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Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In Depth: Will wind go out of SPACs’ sails in Singapore and Hong Kong?</li><li>China’s cabinet vows stronger policy to boost jobs amid Covid upsurge</li><li>Yuan losses have room to run as Covid puts economy under siege</li></ul>

In Depth: Will wind go out of SPACs’ sails in Singapore and Hong Kong?China’s cabinet vows stronger policy to boost jobs amid Covid upsurgeYuan losses have room to run as Covid puts economy under siege

CX Daily: Will Wind Go Out of SPACs’ Sails in Singapore and Hong Kong?

<ul><li>Hong Kong health expert downplays city’s Covid fatality rate</li><li>Shanghai offers support for importing Covid drugs and vaccines as it battles outbreak</li><li>Distressed Chinese developer Sunac sweetens proposed bond extension plan</li></ul>

Hong Kong health expert downplays city’s Covid fatality rateShanghai offers support for importing Covid drugs and vaccines as it battles outbreakDistressed Chinese developer Sunac sweetens proposed bond extension plan

CX Daily: China’s Battle to Stabilize Its Economy

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global exchanges are adapting to a more price pressured environment in trading fees, including the growth of off-exchange trading</li>
<li>The most forward looking exchanges are actively diversifying their revenue base away from trading and transaction fees, and they are focusing on post-trade services, as well as monetising their access to “big data” and data flows</li>
<li>Select exchanges have accelerated their revenue diversification strategies through M&amp;A; two high profile examples are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intercontinental-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10221:1" rel="noopener">Intercontinental Exchange (ICE US)</a> acquiring Ellie Mae and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/london-stock-exchange-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22034:1" rel="noopener">London Stock Exchange (LSE LN)</a> acquiring Refinitiv which, in part, reflects the attraction of the “big data” opportunity</li>
<li>The recent merger rumours within the exchanges sector between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cboe-global-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20189:1" rel="noopener">Cboe Global Markets (CBOE US)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cme-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12353:1" rel="noopener">Cme Group Inc (CME US)</a> – even though this merger did not materialise – reflect the potential for cost savings and synergies from exchange mergers</li>
<li>In emerging markets, the shift away from trading revenues is also apparent, although the pace of change seems more measured due to regulatory constraints</li>
<li>Among developed market exchanges, we believe that ICE is the “poster child” on revenue transformation, and is not overly expensive on valuations, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-boerse-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21604:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Boerse Ag (DB1 GR)</a> being the value pick and we also find CBOE to be attractive; we believe that LSEG is still a “show me” story on Refinitiv integration, even if valuations are undemanding</li>
<li>In emerging markets, we believe that out-of-favour <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b3-sa-brasil-bolsa-balcao" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24580:1" rel="noopener">B3 Sa - Brasil Bolsa Balcao (B3SA3 BZ)</a> shares have potential to reverse the trend and re-rate on attractive valuations, with smaller cap <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bolsa-mexicana-de-valores-sab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24766:1" rel="noopener">Bolsa Mexicana De Valores Sab (BOLSAA MM)</a> attractive on both its broad revenue mix and valuations; we are bearish on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> shares, with the market overly positive on the exchange’s prospects, in our view</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">SGX (SGX SP)</a> is one to watch; management has more to do to diversify the revenue base, yet its valuations are undemanding and competition concerns may be overdone</li>
<li>We include the listed crypto exchange <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase (COIN US)</a> in this exchanges report for the first time; with its business model very geared towards trading and transaction fees, we are cautious on Coinbase given the very high volatility in both volumes and prices inherent in the world of crypto trading, as well as the regulatory hurdles</li>
<li>Risks to our positive views on B3, BolsaMex, ICE, CBOE and Deutsche Boerse include worse than expected post-trade and data and IT revenue generation as well as a more hostile regulatory climate; risks to our bearish views on HKEX and Coinbase are better than expected revenue and EBITDA growth</li>
</ul>


