullbacks to 3+ Month SPX Uptrend and 50-Day MA

<ul>
<li>The market remains relentlessly strong, shrugging off the latest "bearish" headline regarding Moody's U.S. debt downgrade on Friday.</li>
<li>This is exactly what we would expect to happen in a bull market, particularly during this "lockout rally," and helps confirm our bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Our outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500, while short-term gap support is at 5700-5785. We expect a test of all-time highs soon.</li>
</ul>


The market remains relentlessly strong, shrugging off the latest "bearish" headline regarding Moody's U.S. debt downgrade on Friday.
This is exactly what we would expect to happen in a bull market, particularly during this "lockout rally," and helps confirm our bullish outlook.
Our outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500, while short-term gap support is at 5700-5785. We expect a test of all-time highs soon.


Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.</li>
<li>Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.</li>
<li>As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.
Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.
As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.


SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.</li>
<li>Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.</li>
<li>At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.
Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.
At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.


Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

United States

HCA Healthcare, Inc. offers health care services. The Hospital provides diagnosis, treatments, consultancy, nursing, surgeries, and other services, as well as medical education, physician resource center, and training programs. HCA Healthcare serves patients in the United States.

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HCA Healthcare (HCA UN)

HCA Healthcare: What Is The Expected Impact Of The Elevated Medical Utilization Trends?

HCA Healthcare's third-quarter performance for 2025 has shown strong results year-over-year, with a notable 42% increase in diluted earnings per...

Baptista Research

Magnificent Seven's Turn to Shine; Buy Pullbacks to 3+ Month SPX Uptrend and 50-Day MA

Magnificent Seven's $MAGS Turn to Shine; Buy Pullbacks to 3+ Month $SPX Uptrend and 50-day MA, currently 6655-6680. Buys: $AAPL $TSLA $NVDA $GOOGL...

Vermilion Research

Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto $MSTR $HOOD $BTDR $COIN and Quantum $QBTS $IONQ $RGTI $QUBT) Leading. Bullish outlook intact as long as...

Vermilion Research

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

$SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track if Below 5783. Still Neutral, prefer to sell...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Upgrading Staples $XLP, Real Estate $XLRE, Health Care $XLV to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow; Dow $DJI, Equal-Weight S&P 500 $RSP,...

Vermilion Research

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