Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 5th November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16415:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice Holdings (64 HK)</a> (GNH) <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1105/2024110501858.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a scrip Offer, by way of a Scheme, for 72.99%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29667:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK)</a> (GNF).</li>
<li>With an implied scrip price &amp; divvy of HK$1.116/share, against a book value of HK1.736/share - and net cash of ~HK$1.00/share - this is probably being down too cheaply.</li>
<li>GNH's Circular is now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0102/2025010203495.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>, with an EGM to be held on the 22nd Jan. GNF's Scheme Doc is expected to be dispatched one or before the 10th Feb. </li>
</ul>


On the 5th November, Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) (GNH) announced a scrip Offer, by way of a Scheme, for 72.99%-held Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK) (GNF).
With an implied scrip price &amp; divvy of HK$1.116/share, against a book value of HK1.736/share - and net cash of ~HK$1.00/share - this is probably being down too cheaply.
GNH's Circular is now out, with an EGM to be held on the 22nd Jan. GNF's Scheme Doc is expected to be dispatched one or before the 10th Feb. 


Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): EGM Set For Get Nice (64 HK)'s Scrip Offer

<ul>
<li>For the month of December 2024, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$16bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in December was ~46%. The average premium in 2024 was ~43%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of December 2024, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$16bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in December was ~46%. The average premium in 2024 was ~43%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2024: De Grey, Insignia, ESR Group, Fosun Tourism, HKBN, Pentamaster, Beenos

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In the UK, once a Bidder is named in a possible offer announcement, the Bidder has 28 days to either announce a firm Offer intention or walk away. </li>
<li>This is known as a 'put up or shut up' or 'PUSU' deadline. Hong Kong's takeover rules has no such provision.</li>
<li>It's ~21 weeks since co-founders Jeff Bi and Gang Hong tabled a non-binding Offer. With no firm Offer in sight, AND contesting a SAMR ruling, they should fold their tent.</li>
</ul>


In the UK, once a Bidder is named in a possible offer announcement, the Bidder has 28 days to either announce a firm Offer intention or walk away. 
This is known as a 'put up or shut up' or 'PUSU' deadline. Hong Kong's takeover rules has no such provision.
It's ~21 weeks since co-founders Jeff Bi and Gang Hong tabled a non-binding Offer. With no firm Offer in sight, AND contesting a SAMR ruling, they should fold their tent.


GAPack (468 HK): Hong Kong's Takeovers Code Needs A PUSU Rule

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29667:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-china-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26090:1" rel="noopener">Lifestyle China (2136 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renewable-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35211:1" rel="noopener">Renewable Japan (9522 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/latin-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8770:1" rel="noopener">Latin Resources (LRS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lac-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8480:1" rel="noopener">Lac Co Ltd (3857 JP)</a>.   </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Vesync (2148 HK), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU), Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK). 
Lowest spreads: Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Renewable Japan (9522 JP), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Latin Resources (LRS AU), Lac Co Ltd (3857 JP).   


Merger Arb Mondays (30 Dec) - ESR, Canvest, Vesync, GAPack, SDHS New Energy, CPMC, Makino, Arcadium

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda (7267 JP) </a> announced a HUGE ¥1.1trln buyback. At ~¥1500/share, this would increase EPS by 17+%.  Buy the shares in the low ¥1,400s. Expect this to be a range trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>'s Circular is now out. Hoome straight and done deal. </li>
<li>Murakami-San has started selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a>, earlier than expected. Best to get out first, ask questions later.</li>
</ul>



Honda (7267 JP)  announced a HUGE ¥1.1trln buyback. At ~¥1500/share, this would increase EPS by 17+%.  Buy the shares in the low ¥1,400s. Expect this to be a range trade.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)'s Circular is now out. Hoome straight and done deal. 
Murakami-San has started selling Exedy Corp (7278 JP), earlier than expected. Best to get out first, ask questions later.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Honda, Shanghai Henlius, Exedy, Arcadium Lithium

Hong Kong

HKBN is an integrated telecommunications and technology solutions provider offering broadband, mobile, and enterprise services to residential and business customers in Hong Kong. Its offerings include high-speed internet, voice services, IT outsourcing, cloud and data center solutions, cybersecurity, and an enterprise-level artificial intelligence platform. HKBN is headquartered in Hong Kong and was founded in 1992.

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HKBN (1310 HK)

Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): EGM Set For Get Nice (64 HK)'s Scrip Offer

The more interesting bet is GNH (64 HK) at a 74% discount to NAV and 0.21x P/B, which will (should) be taken out next. That may be worth a punt.

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2024: De Grey, Insignia, ESR Group, Fosun Tourism, HKBN, Pentamaster, Beenos

For Dec 2024, 13 new transactions were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$16bn. The Dec average premium for these new...

David Blennerhassett

GAPack (468 HK): Hong Kong's Takeovers Code Needs A PUSU Rule

It's ~21 weeks since co-founders Jeff Bi and Gang Hong tabled a non-binding Offer. With no firm Offer in sight, AND contesting a SAMR ruling, they...

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (30 Dec) - ESR, Canvest, Vesync, GAPack, SDHS New Energy, CPMC, Makino, Arcadium

This week, the highest gross spreads are Vesync (33.3%), Makino Milling (18.9%), Seven & I (16.0%), Arcadium Lithium (14.0%), Get Nice Financial...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Honda, Shanghai Henlius, Exedy, Arcadium Lithium

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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