Global exchanges are adapting to a more price pressured environment in trading fees, including the growth of off-exchange trading
The most forward looking exchanges are actively diversifying their revenue base away from trading and transaction fees, and they are focusing on post-trade services, as well as monetising their access to “big data” and data flows
Select exchanges have accelerated their revenue diversification strategies through M&amp;A; two high profile examples are Intercontinental Exchange (ICE US) acquiring Ellie Mae and London Stock Exchange (LSE LN) acquiring Refinitiv which, in part, reflects the attraction of the “big data” opportunity
The recent merger rumours within the exchanges sector between Cboe Global Markets (CBOE US) &amp; Cme Group Inc (CME US) – even though this merger did not materialise – reflect the potential for cost savings and synergies from exchange mergers
In emerging markets, the shift away from trading revenues is also apparent, although the pace of change seems more measured due to regulatory constraints
Among developed market exchanges, we believe that ICE is the “poster child” on revenue transformation, and is not overly expensive on valuations, with Deutsche Boerse Ag (DB1 GR) being the value pick and we also find CBOE to be attractive; we believe that LSEG is still a “show me” story on Refinitiv integration, even if valuations are undemanding
In emerging markets, we believe that out-of-favour B3 Sa - Brasil Bolsa Balcao (B3SA3 BZ) shares have potential to reverse the trend and re-rate on attractive valuations, with smaller cap Bolsa Mexicana De Valores Sab (BOLSAA MM) attractive on both its broad revenue mix and valuations; we are bearish on HKEX (388 HK) shares, with the market overly positive on the exchange’s prospects, in our view

SGX (SGX SP) is one to watch; management has more to do to diversify the revenue base, yet its valuations are undemanding and competition concerns may be overdone
We include the listed crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN US) in this exchanges report for the first time; with its business model very geared towards trading and transaction fees, we are cautious on Coinbase given the very high volatility in both volumes and prices inherent in the world of crypto trading, as well as the regulatory hurdles
Risks to our positive views on B3, BolsaMex, ICE, CBOE and Deutsche Boerse include worse than expected post-trade and data and IT revenue generation as well as a more hostile regulatory climate; risks to our bearish views on HKEX and Coinbase are better than expected revenue and EBITDA growth


Exchanges – More than Just Trading Places

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

Whether we call this a SPAC bubble that has burst or a SPAC bull-run "correcting" itself, one thing is clear – the global SPAC market is cooling off. Cooling off... but not dead. SPACs are likely to play a much larger role in global equity markets than they have historically, and Asia is poised to play a larger role within that larger global equity markets role. We are already seeing evidence of this.Specifically, the recent increase in SPAC-related interest and activity in Asia by: 1) SPAC sponsors (growing number of Asia-based sponsors and foreign SPACs seeking Asia-based targets), 2) Asia's unicorns (several have announced huge SPAC deals), and 3) Asia's financial exchanges (which are increasingly enabling local SPAC listings, such as Singapore Exchange's new framework).It is still too soon to call anything an Asia SPAC "boom," but the growth is tangible and immediate enough for optimism. It motivated me to finally write about a topic I have been meaning to cover – i.e., ESG issues related to the SPAC vehicle itself, as well as to how SPACs are applied in supporting sustainability-related tech startups (e.g., electric vehicles, batteries/storage, clean energy).

Whether we call this a SPAC bubble that has burst or a SPAC bull-run "correcting" itself, one thing is clear – the global SPAC market is cooling off. Cooling off... but not dead. SPACs are likely to play a much larger role in global equity markets than they have historically, and Asia is poised to play a larger role within that larger global equity markets role. We are already seeing evidence of this.Specifically, the recent increase in SPAC-related interest and activity in Asia by: 1) SPAC sponsors (growing number of Asia-based sponsors and foreign SPACs seeking Asia-based targets), 2) Asia's unicorns (several have announced huge SPAC deals), and 3) Asia's financial exchanges (which are increasingly enabling local SPAC listings, such as Singapore Exchange's new framework).It is still too soon to call anything an Asia SPAC "boom," but the growth is tangible and immediate enough for optimism. It motivated me to finally write about a topic I have been meaning to cover – i.e., ESG issues related to the SPAC vehicle itself, as well as to how SPACs are applied in supporting sustainability-related tech startups (e.g., electric vehicles, batteries/storage, clean energy).

SPACs and ESG: Issues Related to the SPAC Vehicle Itself and Sustainability Use Cases

China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

<ul>
<li>China domestic activity indicators are weakening and missed expectations in August. Retail sales growth decelerated sharply to 2.5% year-over-year, vs 8.5% in July. Industrial production also slowed to 5.3% year-over-year, vs 6.4% in July. The most concerning development is in the property market. After housing activity turned significantly more negative from June to July, August registered another sequential declines in housing starts and property sales . <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> has retreated around 23% from its peak in February 2021. China market performance has been subdued given the resurge of COVID-19 cases, some property developers' credit risk and the uncertainty on policies.</li>
<li>We expect there will be some monetary stimulus policies to stabilize the economy.  Beijing has released a series of rules aiming to remake private education and tech sectors. to curb cost pressure and better serve ordinary people. The magnitude of policy change on these sectors is unprecedent. And the visibility of these changes remains clouded. But for short-term efforts, monetary tools, such as MLF (medium-term lending facility), could be utilized to inject liquidity into the market. </li>
<li>On financial innovation front, we have observed some breakthrough activities. 1) The long-awaited China A-share Index future finally received approval from regulators. The to-be-launched MSCI China A50 Connect Index will be a game changer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> derivative business as investors' increasing exposure in China A-share cash equity market and index future. 2) China also announced that a new stock exchange will soon be launched in Beijing. The new exchange will initially be formed by a subset of National Equity Exchange and Quotations (China OTC market) which has been in place since 2013. But Beijing Stock Exchange has ambition to grow into a venue for high-tech and high-growth companies.  </li>
</ul>


