Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following on from the surprise development that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK)</a> had reduced its stake below 5%, I've had a few readers asking about hypothetical situations regarding its stake.</li>
<li>IF Mengniu is a seller, can't Mengniu simply sell its entire stake to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)</a> (XJF)? Can Mengniu sell to XJF above the Offer Price?</li>
<li>Both questions are addressed in the Takeovers Code. But only one is permitted.</li>
</ul>


Following on from the surprise development that China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) had reduced its stake below 5%, I've had a few readers asking about hypothetical situations regarding its stake.
IF Mengniu is a seller, can't Mengniu simply sell its entire stake to Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) (XJF)? Can Mengniu sell to XJF above the Offer Price?
Both questions are addressed in the Takeovers Code. But only one is permitted.


GAPack (468 HK): Additional Thoughts On Mengniu Selling

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Event-Driven

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)

<ul>
<li>Back on the 14th November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)</a> (PA Gooddoctor announced a change in use of proceeds, including the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.</li>
<li>A scrip option was concurrently afforded. The results of that scrip election have now been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0107/2025010701638.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a>, the completion of which, triggers an unconditional MGO from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-c2975d60-47cd-4246-a7a6-25297586242b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance  (601318 CH)</a>.</li>
<li>The MGO price is HK$6.12/share, a price made public last month. For those investors trading the event and who bought PA Gooddoctor cum dividend, it has worked out well.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 14th November, Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) (PA Gooddoctor announced a change in use of proceeds, including the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.
A scrip option was concurrently afforded. The results of that scrip election have now been announced, the completion of which, triggers an unconditional MGO from Ping An Insurance  (601318 CH).
The MGO price is HK$6.12/share, a price made public last month. For those investors trading the event and who bought PA Gooddoctor cum dividend, it has worked out well.


PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)'s Unconditional MGO

<ul>
<li>On 17 November 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a>  <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1117/2024111700031.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an EGM to approve the spin-off and separately list subsidiary Smithfield Foods on the NYSE or NASDAQ. </li>
<li>WHG, the world's largest pork producer, <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1206/2024120601148.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on the 6th December the spin-off overwhelmingly gained shareholder approval. </li>
<li>Yesterday, the Smithfield NASDAQ <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91388/000162828025000470/smithfieldfoods-sx1.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IPO doc</a> was made public. As per the filing: "the number and dollar amount of Smithfield Shares to be offered and sold have not been determined".</li>
</ul>


On 17 November 2024, WH Group (288 HK)  announced an EGM to approve the spin-off and separately list subsidiary Smithfield Foods on the NYSE or NASDAQ. 
WHG, the world's largest pork producer, announced on the 6th December the spin-off overwhelmingly gained shareholder approval. 
Yesterday, the Smithfield NASDAQ IPO doc was made public. As per the filing: "the number and dollar amount of Smithfield Shares to be offered and sold have not been determined".


WH Group (288 HK): Smithfield's IPO Doc Now Out

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 38 potential and close adds and 51 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>There have been many new listings in the last weeks of December. Some of them are fairly large and will be added and that increases the number of potential deletions.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 38 potential and close adds and 51 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
There have been many new listings in the last weeks of December. Some of them are fairly large and will be added and that increases the number of potential deletions.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025

<ul>
<li>Back on the 23rd October, flue gas treatment play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-boqi-environmental-hol" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26771:1" rel="noopener">China Boqi Environmental Hol (2377 HK)</a> announced a buyback of 15% of shares out, at HK$1.20/share, a 16.5% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>The Offer Doc was dispatched on the<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1128/2024112800878.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> 28th November</a>, and the Offer <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0103/2025010302020.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">closed</a> on the 3rd January.</li>
<li>304.6mn shares tendered against the buyback of 150.858mn shares, or a pro-ration of 49.53%. However, how the public shareholders tendered may provide a gauge for future Hong Kong Partial Offers. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 23rd October, flue gas treatment play China Boqi Environmental Hol (2377 HK) announced a buyback of 15% of shares out, at HK$1.20/share, a 16.5% premium to undisturbed.
The Offer Doc was dispatched on the 28th November, and the Offer closed on the 3rd January.
304.6mn shares tendered against the buyback of 150.858mn shares, or a pro-ration of 49.53%. However, how the public shareholders tendered may provide a gauge for future Hong Kong Partial Offers. 


Boqi Env (2377 HK): Takeaways From The Partial Offer

Hong Kong

HKBN is an integrated telecommunications and technology solutions provider offering broadband, mobile, and enterprise services to residential and business customers in Hong Kong. Its offerings include high-speed internet, voice services, IT outsourcing, cloud and data center solutions, cybersecurity, and an enterprise-level artificial intelligence platform. HKBN is headquartered in Hong Kong and was founded in 1992.

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HKBN (1310 HK)

GAPack (468 HK): Additional Thoughts On Mengniu Selling

China Mengniu can simply sell its entire stake to XJF; but not above the Offer Price. So what's stopping Mengniu if they appear to be selling down?

David Blennerhassett

PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)'s Unconditional MGO

If in for the arb and opting for scrip, I 'd have exited, or exiting my initial buy-in. If in for the arb and took cash, I'd also would have...

David Blennerhassett

WH Group (288 HK): Smithfield's IPO Doc Now Out

WHG could surprise the market with a higher than expected IPO price. I doubt it. Even applying a high-end value for Smithfield of ~US$10bn, a ~38%...

David Blennerhassett

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025

There could be 89 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 73 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

Boqi Env (2377 HK): Takeaways From The Partial Offer

~45% of the public shareholders tendering has been a useful benchmark in past Hong Kong Partial Offers, and so it was again for Boqi.

David Blennerhassett

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