Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>In our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hang-seng-index-faf-calculation-change-buy-the-dip" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight</a> we highlighted a buy-the-dip opportunity in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a> in the HSI Index during the late-March pullback. However, Trump’s tariff announcement dramatically shifted the outlook.</li>
<li>Following a sharp drop to 19260, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> staged a fierce rally to 21000—but momentum has since stalled.</li>
<li>The index has rallied for three straight weeks (including this one), but remains below key resistance levels. Our model signals weakness, and a likely pullback ahead.
</li>
</ul>


In our previous insight we highlighted a buy-the-dip opportunity in the HSI INDEX in the HSI Index during the late-March pullback. However, Trump’s tariff announcement dramatically shifted the outlook.
Following a sharp drop to 19260, the Hang Seng Index staged a fierce rally to 21000—but momentum has since stalled.
The index has rallied for three straight weeks (including this one), but remains below key resistance levels. Our model signals weakness, and a likely pullback ahead.



HSI Tactical Outlook: Fading Momentum Signals Pullback Risk

<ul>
<li>A noticeable shift in tone this week, with participation broadening and price action turning constructive.</li>
<li>Implied vols declined across most names, unwinding last week’s spike but still sitting above historical medians.</li>
<li>Call activity bounced back, and the Put/Call ratio suggestive of less defensiveactivity.</li>
</ul>


A noticeable shift in tone this week, with participation broadening and price action turning constructive.
Implied vols declined across most names, unwinding last week’s spike but still sitting above historical medians.
Call activity bounced back, and the Put/Call ratio suggestive of less defensiveactivity.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (April 14 – 17): Broader Participation, Softer Vols

<ul>
<li>A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, including option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.</li>
<li>The recent cooling in volatility may be more of a pause than a reversal—we explore why that might be.</li>
<li>Trading activity continued to fade as the market works through the volatility of recent weeks.</li>
</ul>


A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, including option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
The recent cooling in volatility may be more of a pause than a reversal—we explore why that might be.
Trading activity continued to fade as the market works through the volatility of recent weeks.


HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Volatility Cools, But the Floor May Hold

<ul>
<li>A challenging week for HK single stocks, with weak breadth and sharp losses punctuated by a gap lower to start the week.</li>
<li>Monday marked the highest options volume day of the year, with a spike in the Put/Call ratio and unusual ETF option activity.</li>
<li>Implied vols surged, with the average implied vol percentile at very elevated levels.</li>
</ul>


A challenging week for HK single stocks, with weak breadth and sharp losses punctuated by a gap lower to start the week.
Monday marked the highest options volume day of the year, with a spike in the Put/Call ratio and unusual ETF option activity.
Implied vols surged, with the average implied vol percentile at very elevated levels.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Spikes, Breadth Cracks & ETF Activity Surges

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

HSI Tactical Outlook: Fading Momentum Signals Pullback Risk

After crashing following Trump's tariff announcement in early April, the HSI index rallied back very strongly, but momentum stalled. Our model...

Nico Rosti

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (April 14 – 17): Broader Participation, Softer Vols

This week saw a positive shift in market sentiment, with increased participation and improved price action. Implied vols decreased but remain...

John Ley

HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Volatility Cools, But the Floor May Hold

A weekly overview of market volatility and trading activity, suggesting that the recent decrease in volatility may be a pause as opposed to an...

John Ley

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Spikes, Breadth Cracks & ETF Activity Surges

HK single stocks faced a tough week with sharp losses, high options volume, surging implied vols and very poor breadth.

John Ley

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

​Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

HSI Tactical Outlook: Fading Momentum Signals Pullback Risk

After crashing following Trump's tariff announcement in early April, the HSI index rallied back very strongly, but momentum stalled. Our model...

Nico Rosti

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (April 14 – 17): Broader Participation, Softer Vols

​This week saw a positive shift in market sentiment, with increased participation and improved price action. Implied vols decreased but remain...

John Ley

HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Volatility Cools, But the Floor May Hold

​A weekly overview of market volatility and trading activity, suggesting that the recent decrease in volatility may be a pause as opposed to an...

John Ley

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Spikes, Breadth Cracks & ETF Activity Surges

​HK single stocks faced a tough week with sharp losses, high options volume, surging implied vols and very poor breadth.

John Ley

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

This week saw a positive shift in market sentiment, with increased participation and improved price action. Implied vols decreased but remain...

A weekly overview of market volatility and trading activity, suggesting that the recent decrease in volatility may be a pause as opposed to an...

HK single stocks faced a tough week with sharp losses, high options volume, surging implied vols and very poor breadth.