IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is a speciality manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; (KKR US)</a> seeks to raise about US$750 million through listing Kokusai.   </li>
<li>Kokusai has the leading market share in the batch deposition equipment market and the second largest market share in the treatment equipment market, according to TechInsights and Gartner.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on a leading market share, strong IP, healthy forward revenue indicators, increasing recurring service revenue, solid gross margin trends and modest leverage.</li>
</ul>



Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a speciality manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment. KKR &amp; (KKR US) seeks to raise about US$750 million through listing Kokusai.   
Kokusai has the leading market share in the batch deposition equipment market and the second largest market share in the treatment equipment market, according to TechInsights and Gartner.
The key elements of the bull case rest on a leading market share, strong IP, healthy forward revenue indicators, increasing recurring service revenue, solid gross margin trends and modest leverage.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>KKR is looking to raise around US$750m via selling a stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> (KE) in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


KKR is looking to raise around US$750m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO.
KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Can't Avoid the Cycles

<ul>
<li>KKR is looking to raise around US$750m via selling a stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> (KE) in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


KKR is looking to raise around US$750m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO.
KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO - The Positives - Well Established with High Market Share

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last week, Bain Capital Japan and Japan Industrial Partners and Japan Industrial Solutions (the "Bain Consortium") announced it would launch a Tender Offer to buy out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8561:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Metals (5486 JP)</a> minority shareholders at ¥2181/share when all approvals had been received. Future dividends were cancelled. The first part of this series was in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bain-bids-up-big-for-hitachi-metals-5486-now-we-wait" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50820" rel="noopener">Bain Bids Up BIG For Hitachi Metals (5486) - Now We Wait</a>. The Tender Offer is expected to start in November. That gives current holders 8+ months to wait for their cash. Below we look at what waiting means.

Last week, Bain Capital Japan and Japan Industrial Partners and Japan Industrial Solutions (the "Bain Consortium") announced it would launch a Tender Offer to buy out Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) minority shareholders at ¥2181/share when all approvals had been received. Future dividends were cancelled. The first part of this series was in Bain Bids Up BIG For Hitachi Metals (5486) - Now We Wait. The Tender Offer is expected to start in November. That gives current holders 8+ months to wait for their cash. Below we look at what waiting means.

Hitachi Metals - Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a> has, for over a decade, been restructuring itself by selling subsidiaries here and buying them in there. There are two remaining after the somewhat recent sale of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14457:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP)</a>, de-consolidation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-capital-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14410:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Capital (8586 JP)</a>, and buy-in of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-high-tech-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7046:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi High-Tech (8036 JP)</a> (after a flurry of other deals to sell out stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-kokusai-electric-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2523:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Kokusai Electric (6756 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-koki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18359:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Koki (6581 JP)</a>, Hitachi Maxell and Clarion in the previous few years).
In October last year, I addressed the issue of the selldown of the last two <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8561:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Metals (5486 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-construction-machinery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19433:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP)</a> in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-right-trade-may-be-hitachi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44551" rel="noopener">The Right Trade May Be Hitachi</a>, which argued that Hitachi itself was probably the better deal than the subs. Since then, Hitachi is up 39.3%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-construction-machinery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19433:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP)</a> is up 3.6%, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8561:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Metals (5486 JP)</a> is up 23%. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a> has written a few times about Hitachi Metals and about how one might not be able to expect a very high takeout price through the sale process that Hitachi was running. I wholly agreed with Mio, because I think it is not an easy asset to sell later, but I couldn't come up with a reason to sell the stock because I expect funding is available, costs can be cut, Hitachi might keep 20% and sell a call option to help with funding, and if a company needs a lot of work to restructure, I am sure that Bain Consulting could be prevailed upon to provide their consulting services for a price (one of the dirty little secrets of private equity is that GPs get management and incentive fees on assets and sales, but profits in the interim come with costs, and some of those costs can be allocated to the GP as well).
Hitachi took in bids earlier this spring after running an auction process and three weeks ago an <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/659a5857-9369-4f9b-8595-06bb89888772" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> in the FT hit the tape saying "Bain nears $8bn deal to buy Hitachi Metals." That was around current market price give or take net debt so people were thinking there might not be a premium.
<div class="content-highlight">
Today, we got a deal announcement. Indeed, Bain is paying near US$8bn, but it is structured in such a way that Bain pays ¥1675/share to Hitachi and ¥2181/share to minorities, which produces a combined price just over ¥1900/share.
This approximates a decent result for everyone involved.  
</div>
More below the fold.

Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) has, for over a decade, been restructuring itself by selling subsidiaries here and buying them in there. There are two remaining after the somewhat recent sale of Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP), de-consolidation of Hitachi Capital (8586 JP), and buy-in of Hitachi High-Tech (8036 JP) (after a flurry of other deals to sell out stakes in Hitachi Kokusai Electric (6756 JP), Hitachi Koki (6581 JP), Hitachi Maxell and Clarion in the previous few years).
In October last year, I addressed the issue of the selldown of the last two Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) and Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP) in The Right Trade May Be Hitachi, which argued that Hitachi itself was probably the better deal than the subs. Since then, Hitachi is up 39.3%, Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP) is up 3.6%, and Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) is up 23%. 
Mio Kato has written a few times about Hitachi Metals and about how one might not be able to expect a very high takeout price through the sale process that Hitachi was running. I wholly agreed with Mio, because I think it is not an easy asset to sell later, but I couldn't come up with a reason to sell the stock because I expect funding is available, costs can be cut, Hitachi might keep 20% and sell a call option to help with funding, and if a company needs a lot of work to restructure, I am sure that Bain Consulting could be prevailed upon to provide their consulting services for a price (one of the dirty little secrets of private equity is that GPs get management and incentive fees on assets and sales, but profits in the interim come with costs, and some of those costs can be allocated to the GP as well).
Hitachi took in bids earlier this spring after running an auction process and three weeks ago an article in the FT hit the tape saying "Bain nears $8bn deal to buy Hitachi Metals." That was around current market price give or take net debt so people were thinking there might not be a premium.

Today, we got a deal announcement. Indeed, Bain is paying near US$8bn, but it is structured in such a way that Bain pays ¥1675/share to Hitachi and ¥2181/share to minorities, which produces a combined price just over ¥1900/share.
This approximates a decent result for everyone involved.  

More below the fold. 

Bain Bids Up BIG For Hitachi Metals (5486) - Now We Wait

Japan

Hitachi Kokusai Electric Inc., affiliated with Hitachi Ltd, manufactures mobile phones and other wireless communication equipment, and has mass production capacity for computer terminals.  The Company has unique know-how in semiconductor manufacturing equipment and processes its semiconductors at its subsidiary, Akita Denshi.

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Hitachi Kokusai Electric (6756 JP)

Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on a leading market share, strong IP, healthy forward revenue indicators, increasing recurring service...

Arun George

Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Can't Avoid the Cycles

KKR is looking to raise around US$750m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO. In this note we talk about the not...

Sumeet Singh

Hitachi Metals - Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?

Hitachi Metals - The Rate of Return is decent for an unlevered arb in JPY, but not great for a long-only investment. This bodes well for a changing...

Travis Lundy

Bain Bids Up BIG For Hitachi Metals (5486) - Now We Wait

Hitachi has agreed to sell Hitachi Metals to Bain/JIP/JIS. It is a complex transaction designed to get Hitachi out, get minorities a premium, get...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on a leading market share, strong IP, healthy forward revenue indicators, increasing recurring service...

Arun George

Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Can't Avoid the Cycles

KKR is looking to raise around US$750m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO. In this note we talk about the not...

Sumeet Singh

Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO - The Positives - Well Established with High Market Share

KKR is looking to raise around US$750m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO. In this note we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Hitachi Metals - Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?

Hitachi Metals - The Rate of Return is decent for an unlevered arb in JPY, but not great for a long-only investment. This bodes well for a changing...

Travis Lundy

Bain Bids Up BIG For Hitachi Metals (5486) - Now We Wait

Hitachi has agreed to sell Hitachi Metals to Bain/JIP/JIS. It is a complex transaction designed to get Hitachi out, get minorities a premium, get...

Travis Lundy