Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The setup for this earnings release is interesting as Xiaomi has underperformed HSI since the end of June.</li>
<li>Xiaomi’s Q2 earnings setup features low vols a strong beat record and interesting Q2 dynamics.</li>
<li>Implied vol sits near historic lows despite the approaching earnings. </li>
</ul>


The setup for this earnings release is interesting as Xiaomi has underperformed HSI since the end of June.
Xiaomi’s Q2 earnings setup features low vols a strong beat record and interesting Q2 dynamics.
Implied vol sits near historic lows despite the approaching earnings. 


Xiaomi (1810.HK) Q2 Earnings: Setup Features Low Volatility and Recent Underperformance

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Analyzing Asian markets' long term return cyclicality, we notice that the durations of upcycles and downcycles vary across markets. Within the same market, often the upcycle and downcycle durations differ.</li>
<li>We conclude that in Q4 2025, Korea, Taiwan and Philippines are likely to move up. Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore seem likely to decline.</li>
<li>An obvious caveat is: this method of predicting returns involves purely pattern recognition, not fundamental reasoning. While the markets mostly adhere to the observed patterns, they don’t always do so.</li>
</ul>


Analyzing Asian markets' long term return cyclicality, we notice that the durations of upcycles and downcycles vary across markets. Within the same market, often the upcycle and downcycle durations differ.
We conclude that in Q4 2025, Korea, Taiwan and Philippines are likely to move up. Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore seem likely to decline.
An obvious caveat is: this method of predicting returns involves purely pattern recognition, not fundamental reasoning. While the markets mostly adhere to the observed patterns, they don’t always do so.


Asian Equities: Cyclical Return Patterns – a Long-Term Analysis

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK time. The stock is in a low-volatility phase, but options traders are watching closely.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Option prices imply a post-earnings move near the top of Tencent’s historical range.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Gain insight into how historic patterns and option pricing shape risk and opportunity ahead of Tencent’s earnings release.</li>
</ul>



Context: Tencent (700 HK)is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK time. The stock is in a low-volatility phase, but options traders are watching closely.

Highlight: Option prices imply a post-earnings move near the top of Tencent’s historical range.

Why Read: Gain insight into how historic patterns and option pricing shape risk and opportunity ahead of Tencent’s earnings release.


Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities

<ul>
<li>Tencent approaches earnings with low volatility and steady outperformance versus HSI.</li>
<li>Volatilities are historically low with an earnings release on tap.  </li>
<li>Options market expects a modest move despite recent Tencent momentum.</li>
</ul>


Tencent approaches earnings with low volatility and steady outperformance versus HSI.
Volatilities are historically low with an earnings release on tap.  
Options market expects a modest move despite recent Tencent momentum.


Tencent (700.HK) Q2 Earnings: Rally Into Earnings on Historically Low Volatility

<ul>
<li>Seasonal patterns shift in August, with weaker average returns and greater downside skew supporting a case for selective hedging.</li>
<li>Most markets are at or near 52-week highs, further strengthening the argument for protective positioning.</li>
<li>Unlike July’s consistent vol-selling setup, August presents a more mixed environment for volatility strategies.</li>
</ul>


Seasonal patterns shift in August, with weaker average returns and greater downside skew supporting a case for selective hedging.
Most markets are at or near 52-week highs, further strengthening the argument for protective positioning.
Unlike July’s consistent vol-selling setup, August presents a more mixed environment for volatility strategies.


Global Macro Outlook (Aug): Risk Builds Amid Uneven Macro Picture

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Xiaomi (1810.HK) Q2 Earnings: Setup Features Low Volatility and Recent Underperformance

Xiaomi's upcoming earnings release is intriguing due to underperformance, low volatility, strong beat record, and historic lows in historic...

John Ley

Asian Equities: Cyclical Return Patterns – a Long-Term Analysis

Asian markets' quarterly returns show varying upcycle and downcycle durations. We expect Korea, Taiwan, & Philippines to rise in Q4 25 while HK,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities

Tencent (700 HK) reports tomorrow, Wednesday, 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK. The stock traded sideways over the past four days. Historic move on...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent (700.HK) Q2 Earnings: Rally Into Earnings on Historically Low Volatility

Tencent heads into Q2 earnings with strong gains and low volatility. We examine the implied move, past Q2 results, implied volatility and post...

John Ley

Global Macro Outlook (Aug): Risk Builds Amid Uneven Macro Picture

August brings a shift in seasonal patterns, with weaker returns and greater downside risk, making a case for selective hedging with markets near...

John Ley

Xiaomi (1810.HK) Q2 Earnings: Setup Features Low Volatility and Recent Underperformance

​Xiaomi's upcoming earnings release is intriguing due to underperformance, low volatility, strong beat record, and historic lows in historic...

John Ley

Asian Equities: Cyclical Return Patterns – a Long-Term Analysis

​Asian markets' quarterly returns show varying upcycle and downcycle durations. We expect Korea, Taiwan, & Philippines to rise in Q4 25 while HK,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities

Tencent (700 HK) reports tomorrow, Wednesday, 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK. The stock traded sideways over the past four days. Historic move on...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent (700.HK) Q2 Earnings: Rally Into Earnings on Historically Low Volatility

Tencent heads into Q2 earnings with strong gains and low volatility. We examine the implied move, past Q2 results, implied volatility and post...

John Ley

Global Macro Outlook (Aug): Risk Builds Amid Uneven Macro Picture

​August brings a shift in seasonal patterns, with weaker returns and greater downside risk, making a case for selective hedging with markets near...

John Ley

Xiaomi's upcoming earnings release is intriguing due to underperformance, low volatility, strong beat record, and historic lows in historic...

Asian markets' quarterly returns show varying upcycle and downcycle durations. We expect Korea, Taiwan, & Philippines to rise in Q4 25 while HK,...

August brings a shift in seasonal patterns, with weaker returns and greater downside risk, making a case for selective hedging with markets near...