Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Vedanta Limited decided to delist its ADRs last autumn. They were delisted but the process of unwinding them comes down to selling the unconverted ADR underlying shares. </li>
<li>Citi is conducting an offering to sell those underlying shares. This will aid in setting the unwind price for existing but unsettled listed ADR derivatives (yay).</li>
<li>The offering itself is just over 1% of shares out, 4% of float, and 12% of foreign portfolio investor holdings. Not huge, but the trend vs peers gives one pause.</li>
</ul>


Vedanta Limited decided to delist its ADRs last autumn. They were delisted but the process of unwinding them comes down to selling the unconverted ADR underlying shares. 
Citi is conducting an offering to sell those underlying shares. This will aid in setting the unwind price for existing but unsettled listed ADR derivatives (yay).
The offering itself is just over 1% of shares out, 4% of float, and 12% of foreign portfolio investor holdings. Not huge, but the trend vs peers gives one pause.


Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>On April 20, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> fixed May 1 as the definitive record date to split its conglomerate into 5 independent listed entities. </li>
<li>This strategic split is expertly designed to eliminate the conglomerate discount, streamline corporate structures, and unlock targeted value across specific verticals. </li>
<li>
Key risks include entity listing delays deferring passive flows, commodity price cyclicality, and unresolved legal friction regarding the TSPL scheme.</li>
</ul>


On April 20, Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) fixed May 1 as the definitive record date to split its conglomerate into 5 independent listed entities. 
This strategic split is expertly designed to eliminate the conglomerate discount, streamline corporate structures, and unlock targeted value across specific verticals. 

Key risks include entity listing delays deferring passive flows, commodity price cyclicality, and unresolved legal friction regarding the TSPL scheme.


Vedanta Demerger: Unlocking Value Through Strategic Pure-Plays

<ul>
<li>Three bits of news may have changed the near-term outlook for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a>. </li>
<li>VEDL looks at spinning off businesses; the Supreme Court allows GOI to sell its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-zinc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)</a>; and the promoters try to up their stake by 4.5%.</li>
<li>Along with the ADR withdrawal, this sets up for an interesting Q2 2022. </li>
</ul>


Three bits of news may have changed the near-term outlook for Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN). 
VEDL looks at spinning off businesses; the Supreme Court allows GOI to sell its stake in Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN); and the promoters try to up their stake by 4.5%.
Along with the ADR withdrawal, this sets up for an interesting Q2 2022. 


Vedanta Promoters Buy MORE Increasing Eventiness, But There Are Headwinds

Yesterday after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> made an announcement of Intention to delist American Depositary Shares from the New York Stock Exchange and terminate its American Depositary Share Program.This has been a big mover. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/231/745/original/Screenshot+2021-09-25+at+11.33.54+PM.png?1632584056" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="231745"></figure></section>The elimination of the ADS sets up a group of Very Interesting Possibilities and it is worthwhile working through what those possibilities are, and what the timing could be.

Yesterday after the close, Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) made an announcement of Intention to delist American Depositary Shares from the New York Stock Exchange and terminate its American Depositary Share Program.This has been a big mover. The elimination of the ADS sets up a group of Very Interesting Possibilities and it is worthwhile working through what those possibilities are, and what the timing could be.

Vedanta To Eliminate Its ADRs - Creates VERY Interesting Possibilities

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> has, for the last year, been subject to dramatic corporate actions which have roiled the share price, and expectations. The launch last May of a Delisting Proposal by the promoters when the shares were trading sub Rs. 90/share led to a rally in the shares which could not even track peer stock performance, and when the Delisting Proposal failed, shares dropped to a dramatically low level, despite the fact that Vedanta owned its shareholders a substantial dividend from the pay-through of dividends from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-zinc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)</a>. As commodity prices continued to rally, and VEDL paid a big dividend in October 2020, it looked like the time to double-up. Everyone "knew" the promoters were willing to pay 40-50% than the post-Delisting Proposal failure to take the whole thing private. I expected a buyback. 10 days after the CEO said "we have no plans to buy more shares" we got an off-market block purchase of 5% by the promoters in December at Rs 160, followed a couple of weeks later by a proposed Open Offer to buy another 10%, which was later upsized and up-priced - by 47%, and still the Promoters could only get 10% of the 17.5% they sought to buy. A month on from that and the shares are nearly 10% higher than the Open Offer Price while a Peer Basket is largely unchanged from two months back. This means VEDL shares are again (as they were just before  at their high point against Peers since pre-pandemic. The current situation of covid-19 and variant spread in India is terrible and one could imagine that some drastic measures may still be taken to contain the spread, which could slow down the economy dramatically. The 70% catchup vs peers to reach the December 2019 level (as of post-Delisting Proposal failure) has now been caught up. The VEDL 2-3yr forward EV/EBIT ratio is now less than 1 turn from its long-term average spread to peers. More below the fold.

Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) has, for the last year, been subject to dramatic corporate actions which have roiled the share price, and expectations. The launch last May of a Delisting Proposal by the promoters when the shares were trading sub Rs. 90/share led to a rally in the shares which could not even track peer stock performance, and when the Delisting Proposal failed, shares dropped to a dramatically low level, despite the fact that Vedanta owned its shareholders a substantial dividend from the pay-through of dividends from Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN). As commodity prices continued to rally, and VEDL paid a big dividend in October 2020, it looked like the time to double-up. Everyone "knew" the promoters were willing to pay 40-50% than the post-Delisting Proposal failure to take the whole thing private. I expected a buyback. 10 days after the CEO said "we have no plans to buy more shares" we got an off-market block purchase of 5% by the promoters in December at Rs 160, followed a couple of weeks later by a proposed Open Offer to buy another 10%, which was later upsized and up-priced - by 47%, and still the Promoters could only get 10% of the 17.5% they sought to buy. A month on from that and the shares are nearly 10% higher than the Open Offer Price while a Peer Basket is largely unchanged from two months back. This means VEDL shares are again (as they were just before  at their high point against Peers since pre-pandemic. The current situation of covid-19 and variant spread in India is terrible and one could imagine that some drastic measures may still be taken to contain the spread, which could slow down the economy dramatically. The 70% catchup vs peers to reach the December 2019 level (as of post-Delisting Proposal failure) has now been caught up. The VEDL 2-3yr forward EV/EBIT ratio is now less than 1 turn from its long-term average spread to peers. More below the fold.  

Vedanta Now Caught Up With Peers - A Different Skew Ahead

India

Hindustan Zinc is an Indian integrated mining and resources producer, specializing in zinc, lead, and silver, and is the world's second-largest zinc producer and among the top five silver producers globally. The company also engages in captive power generation and manufactures phosphatic fertilizers. Hindustan Zinc is headquartered in Udaipur, Rajasthan, India, and was founded in 1966.

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Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)

Vedanta ADR Clean-Up Offering

The Vedanta Offering to unwind the remaining ADR underlyings has been launched. It is US$160mm. Not huge, but not tiny. The fundamentals and...

Travis Lundy

Vedanta Demerger: Unlocking Value Through Strategic Pure-Plays

Vedanta Ltd sets record date for conglomerate split into 5 entities to eliminate discount and unlock value, but faces risks like listing delays...

Nimish Maheshwari

Vedanta Promoters Buy MORE Increasing Eventiness, But There Are Headwinds

VEDL has a flurry of news recently increasing "eventi-ness" of the name. Promoters are buying more (but not as much as they want), the SC has...

Travis Lundy

Vedanta To Eliminate Its ADRs - Creates VERY Interesting Possibilities

VEDL is going to eliminate its ADS. This is not benign. For anyone. Near-term or short-term. There are opportunities in the interim.

Travis Lundy

Vedanta Now Caught Up With Peers - A Different Skew Ahead

VEDL has been a rocket the last several months. And it still "owes" dividends of ~Rs 24/share to its shareholders. HZL results were salutary, but...

Travis Lundy

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Vedanta ADR Clean-Up Offering

The Vedanta Offering to unwind the remaining ADR underlyings has been launched. It is US$160mm. Not huge, but not tiny. The fundamentals and...

Travis Lundy

Vedanta Demerger: Unlocking Value Through Strategic Pure-Plays

​Vedanta Ltd sets record date for conglomerate split into 5 entities to eliminate discount and unlock value, but faces risks like listing delays...

Nimish Maheshwari

Vedanta Promoters Buy MORE Increasing Eventiness, But There Are Headwinds

VEDL has a flurry of news recently increasing "eventi-ness" of the name. Promoters are buying more (but not as much as they want), the SC has...

Travis Lundy

Vedanta To Eliminate Its ADRs - Creates VERY Interesting Possibilities

VEDL is going to eliminate its ADS. This is not benign. For anyone. Near-term or short-term. There are opportunities in the interim.

Travis Lundy

Vedanta Now Caught Up With Peers - A Different Skew Ahead

VEDL has been a rocket the last several months. And it still "owes" dividends of ~Rs 24/share to its shareholders. HZL results were salutary, but...

Travis Lundy

Vedanta Ltd sets record date for conglomerate split into 5 entities to eliminate discount and unlock value, but faces risks like listing delays...