Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Screws Tighten:The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) is seeking to put forth regulatory reforms on Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC) and the conflicts of interests which occur; and*Long Line Of Unintended Consequences: The majority of the 145 US-listed SPACs between 2015-19 remain below their USD 10 per share offering price and only seven have actually returned capital to investors. As the world heads toward a zero interest rate environment coupled with the giant vortex of skittish liquidity backstopped by central banks, the SPAC frenzy looks to be just the latest in a long line of unintended consequences of risk taking.

*Screws Tighten:The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) is seeking to put forth regulatory reforms on Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC) and the conflicts of interests which occur; and*Long Line Of Unintended Consequences: The majority of the 145 US-listed SPACs between 2015-19 remain below their USD 10 per share offering price and only seven have actually returned capital to investors. As the world heads toward a zero interest rate environment coupled with the giant vortex of skittish liquidity backstopped by central banks, the SPAC frenzy looks to be just the latest in a long line of unintended consequences of risk taking. 

*Mainland China Crackdown: Unsurprisingly, this past week mainland China has continued its steady official crackdown on cryptoccurency, reiterating its ban on providing cryptocurrency services, placing pressure on bitcoin miners, etc; and *Tether Flows: Given the mainland Chinese crackdown, it would appear that investors don't understand Tether’s systemic risks; and/or mainland Chinese-based investors are aggressively moving funds out of the country via this channel prior to it being shut down completely. If  authorities decide the shut the Tether channel over its use for moving large amounts of capital out of mainland China, cryptocurrency market liquidity would essentially dry up as Tether accounts for over 60% of global cryptocurrency daily trading volumes.

*Mainland China Crackdown: Unsurprisingly, this past week mainland China has continued its steady official crackdown on cryptoccurency, reiterating its ban on providing cryptocurrency services, placing pressure on bitcoin miners, etc; and *Tether Flows: Given the mainland Chinese crackdown, it would appear that investors don't understand Tether’s systemic risks; and/or mainland Chinese-based investors are aggressively moving funds out of the country via this channel prior to it being shut down completely. If  authorities decide the shut the Tether channel over its use for moving large amounts of capital out of mainland China, cryptocurrency market liquidity would essentially dry up as Tether accounts for over 60% of global cryptocurrency daily trading volumes. 

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
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<td style="width: 726.047px;">Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/213/768/original/image_768460236451623962508577.png?1623962508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="213768"></figure>

Source: Our analysis
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).



Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook





Source: Our analysis




Related Insights
China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows 
Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer 
China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears 
China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game 
Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May 
ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story 
BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Allocations in the Financials sector have broken below the decade long range.  In their place are increased exposures in Technology and Consumer Discretionary companies.  At the moment, allocations within the sector are consolidating, with Asia Ex-Japan funds actively increasing weights, but still remaining a long way below previous levels. In this analysis, we look at the mechanics of the downturn, identifying the countries and stocks hardest hit.  We then look at the extent to which Financials stocks have consolidated and moved towards the early stages of a recovery.

Allocations in the Financials sector have broken below the decade long range.  In their place are increased exposures in Technology and Consumer Discretionary companies.  At the moment, allocations within the sector are consolidating, with Asia Ex-Japan funds actively increasing weights, but still remaining a long way below previous levels. In this analysis, we look at the mechanics of the downturn, identifying the countries and stocks hardest hit.  We then look at the extent to which Financials stocks have consolidated and moved towards the early stages of a recovery.

Asia Ex-Japan Financials.  Slowly Regaining the Faith.