China domestic activity indicators are weakening and missed expectations in August. Retail sales growth decelerated sharply to 2.5% year-over-year, vs 8.5% in July. Industrial production also slowed to 5.3% year-over-year, vs 6.4% in July. The most concerning development is in the property market. After housing activity turned significantly more negative from June to July, August registered another sequential declines in housing starts and property sales . Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) has retreated around 23% from its peak in February 2021. China market performance has been subdued given the resurge of COVID-19 cases, some property developers' credit risk and the uncertainty on policies.
We expect there will be some monetary stimulus policies to stabilize the economy.  Beijing has released a series of rules aiming to remake private education and tech sectors. to curb cost pressure and better serve ordinary people. The magnitude of policy change on these sectors is unprecedent. And the visibility of these changes remains clouded. But for short-term efforts, monetary tools, such as MLF (medium-term lending facility), could be utilized to inject liquidity into the market. 
On financial innovation front, we have observed some breakthrough activities. 1) The long-awaited China A-share Index future finally received approval from regulators. The to-be-launched MSCI China A50 Connect Index will be a game changer for HKEX (388 HK) derivative business as investors' increasing exposure in China A-share cash equity market and index future. 2) China also announced that a new stock exchange will soon be launched in Beijing. The new exchange will initially be formed by a subset of National Equity Exchange and Quotations (China OTC market) which has been in place since 2013. But Beijing Stock Exchange has ambition to grow into a venue for high-tech and high-growth companies.  


China Equity Strategy: Growth Slowdown Risk, Potential Monetary Stimulus

Hong Kong

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) operates a range of equity, commodity, fixed income, and currency markets, providing listing, trading, clearing, and settlement services for securities and derivatives. It also functions as a frontline regulator for companies listed in Hong Kong. HKEX was formally established on March 6, 2000, and is headquartered in Exchange Square, Central, Hong Kong.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

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Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

CX Daily: Will Wind Go Out of SPACs’ Sails in Singapore and Hong Kong?

In Depth: Will wind go out of SPACs’ sails in Singapore and Hong Kong? China’s cabinet vows stronger policy to boost jobs amid Covid upsurge

Caixin Global

CX Daily: China’s Battle to Stabilize Its Economy

Hong Kong health expert downplays city’s Covid fatality rate; Shanghai offers support for importing Covid drugs and vaccines as it battles outbreak

Caixin Global

Exchanges – More than Just Trading Places

We assess exchanges based on revenue mix ex-trading; the poster child is ICE, other attractive stocks are Deutsche Borse, CBOE, B3 & BolsaMex, with...

Victor Galliano

China Equity Strategy: Growth Slowdown Risk, Potential Monetary Stimulus

China activity indicators are weakening and missed expectations in August. We expect there will be some monetary stimulus to stabilize the economic...

Roger Xie

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CX Daily: Will Wind Go Out of SPACs’ Sails in Singapore and Hong Kong?

In Depth: Will wind go out of SPACs’ sails in Singapore and Hong Kong? China’s cabinet vows stronger policy to boost jobs amid Covid upsurge

Caixin Global

CX Daily: China’s Battle to Stabilize Its Economy

Hong Kong health expert downplays city’s Covid fatality rate; Shanghai offers support for importing Covid drugs and vaccines as it battles outbreak

Caixin Global

Exchanges – More than Just Trading Places

We assess exchanges based on revenue mix ex-trading; the poster child is ICE, other attractive stocks are Deutsche Borse, CBOE, B3 & BolsaMex, with...

Victor Galliano

SPACs and ESG: Issues Related to the SPAC Vehicle Itself and Sustainability Use Cases

In Asia there is an undeniable upswell in SPAC activity – by SPAC sponsors, crown-jewel unicorns, and bourses like SGX. This covers ESG issues...

Kyle Rudden

China Equity Strategy: Growth Slowdown Risk, Potential Monetary Stimulus

China activity indicators are weakening and missed expectations in August. We expect there will be some monetary stimulus to stabilize the economic...

Roger Xie