Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> has reached new highs (25538). Our quantitative model says the index has reached a 75% probability of reversal.
</li>
<li>Let's break down the model's info: PRICE MODEL 75%, TIME MODEL 75%, combined prob. of reversal is 75%. The fact that both model's factors are overbought is "bearish".</li>
<li>
Can the index climb higher? Our detailed analysis is in the insight below, together with screenshots from the model.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) has reached new highs (25538). Our quantitative model says the index has reached a 75% probability of reversal.

Let's break down the model's info: PRICE MODEL 75%, TIME MODEL 75%, combined prob. of reversal is 75%. The fact that both model's factors are overbought is "bearish".

Can the index climb higher? Our detailed analysis is in the insight below, together with screenshots from the model.


HSI Index Tactical View: How Much Further Can the Rally Run?

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>HSI continued its rally, breaking out to the highest level since early 2022.</li>
<li>Breadth was solid and all sectors finished the week higher, led by standout moves in Health Care.</li>
<li>Call volumes were underwhelming given the breakout to new highs.</li>
</ul>


HSI continued its rally, breaking out to the highest level since early 2022.
Breadth was solid and all sectors finished the week higher, led by standout moves in Health Care.
Call volumes were underwhelming given the breakout to new highs.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (July 14 – 18): HSI at Fresh Highs But Option Volumes Lag

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 14 - July 19.</li>
<li>The most noticeable highlights are: all US markets and stocks we cover sold off last week, apart from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com (AMZN US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> </li>
<li>In Asia, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> is very oversold, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> is also oversold. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)</a> start to be overbought.</li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 14 - July 19.
The most noticeable highlights are: all US markets and stocks we cover sold off last week, apart from Amazon.com (AMZN US) , Alphabet (GOOG US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) 
In Asia, BYD (1211 HK) is very oversold, and Fast Retailing (9983 JP) is also oversold. Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) start to be overbought.


Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 14 – July 19

<ul>
<li>Sentiment improved modestly, though breadth remains well below recent highs in a subdued price action.</li>
<li>Option activity climbed steadily, with strong Friday Call demand pushing the Put/Call ratio to lower bound.</li>
<li>Financials stood out across price action, volatility, and options activity.</li>
</ul>


Sentiment improved modestly, though breadth remains well below recent highs in a subdued price action.
Option activity climbed steadily, with strong Friday Call demand pushing the Put/Call ratio to lower bound.
Financials stood out across price action, volatility, and options activity.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (July 07–11): Financials in Focus as Call Volumes Rise

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 7 - July 11.</li>
<li>Since our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-markets-tactical-outlook-week-of-june-30-july-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook published last week</a>, US markets became even more overbought by the end of the week, while some Asian  stocks started to pull back. </li>
<li>Stocks are falling on Monday, the Trump administration is threatening imposing 25% tariffs on a number of nations (including Japan and South Korea), global markets may close the week down.
</li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 7 - July 11.
Since our Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook published last week, US markets became even more overbought by the end of the week, while some Asian  stocks started to pull back. 
Stocks are falling on Monday, the Trump administration is threatening imposing 25% tariffs on a number of nations (including Japan and South Korea), global markets may close the week down.



Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

HSI Index Tactical View: How Much Further Can the Rally Run?

HSI hit a new high at 25,538, but our model signals a 75% chance of reversal due to overbought conditions. A move to 26,000 is possible but looks...

Nico Rosti

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (July 14 – 18): HSI at Fresh Highs But Option Volumes Lag

HSI extends its breakout with strong single stock and sector breadth but option volumes—particularly Calls—showed signs of hesitation.

John Ley

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 14 – July 19

Our Weekly Tactical Outlook: US sold-off last week, except for Amazon, Alphabet, and NVIDIA (overbought). BYD and Fast Retailing are oversold in...

Nico Rosti

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (July 07–11): Financials in Focus as Call Volumes Rise

Sentiment improved slightly, but breadth remains low in subdued price action. Financials were a standout in price, volatility, and options activity.

John Ley

Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

Nico Rosti

HSI Index Tactical View: How Much Further Can the Rally Run?

HSI hit a new high at 25,538, but our model signals a 75% chance of reversal due to overbought conditions. A move to 26,000 is possible but looks...

Nico Rosti

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (July 14 – 18): HSI at Fresh Highs But Option Volumes Lag

HSI extends its breakout with strong single stock and sector breadth but option volumes—particularly Calls—showed signs of hesitation.

John Ley

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 14 – July 19

Our Weekly Tactical Outlook: US sold-off last week, except for Amazon, Alphabet, and NVIDIA (overbought). BYD and Fast Retailing are oversold in...

Nico Rosti

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (July 07–11): Financials in Focus as Call Volumes Rise

​Sentiment improved slightly, but breadth remains low in subdued price action. Financials were a standout in price, volatility, and options activity.

John Ley

Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

​Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

Nico Rosti

Sentiment improved slightly, but breadth remains low in subdued price action. Financials were a standout in price, volatility, and options activity.

Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...