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

We see those big numbers in the press, almost daily it seems. About ESG assets under management (AUM) reaching US$40 trillion, expected to hit US$53 trillion by 2025. Or about quarterly ESG fund flows nearing US$100 billion, and the seismic shift in ESG AUM to passively-managed funds.Recent growth in SRI (sustainable and responsible investing) and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) assets and investment products would not be possible without the growing ecosystem of index providers, and the SRI/ESG indices and benchmarks that they create.The ongoing boom in SRI/ESG indexing, which shows no signs of slowing, creates new opportunies for investors – and I do not mean investing in indexed mutual funds or ETFs. Too obvious, and too retail. I am referring to emergent opportunities associated with SRI/ESG index arbitrage.Index rebalancing/reconstitution events often create windows of abnormal returns for constituents being re-weighted, added, or dropped. That much is obvious, and the effects of broad market index changes are well-known. For SRI/ESG indices, this is uncharted territory with huge potential.This Smartkarma Original looks at the evolving SRI/ESG indexing landscape, and more importantly the emergent investing (e.g., stocks of listed indexers) and trading (e.g., arbitraging index changes) strategies arising from this global boom in SRI/ESG indices... from an Original perspective.<h2>WHAT'S ORIGINAL?</h2>Typically, discussions about SRI/ESG indices focus on their performance and in the context of that age-old "ESG-Alpha" debate – i.e., whether incorporating ESG factors into the investment process is worth the effort. To be clear, that is an important debate to have (and win). However, this report takes a different angle on SRI/ESG indices by focusing on investing and trading and strategies that capitalise on the boom in SRI/ESG indices. Theory (and a little speculation) backed by analysis.

We see those big numbers in the press, almost daily it seems. About ESG assets under management (AUM) reaching US$40 trillion, expected to hit US$53 trillion by 2025. Or about quarterly ESG fund flows nearing US$100 billion, and the seismic shift in ESG AUM to passively-managed funds.Recent growth in SRI (sustainable and responsible investing) and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) assets and investment products would not be possible without the growing ecosystem of index providers, and the SRI/ESG indices and benchmarks that they create.The ongoing boom in SRI/ESG indexing, which shows no signs of slowing, creates new opportunies for investors – and I do not mean investing in indexed mutual funds or ETFs. Too obvious, and too retail. I am referring to emergent opportunities associated with SRI/ESG index arbitrage.Index rebalancing/reconstitution events often create windows of abnormal returns for constituents being re-weighted, added, or dropped. That much is obvious, and the effects of broad market index changes are well-known. For SRI/ESG indices, this is uncharted territory with huge potential.This Smartkarma Original looks at the evolving SRI/ESG indexing landscape, and more importantly the emergent investing (e.g., stocks of listed indexers) and trading (e.g., arbitraging index changes) strategies arising from this global boom in SRI/ESG indices... from an Original perspective.WHAT'S ORIGINAL?Typically, discussions about SRI/ESG indices focus on their performance and in the context of that age-old "ESG-Alpha" debate – i.e., whether incorporating ESG factors into the investment process is worth the effort. To be clear, that is an important debate to have (and win). However, this report takes a different angle on SRI/ESG indices by focusing on investing and trading and strategies that capitalise on the boom in SRI/ESG indices. Theory (and a little speculation) backed by analysis.

Sustainability and ESG Indices: A Booming Ecosystem and New Investing and Trading Opportunities

Hong Kong

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) operates a range of equity, commodity, fixed income, and currency markets, providing listing, trading, clearing, and settlement services for securities and derivatives. It also functions as a frontline regulator for companies listed in Hong Kong. HKEX was formally established on March 6, 2000, and is headquartered in Exchange Square, Central, Hong Kong.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

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Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

SPAC-Tacle

SPECIAL PURPOSE ACQUISITION COMPANIES: FINRA is seeking to put forth regulatory reforms on SPACs and the conflicts of interests which occur.

Thomas J. Monaco

Tether – Holding On By A String

TETHER: Mainland China is cracking down on crypto. If authorities decide to close Tether, the cryptocurrency market liquidity could essentially dry...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Our Silver Linings Playbook outlines our views on the China financials names that are most likely to remain resilient in the face of macro...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Asia Ex-Japan Financials. Slowly Regaining the Faith.

Active Asia Ex-Japan managers move back in to the Financials sector after a period of heavy rotation, however allocations remain well below...

Steven Holden

Sustainability and ESG Indices: A Booming Ecosystem and New Investing and Trading Opportunities

Index rebalancing and reconstitution often creates a window of abnormal returns (and opportunity). For broad market indices, these effects are well...

Kyle Rudden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)