Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>HSBC has rallied 19.8% from the April low and is up &gt; 13% year-to-date. Against this backdrop we analyze implied vol, implied jump and post-earning price patterns. </li>
<li>Q1 is typically HSBC’s least volatile earnings quarter, with most moves falling short of current jump expectations.</li>
<li>We suggest a short-vega hedge structure that benefits from elevated implied vol.</li>
</ul>


HSBC has rallied 19.8% from the April low and is up &gt; 13% year-to-date. Against this backdrop we analyze implied vol, implied jump and post-earning price patterns. 
Q1 is typically HSBC’s least volatile earnings quarter, with most moves falling short of current jump expectations.
We suggest a short-vega hedge structure that benefits from elevated implied vol.


HSBC (5.HK) Q1 Earnings: Big Move, Rich Vol, Hedge Opportunity Emerges

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On average, companies under our coverage are forecast to see a 47.3% YoY growth in net profit in 1Q25. Their results should be a pointer for the outlook in 2025. </li>
<li>Good results are expected at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cosco-holdings-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:286:1" rel="noopener">COSCO Shipping Hldgs (1919 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (753 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">CNBM (3323 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2875:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinhua-winshare-publishing-media-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15072:1" rel="noopener">Xinhua Winshare (811 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transp. (1138 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> will see weaker 1Q25.</li>
</ul>


On average, companies under our coverage are forecast to see a 47.3% YoY growth in net profit in 1Q25. Their results should be a pointer for the outlook in 2025. 
Good results are expected at Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK), Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK), COSCO Shipping Hldgs (1919 HK), Air China Ltd (753 HK), and CNBM (3323 HK). 

Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK), Xinhua Winshare (811 HK), Cosco Shipping Energy Transp. (1138 HK), and China Longyuan Power (916 HK) will see weaker 1Q25.


China & HK Strategy: 1Q25 Preview - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

<ul>
<li>An in-depth look at price patterns, implied vol, and the earnings implied jump compared to historical outcomes.</li>
<li>Based on ICBC’s historical post-earnings behavior and current implied vol levels, we recommend a hedge into the event.</li>
<li>We explore post-earnings moves that show a potentially exploitable pattern.</li>
</ul>


An in-depth look at price patterns, implied vol, and the earnings implied jump compared to historical outcomes.
Based on ICBC’s historical post-earnings behavior and current implied vol levels, we recommend a hedge into the event.
We explore post-earnings moves that show a potentially exploitable pattern.


ICBC (1398.HK) Earnings: Volatility Pricing, Post-Release Trade Setup & Tactical Hedge

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi's (1810 HK)</a> one-month implied volatility has decreased from recent peaks but remains above the 90th percentile, while realized volatility is exceptionally high, exceeding 100% (100th percentile).</li>
<li>The options market exhibits an inverted term structure (backwardation) favoring calendar or diagonal spreads, with a slightly negatively sloped skew supporting put and call spreads.</li>
<li>Open interest extends to March 2026, with balanced call and put interest across most expiries, except for March 2026, which is heavily call-dominated.</li>
</ul>



Xiaomi's (1810 HK) one-month implied volatility has decreased from recent peaks but remains above the 90th percentile, while realized volatility is exceptionally high, exceeding 100% (100th percentile).
The options market exhibits an inverted term structure (backwardation) favoring calendar or diagonal spreads, with a slightly negatively sloped skew supporting put and call spreads.
Open interest extends to March 2026, with balanced call and put interest across most expiries, except for March 2026, which is heavily call-dominated.


Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Volatility Insights and Analysis Identify Spread Opportunities

<ul>
<li>Over the past five trading days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Xiaomi</strong> Corp (1810 HK)</a> multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.</li>
<li>Bearish and Bullish strategies balance each other, with only 12% of trades expressing a neutral view, such as Iron Condors. Some strategies were traded in unusually large size.</li>
<li>Diagonal Spreads account for over 25% of all strategies and can make for near self-financing strategies. An inverted volatility term structure, aka backwardation, supports calendar and diagonal spreads.</li>
</ul>


Over the past five trading days, Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Bearish and Bullish strategies balance each other, with only 12% of trades expressing a neutral view, such as Iron Condors. Some strategies were traded in unusually large size.
Diagonal Spreads account for over 25% of all strategies and can make for near self-financing strategies. An inverted volatility term structure, aka backwardation, supports calendar and diagonal spreads.


Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

HSBC (5.HK) Q1 Earnings: Big Move, Rich Vol, Hedge Opportunity Emerges

HSBC's stock has surged this year, we present analysis focusing on implied volatility and implied jump expectations, A short-vega hedge structure...

John Ley

China & HK Strategy: 1Q25 Preview - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Earnings for the companies under our coverage are expected to grow by 47.3% in 1Q25, with Shanghai Electric Group, Anhui Conch, COSCO Shipping...

Osbert Tang, CFA

ICBC (1398.HK) Earnings: Volatility Pricing, Post-Release Trade Setup & Tactical Hedge

Analysis of price patterns, implied volatility, and earnings implied jump suggest hedging into ICBC's upcoming earnings event based on historical...

John Ley

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Volatility Insights and Analysis Identify Spread Opportunities

Xiaomi's implied and realized volatility remains high with the options market showing opportunities for calendar spreads and diagonal spreads.

Gaudenz Schneider

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

Xiaomi Corp's multi-leg option strategies show diverse approaches with a mix of bullish and bearish trades, including large trades and self...

Gaudenz Schneider

HSBC (5.HK) Q1 Earnings: Big Move, Rich Vol, Hedge Opportunity Emerges

​HSBC's stock has surged this year, we present analysis focusing on implied volatility and implied jump expectations, A short-vega hedge structure...

John Ley

China & HK Strategy: 1Q25 Preview - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Earnings for the companies under our coverage are expected to grow by 47.3% in 1Q25, with Shanghai Electric Group, Anhui Conch, COSCO Shipping...

Osbert Tang, CFA

ICBC (1398.HK) Earnings: Volatility Pricing, Post-Release Trade Setup & Tactical Hedge

​Analysis of price patterns, implied volatility, and earnings implied jump suggest hedging into ICBC's upcoming earnings event based on historical...

John Ley

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Volatility Insights and Analysis Identify Spread Opportunities

​Xiaomi's implied and realized volatility remains high with the options market showing opportunities for calendar spreads and diagonal spreads.

Gaudenz Schneider

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

​Xiaomi Corp's multi-leg option strategies show diverse approaches with a mix of bullish and bearish trades, including large trades and self...

Gaudenz Schneider

HSBC's stock has surged this year, we present analysis focusing on implied volatility and implied jump expectations, A short-vega hedge structure...

Analysis of price patterns, implied volatility, and earnings implied jump suggest hedging into ICBC's upcoming earnings event based on historical...

Xiaomi's implied and realized volatility remains high with the options market showing opportunities for calendar spreads and diagonal spreads.

Xiaomi Corp's multi-leg option strategies show diverse approaches with a mix of bullish and bearish trades, including large trades and self...