Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Mixed bag with narrowing participation, widening distribution of returns but with the highest total option volume since November.</li>
<li>Option volumes over the past 2 weeks are 80% higher than the prior 3-month average.</li>
<li>Implied vols weaker across the board with 9 of 11 sectors seeing softer implieds.</li>
</ul>


Mixed bag with narrowing participation, widening distribution of returns but with the highest total option volume since November.
Option volumes over the past 2 weeks are 80% higher than the prior 3-month average.
Implied vols weaker across the board with 9 of 11 sectors seeing softer implieds.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (February 17 – 21): Option Volumes Surge as Rally Narrows

<ul>
<li>The scorching rally continues with Alibaba saving a lackluster week with huge earnings driven move on Friday.  </li>
<li>Implied vols are in the 85th percentile and struggling to move higher with spot.</li>
<li>Third week in a row where Call volume as a percent of total slipped indicating that buying fatigue might be setting in.</li>
</ul>


The scorching rally continues with Alibaba saving a lackluster week with huge earnings driven move on Friday.  
Implied vols are in the 85th percentile and struggling to move higher with spot.
Third week in a row where Call volume as a percent of total slipped indicating that buying fatigue might be setting in.


HSI Index Options Weekly (Feb 17-21): Alibaba Reignites Momentum

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We continue to be led down the garden path - no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> in March means we remain at 83 members.</li>
<li>Despite having an opportunity to add stocks to the index without increasing turnover, the index committee have done nothing. Which begs the question - what exactly are they waiting for?</li>
<li>Float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.8% and the resulting round-trip trade is HK$16.7bn (US$2.15bn).</li>
</ul>


We continue to be led down the garden path - no constituent changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) in March means we remain at 83 members.
Despite having an opportunity to add stocks to the index without increasing turnover, the index committee have done nothing. Which begs the question - what exactly are they waiting for?
Float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.8% and the resulting round-trip trade is HK$16.7bn (US$2.15bn).


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Does Anyone Know What the Index Committee Is Thinking?

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> has been falling in June and July, but our MONTHLY seasonal pattern model indicates the index has a very good chance to close August up.</li>
<li>The condition we need, to forecast that August will be closing up, is to have July closing down, i.e. &lt;17718.61.</li>
<li>The index is WEEKLY OVERSOLD, so the timing to buy will be critical, because you want to get in early, but not too early (and July must close down).</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index has been falling in June and July, but our MONTHLY seasonal pattern model indicates the index has a very good chance to close August up.
The condition we need, to forecast that August will be closing up, is to have July closing down, i.e. &lt;17718.61.
The index is WEEKLY OVERSOLD, so the timing to buy will be critical, because you want to get in early, but not too early (and July must close down).


EQD | The HSI Is Ripe For A Rally In August (IF July's Close Is Negative)

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Complete rally mode across single stocks and sectors with the 3 highest single stock option volumes of the past 3 months recorded.</li>
<li>More than 25% of issues experience more than 100% increase in options volume. </li>
<li>We highlight names with the largest increases in both Put and Call volumes including Alibaba, Alibaba Health, AIA, China telecom and Kingdee.</li>
</ul>


Complete rally mode across single stocks and sectors with the 3 highest single stock option volumes of the past 3 months recorded.
More than 25% of issues experience more than 100% increase in options volume. 
We highlight names with the largest increases in both Put and Call volumes including Alibaba, Alibaba Health, AIA, China telecom and Kingdee.


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Feb 10 – 14):  Strong Option Volumes Fuel Rally

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (February 17 – 21): Option Volumes Surge as Rally Narrows

Option volumes have surged in recent weeks, with narrowing participation and softer implied volatility in most sectors.

John Ley

HSI Index Options Weekly (Feb 17-21): Alibaba Reignites Momentum

Alibaba's strong earnings give the maket a jolt as implied vols struggle to rise and Call buying declines, suggesting buying fatigue may be...

John Ley

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Does Anyone Know What the Index Committee Is Thinking?

Another opportunity missed to increase the number of index constituents and decrease the Healthcare underweight with minimal change to index...

Brian Freitas

EQD | The HSI Is Ripe For A Rally In August (IF July's Close Is Negative)

The Hang Seng Index has been falling in June and July, but seasonal pattern model predicts August will close up if July closes down. The index is...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Feb 10 – 14): Strong Option Volumes Fuel Rally

Powerful rally across stocks with exceptionally high option volumes indicating that the price action mya be getting frothy.

John Ley

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (February 17 – 21): Option Volumes Surge as Rally Narrows

​Option volumes have surged in recent weeks, with narrowing participation and softer implied volatility in most sectors.

John Ley

HSI Index Options Weekly (Feb 17-21): Alibaba Reignites Momentum

​Alibaba's strong earnings give the maket a jolt as implied vols struggle to rise and Call buying declines, suggesting buying fatigue may be...

John Ley

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Does Anyone Know What the Index Committee Is Thinking?

Another opportunity missed to increase the number of index constituents and decrease the Healthcare underweight with minimal change to index...

Brian Freitas

EQD | The HSI Is Ripe For A Rally In August (IF July's Close Is Negative)

​The Hang Seng Index has been falling in June and July, but seasonal pattern model predicts August will close up if July closes down. The index is...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Feb 10 – 14): Strong Option Volumes Fuel Rally

Powerful rally across stocks with exceptionally high option volumes indicating that the price action mya be getting frothy.

John Ley

Option volumes have surged in recent weeks, with narrowing participation and softer implied volatility in most sectors.

Alibaba's strong earnings give the maket a jolt as implied vols struggle to rise and Call buying declines, suggesting buying fatigue may be...

The Hang Seng Index has been falling in June and July, but seasonal pattern model predicts August will close up if July closes down. The index is...