Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Implied volatility has increased across the board, but while some stocks recorded a 5-10% increase, other just added 1-2%. Upcoming November earnings start to shape the term structure.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.

Highlights: Implied volatility has increased across the board, but while some stocks recorded a 5-10% increase, other just added 1-2%. Upcoming November earnings start to shape the term structure.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>1-Week directional forecast for the Asian indices and stocks we track, based on our proprietary probability model.</li>
<li>OVERBOUGHT:  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI Index</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> .</li>
<li>OVERSOLD: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD Company (1211 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> .</li>
</ul>


1-Week directional forecast for the Asian indices and stocks we track, based on our proprietary probability model.
OVERBOUGHT:  Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , HSI Index , KOSPI 200 INDEX , Nikkei 225 .
OVERSOLD: BYD Company (1211 HK) , S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX .


Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 15-19

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>YTD, H-share securities companies outperformed the HSI and HSCEI, but valuations are still undemanding at 12.7x and 11.7x PERs for FY25 and FY26.</li>
<li>2H25F earnings for the sector are too conservative at -2.5%, compared with 64.9% YoY growth in 1H25. There is significant earnings upgrade potential after the 3Q25 result announcements.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-galaxy-securities-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:165:1" rel="noopener">China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/everbright-securities-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22736:1" rel="noopener">Everbright Securities (H) (6178 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csc-financial-co-ltd-115216b6-b1c3-42f3-a314-a7ed93ea0b8e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23710:1" rel="noopener">CSC Financial (6066 HK)</a> appear interesting.</li>
</ul>


YTD, H-share securities companies outperformed the HSI and HSCEI, but valuations are still undemanding at 12.7x and 11.7x PERs for FY25 and FY26.
2H25F earnings for the sector are too conservative at -2.5%, compared with 64.9% YoY growth in 1H25. There is significant earnings upgrade potential after the 3Q25 result announcements.

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK), China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK), Everbright Securities (H) (6178 HK), and CSC Financial (6066 HK) appear interesting.


China Strategy: Interesting H-Share Securities Companies

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Major stocks, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, trade at historically cheap implied volatility. Upcoming earnings are starting to be reflected in November IV.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.

Highlights: Major stocks, including Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), and Meituan (3690 HK), trade at historically cheap implied volatility. Upcoming earnings are starting to be reflected in November IV.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


Volatility Cones: Spotting Opportunities in Tencent, JD.com, Ping An & More

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Macro assets reveal shifting volatility landscapes, with inexpensive implied vols, seasonal headwinds, and notable divergences across key markets.</li>
<li>Seasonal pressures are turning negative, with September historically weaker, while risk-reward spreads highlight CSI300 strength and SPASX200 vulnerability.</li>
<li>Implied vols remain inexpensive across most assets, with NKY, Nifty, and SPASX200 near historic lows despite shifting market dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Macro assets reveal shifting volatility landscapes, with inexpensive implied vols, seasonal headwinds, and notable divergences across key markets.
Seasonal pressures are turning negative, with September historically weaker, while risk-reward spreads highlight CSI300 strength and SPASX200 vulnerability.
Implied vols remain inexpensive across most assets, with NKY, Nifty, and SPASX200 near historic lows despite shifting market dynamics.


Global Macro Outlook (September): Cheap Vols Meet Seasonal Weakness Across Key Assets

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap

Volatility cones for 8 popular HK stocks help traders and investors spot opportunities. The IV term structure is increasingly shaped by the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 15-19

Our weekly stocks outlook directional forecast, generated with on our proprietary probability models. Overbought markets are expected to go down,...

Nico Rosti

Volatility Cones: Spotting Opportunities in Tencent, JD.com, Ping An & More

Tencent, HSBC, Meituan, JD.com, Ping An, and Xiaomi trade below the 10th percentile for one-month implied volatility, highlighting potential...

Gaudenz Schneider

Global Macro Outlook (September): Cheap Vols Meet Seasonal Weakness Across Key Assets

September outlook highlights inexpensive implied vols, seasonal pressures, and risk-reward spreads that favor CSI300 while underscoring poorrisk...

John Ley

HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap

Volatility cones for 8 popular HK stocks help traders and investors spot opportunities. The IV term structure is increasingly shaped by the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 15-19

​Our weekly stocks outlook directional forecast, generated with on our proprietary probability models. Overbought markets are expected to go down,...

Nico Rosti

China Strategy: Interesting H-Share Securities Companies

​H-share securities companies show strong performance and potential for earnings upgrades, with undemanding valuations. CICC, China Galaxy,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Volatility Cones: Spotting Opportunities in Tencent, JD.com, Ping An & More

Tencent, HSBC, Meituan, JD.com, Ping An, and Xiaomi trade below the 10th percentile for one-month implied volatility, highlighting potential...

Gaudenz Schneider

Global Macro Outlook (September): Cheap Vols Meet Seasonal Weakness Across Key Assets

September outlook highlights inexpensive implied vols, seasonal pressures, and risk-reward spreads that favor CSI300 while underscoring poorrisk...

John Ley

Our weekly stocks outlook directional forecast, generated with on our proprietary probability models. Overbought markets are expected to go down,...

H-share securities companies show strong performance and potential for earnings upgrades, with undemanding valuations. CICC, China Galaxy,...