Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> reported 2Q25 results last week, beating expectations and fueling a 5.5% move in the stock.</li>
<li>
Market Reaction: Shares rallied while front-end options saw a pronounced volatility crush, rotating the term structure back into contango.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This note unpacks Tencent’s price action and the evolving volatility setup.</li>
</ul>



Context:Tencent (700 HK) reported 2Q25 results last week, beating expectations and fueling a 5.5% move in the stock.

Market Reaction: Shares rallied while front-end options saw a pronounced volatility crush, rotating the term structure back into contango.

Why Read: This note unpacks Tencent’s price action and the evolving volatility setup.


Tencent (700 HK): Rally Before Results, Options Market Repricing After

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The prospect of jumbo US rate cuts is juicing asset markets</li>
<li>Overseas Capital is starting to move into domestic Chinese equities</li>
<li>The Precious metals ETFs are breaking out -looking at laggards</li>
</ul>


The prospect of jumbo US rate cuts is juicing asset markets
Overseas Capital is starting to move into domestic Chinese equities
The Precious metals ETFs are breaking out -looking at laggards


Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>The setup for this earnings release is interesting as Xiaomi has underperformed HSI since the end of June.</li>
<li>Xiaomi’s Q2 earnings setup features low vols a strong beat record and interesting Q2 dynamics.</li>
<li>Implied vol sits near historic lows despite the approaching earnings. </li>
</ul>


The setup for this earnings release is interesting as Xiaomi has underperformed HSI since the end of June.
Xiaomi’s Q2 earnings setup features low vols a strong beat record and interesting Q2 dynamics.
Implied vol sits near historic lows despite the approaching earnings. 


Xiaomi (1810.HK) Q2 Earnings: Setup Features Low Volatility and Recent Underperformance

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>Analyzing Asian markets' long term return cyclicality, we notice that the durations of upcycles and downcycles vary across markets. Within the same market, often the upcycle and downcycle durations differ.</li>
<li>We conclude that in Q4 2025, Korea, Taiwan and Philippines are likely to move up. Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore seem likely to decline.</li>
<li>An obvious caveat is: this method of predicting returns involves purely pattern recognition, not fundamental reasoning. While the markets mostly adhere to the observed patterns, they don’t always do so.</li>
</ul>


Analyzing Asian markets' long term return cyclicality, we notice that the durations of upcycles and downcycles vary across markets. Within the same market, often the upcycle and downcycle durations differ.
We conclude that in Q4 2025, Korea, Taiwan and Philippines are likely to move up. Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore seem likely to decline.
An obvious caveat is: this method of predicting returns involves purely pattern recognition, not fundamental reasoning. While the markets mostly adhere to the observed patterns, they don’t always do so.


Asian Equities: Cyclical Return Patterns – a Long-Term Analysis

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK time. The stock is in a low-volatility phase, but options traders are watching closely.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Option prices imply a post-earnings move near the top of Tencent’s historical range.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Gain insight into how historic patterns and option pricing shape risk and opportunity ahead of Tencent’s earnings release.</li>
</ul>



Context: Tencent (700 HK)is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK time. The stock is in a low-volatility phase, but options traders are watching closely.

Highlight: Option prices imply a post-earnings move near the top of Tencent’s historical range.

Why Read: Gain insight into how historic patterns and option pricing shape risk and opportunity ahead of Tencent’s earnings release.


Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Tencent (700 HK): Rally Before Results, Options Market Repricing After

Tencent’s 2Q25 earnings beat driving a 5.5% stock increase and a volatility reset after the event, offering fresh insights into valuation and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Chinese breakout and laggards in the precious metal space

Rikki Malik

Xiaomi (1810.HK) Q2 Earnings: Setup Features Low Volatility and Recent Underperformance

Xiaomi's upcoming earnings release is intriguing due to underperformance, low volatility, strong beat record, and historic lows in historic...

John Ley

Asian Equities: Cyclical Return Patterns – a Long-Term Analysis

Asian markets' quarterly returns show varying upcycle and downcycle durations. We expect Korea, Taiwan, & Philippines to rise in Q4 25 while HK,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities

Tencent (700 HK) reports tomorrow, Wednesday, 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK. The stock traded sideways over the past four days. Historic move on...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent (700 HK): Rally Before Results, Options Market Repricing After

Tencent’s 2Q25 earnings beat driving a 5.5% stock increase and a volatility reset after the event, offering fresh insights into valuation and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Chinese breakout and laggards in the precious metal space

Rikki Malik

Xiaomi (1810.HK) Q2 Earnings: Setup Features Low Volatility and Recent Underperformance

​Xiaomi's upcoming earnings release is intriguing due to underperformance, low volatility, strong beat record, and historic lows in historic...

John Ley

Asian Equities: Cyclical Return Patterns – a Long-Term Analysis

​Asian markets' quarterly returns show varying upcycle and downcycle durations. We expect Korea, Taiwan, & Philippines to rise in Q4 25 while HK,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities

Tencent (700 HK) reports tomorrow, Wednesday, 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK. The stock traded sideways over the past four days. Historic move on...

Gaudenz Schneider

Xiaomi's upcoming earnings release is intriguing due to underperformance, low volatility, strong beat record, and historic lows in historic...

Asian markets' quarterly returns show varying upcycle and downcycle durations. We expect Korea, Taiwan, & Philippines to rise in Q4 25 while HK,...