Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US)</a> at the close of trading on 19 December.</li>
<li>Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> add at the close tomorrow.</li>
<li>The HA premiums for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44224:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK)</a> dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) at the close of trading on 19 December.
Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an HSCEI INDEX add at the close tomorrow.
The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.


FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus

<ul>
<li>Following two periods of profitability, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the close on 5 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> is also an add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>


Following two periods of profitability, Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 December.

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is also an add to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for Alibaba (9988 HK) at the December rebalance.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bolsa Mexicana De Valores Sab / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We upgrade BolsaMex to a buy rating; we believe that it is too cheap to ignore and that it has sound growth credentials with its healthy share of post-trade revenues</li>
<li>We downgrade B3 Exchange to a neutral from buy, after its strong share price performance since mid-October lows; we feel it is still attractive but not as compelling as BolsaMex</li>
<li>We upgrade BSE to a neutral rating from sell despite it trading on rich fundamental valuations; India’s strong IPO pipeline is one major factor in de-railing our sell recommendation</li>
</ul>


We upgrade BolsaMex to a buy rating; we believe that it is too cheap to ignore and that it has sound growth credentials with its healthy share of post-trade revenues
We downgrade B3 Exchange to a neutral from buy, after its strong share price performance since mid-October lows; we feel it is still attractive but not as compelling as BolsaMex
We upgrade BSE to a neutral rating from sell despite it trading on rich fundamental valuations; India’s strong IPO pipeline is one major factor in de-railing our sell recommendation


GEM Exchanges –Bolsa Mexicana (BOLSAA MM) Is Our Top Pick

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Mandarin Oriental International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A sale - partial or otherwise - of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</a>'s One Causeway Bay (OCB) was always on the cards. But I didn't see an Offer coming. </li>
<li>Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a> is seeking to take out MAND's minorities at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>That's a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Unlike the 2021 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic (JS SP)</a> Offer, Matheson is required to abstain from voting on this takeover. </li>
</ul>


A sale - partial or otherwise - of Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)'s One Causeway Bay (OCB) was always on the cards. But I didn't see an Offer coming. 
Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba (9988 HK), Jardine Matheson (JM SP) is seeking to take out MAND's minorities at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.
That's a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Unlike the 2021 Jardine Strategic (JS SP) Offer, Matheson is required to abstain from voting on this takeover. 


Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Matheson's Full Offer

B3  - Brasil Bolsa Balcao / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We stick with Brazilian exchange B3 as our buy pick, as the scorecard indicates; data represents the highest share of total revenues versus peers and its post-trade revenues are understated</li>
<li>We downgrade Hong Kong Exchange to a neutral from buy, after its strong share price performance YTD; we feel much growth potential is discounted at current valuations</li>
<li>We downgrade BSE to a sell rating as it trades on rich fundamental valuations making it vulnerable to negative earnings surprises; its EBITDA margin no longer lags its peer group</li>
</ul>


We stick with Brazilian exchange B3 as our buy pick, as the scorecard indicates; data represents the highest share of total revenues versus peers and its post-trade revenues are understated
We downgrade Hong Kong Exchange to a neutral from buy, after its strong share price performance YTD; we feel much growth potential is discounted at current valuations
We downgrade BSE to a sell rating as it trades on rich fundamental valuations making it vulnerable to negative earnings surprises; its EBITDA margin no longer lags its peer group


GEM Exchanges –Scorecard Confirms Brazilian Exchange B3 (B3SA3 BZ) As Our Top Pick

Hong Kong

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Limited owns and operates the stock exchange, futures exchange, and their related clearing houses in Hong Kong.  The Company provides the trading platforms for a range of cash and derivatives products and the facilities for processing trades.

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HKEX (388 HK)

FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus

There are 3 changes for the FXI in Dec. 2 adds will also be added to a global index at the same time while the other is an HSCEI add at the close...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Innovent Bio is an add in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn. Innovent Bio has also been added to the HSCEI,...

Brian Freitas

GEM Exchanges –Bolsa Mexicana (BOLSAA MM) Is Our Top Pick

We Upgrade BolsaMex to buy for its deep value, strong post-trade revenues, more attractive than downgraded-to-neutral B3; BSE upgraded to neutral...

Victor Galliano

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Matheson's Full Offer

The Scheme Doc is out for MAND. The Court Meeting is the 8th December. As previously noted "the Mandarin Oriental Transaction Committee, which has...

David Blennerhassett

GEM Exchanges –Scorecard Confirms Brazilian Exchange B3 (B3SA3 BZ) As Our Top Pick

In GEM exchanges, stick with B3 as our buy due to attractive value and low PEG, downgrade HKEx to neutral, and downgrade BSE to sell due to rich...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus

There are 3 changes for the FXI in Dec. 2 adds will also be added to a global index at the same time while the other is an HSCEI add at the close...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Innovent Bio is an add in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn. Innovent Bio has also been added to the HSCEI,...

Brian Freitas

GEM Exchanges –Bolsa Mexicana (BOLSAA MM) Is Our Top Pick

​We Upgrade BolsaMex to buy for its deep value, strong post-trade revenues, more attractive than downgraded-to-neutral B3; BSE upgraded to neutral...

Victor Galliano

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Matheson's Full Offer

The Scheme Doc is out for MAND. The Court Meeting is the 8th December. As previously noted "the Mandarin Oriental Transaction Committee, which has...

David Blennerhassett

GEM Exchanges –Scorecard Confirms Brazilian Exchange B3 (B3SA3 BZ) As Our Top Pick

​In GEM exchanges, stick with B3 as our buy due to attractive value and low PEG, downgrade HKEx to neutral, and downgrade BSE to sell due to rich...

Victor Galliano

We Upgrade BolsaMex to buy for its deep value, strong post-trade revenues, more attractive than downgraded-to-neutral B3; BSE upgraded to neutral...

In GEM exchanges, stick with B3 as our buy due to attractive value and low PEG, downgrade HKEx to neutral, and downgrade BSE to sell due to rich...