Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

As we head into Q4 earnings season we remain bullish on the broad market. Our bullish outlook is supported by the themes highlighted in this report.  In addition, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary and Technology: Casinos &amp; Gaming, Large-Cap, Semiconductors, Mid-Cap, Semiconductors, Small-Cap, Software, Design Solutions.

As we head into Q4 earnings season we remain bullish on the broad market. Our bullish outlook is supported by the themes highlighted in this report.  In addition, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary and Technology: Casinos &amp; Gaming, Large-Cap, Semiconductors, Mid-Cap, Semiconductors, Small-Cap, Software, Design Solutions.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Growth Surging Relative to Value

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>COMPUTEX and GTC Taipei drove TSMC and the TAIEX to records, before a US$1.3tn AI selloff in the U.S. sent Taiwan index futures down a record 6.65%.</li>
<li>The trigger was expectations, not fundamentals: Broadcom beat but held rather than raised its long-term AI target, and a hot US jobs report killed Fed rate-cut hopes.</li>
<li>Yet demand kept accelerating through the rout: Winbond, Foxconn and Aspeed posted record sales, and Apollo and Blackstone closed US$35bn to buy AI chips for Anthropic.</li>
</ul>


COMPUTEX and GTC Taipei drove TSMC and the TAIEX to records, before a US$1.3tn AI selloff in the U.S. sent Taiwan index futures down a record 6.65%.
The trigger was expectations, not fundamentals: Broadcom beat but held rather than raised its long-term AI target, and a hot US jobs report killed Fed rate-cut hopes.
Yet demand kept accelerating through the rout: Winbond, Foxconn and Aspeed posted record sales, and Apollo and Blackstone closed US$35bn to buy AI chips for Anthropic.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: COMPUTEX Drives TSMC to Records, Then a US$1.3tn AI Selloff

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Viewtrix Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viewtrix-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:48923:1" rel="noopener">Viewtrix Technology (3310 HK)</a>, a leading AMOLED DDIC company, is looking to raise HK$997m. Its size is not large, but its scale is rapidly growing.</li>
<li>For the next three years, it will remain in the red, despite a 30% CAGR in revenue. The higher R&amp;D expenses will still weigh negatively on margins.</li>
<li>At 5.4x P/S for FY26, it is almost the highest among comparable peers. While stronger growth is a merit, this appears to have been well priced in. </li>
</ul>



Viewtrix Technology (3310 HK), a leading AMOLED DDIC company, is looking to raise HK$997m. Its size is not large, but its scale is rapidly growing.
For the next three years, it will remain in the red, despite a 30% CAGR in revenue. The higher R&amp;D expenses will still weigh negatively on margins.
At 5.4x P/S for FY26, it is almost the highest among comparable peers. While stronger growth is a merit, this appears to have been well priced in. 


Viewtrix Technology (3310 HK) IPO: More or Less Fairly Priced

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary</h2><ul>
<li>Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Driven by iPhone 7, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/666" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> Watch 2 production built, open market smartphones in emerging countries, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/191" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1">Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS)</a> Note 7 battery problem, our 3Q16 sales report takeaways suggest y/y strengths in foundry and fabless vendors and q/q strengths in Apple's touch panel/pressure sensor and OEM/EMS vendors.  </li>
<li>
On…</li>
</ul>

Summary
Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Driven by iPhone 7, Apple Inc (AAPL US) Watch 2 production built, open market smartphones in emerging countries, and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS) Note 7 battery problem, our 3Q16 sales report takeaways suggest y/y strengths in foundry and fabless vendors and q/q strengths in Apple's touch panel/pressure sensor and OEM/EMS vendors.  

On…


Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech July sales are somehow below seasonal and below our expectations. If analysts start to factor in 3-4% appreciation on NT$ against US starting July, earnings prospects in 2H16 for semi and tech companies might not be as strong as market estimated earlier. In conclusion, we believe not much sales momentum left over before we see a seasonal semiconductor…

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech July sales are somehow below seasonal and below our expectations. If analysts start to factor in 3-4% appreciation on NT$ against US starting July, earnings prospects in 2H16 for semi and tech companies might not be as strong as market estimated earlier. In conclusion, we believe not much sales momentum left over before we see a seasonal semiconductor…

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Taiwan

Himax Technologies, Inc. designs and manufactures integrated circuits.  The Company produces liquid crystal displays (LCD).

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Himax Technologies Inc Adr (HIMX US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Growth Surging Relative to Value

As we head into Q4 earnings season we remain bullish on the broad market. Our bullish outlook is supported by the themes highlighted in this...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: COMPUTEX Drives TSMC to Records, Then a US$1.3tn AI Selloff

COMPUTEX and GTC Taipei drove TSMC & TAIEX to records, but a US$1.3tn U.S. AI selloff caused Taiwan index futures to drop 6.65%. Nevertheless,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Viewtrix Technology (3310 HK) IPO: More or Less Fairly Priced

Viewtrix is seeking to raise HK$997m, despite remaining in the red for the next three years due to high R&D expenses. Trading at 5.4x P/S for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

Summary Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings...

Andrew Lu

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech...

Andrew Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Growth Surging Relative to Value

As we head into Q4 earnings season we remain bullish on the broad market. Our bullish outlook is supported by the themes highlighted in this...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: COMPUTEX Drives TSMC to Records, Then a US$1.3tn AI Selloff

​COMPUTEX and GTC Taipei drove TSMC & TAIEX to records, but a US$1.3tn U.S. AI selloff caused Taiwan index futures to drop 6.65%. Nevertheless,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Viewtrix Technology (3310 HK) IPO: More or Less Fairly Priced

​Viewtrix is seeking to raise HK$997m, despite remaining in the red for the next three years due to high R&D expenses. Trading at 5.4x P/S for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

Summary Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings...

Andrew Lu

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech...

Andrew Lu

COMPUTEX and GTC Taipei drove TSMC & TAIEX to records, but a US$1.3tn U.S. AI selloff caused Taiwan index futures to drop 6.65%. Nevertheless,...

Viewtrix is seeking to raise HK$997m, despite remaining in the red for the next three years due to high R&D expenses. Trading at 5.4x P/S for...