Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>After a 33.9% rally off the April lows HSI is starting to flash caution across a variety of metrics.</li>
<li>Weak breadth and option exuberance at the single stock level are additional areas of concern.</li>
<li>We outline the technical backdrop and recommend hedge strategies given the current level of implied vols.</li>
</ul>


After a 33.9% rally off the April lows HSI is starting to flash caution across a variety of metrics.
Weak breadth and option exuberance at the single stock level are additional areas of concern.
We outline the technical backdrop and recommend hedge strategies given the current level of implied vols.


HSI: Extended Run Faces Hurdles, Hedge Strategies Recommended

<ul>
<li>HSI tested new highs before fading, as weak breadth and strong option volumes highlighted diverging signals in Hong Kong equities.</li>
<li>Technically, HSI may have reached a level from which minor corrections have started.</li>
<li>Option trading activity surged, reaching its busiest day since November, even as overall market momentum faltered.</li>
</ul>


HSI tested new highs before fading, as weak breadth and strong option volumes highlighted diverging signals in Hong Kong equities.
Technically, HSI may have reached a level from which minor corrections have started.
Option trading activity surged, reaching its busiest day since November, even as overall market momentum faltered.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Sept 15 – 19): Caution Signs Emerge as HSI Stretches Higher

<ul>
<li>HSI broke out to fresh four-year highs, driven by Alibaba’s surge, with broad-based gains and rising single stock option activity.</li>
<li>Market breadth strengthened across both price action and single stock options flows.</li>
<li>Spot-Up/Vol-Up dynamics defined the week, as sectors with strong gains also posted the largest implied vol increases.</li>
</ul>


HSI broke out to fresh four-year highs, driven by Alibaba’s surge, with broad-based gains and rising single stock option activity.
Market breadth strengthened across both price action and single stock options flows.
Spot-Up/Vol-Up dynamics defined the week, as sectors with strong gains also posted the largest implied vol increases.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Sept 08 – 12): Alibaba Surge Helps Push HSI to Four-Year High

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> has been rallying +37% since its plunge to 19260 on April 7th. It is +6% higher than its previous high in mid-March.</li>
<li>The sentiment towards the index remains positive lately, and <strong>our model indicates the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>  is a bit overbought but could go higher.</strong>
</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a> starts to be toppish around 26874 (75% prob. of reversal). Covering past that point is not a bad idea, especially if the index is up 3-4 weeks.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) has been rallying +37% since its plunge to 19260 on April 7th. It is +6% higher than its previous high in mid-March.
The sentiment towards the index remains positive lately, and our model indicates the HSI  is a bit overbought but could go higher.

The HSI INDEX starts to be toppish around 26874 (75% prob. of reversal). Covering past that point is not a bad idea, especially if the index is up 3-4 weeks.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Profit Targets: Has The Rally Topped?

<ul>
<li>Market breadth remained weak as option activity slowed and speculation concerns lingered around speculative trading.</li>
<li>Option demand cooled, led by waning interest in Calls, while heavyweights in Consumer Discretionary kept overall volumes supported.</li>
<li>Trading momentum slowed, but sector heavyweights maintained dominance, with implied vols drifting lower across much of the market.</li>
</ul>


Market breadth remained weak as option activity slowed and speculation concerns lingered around speculative trading.
Option demand cooled, led by waning interest in Calls, while heavyweights in Consumer Discretionary kept overall volumes supported.
Trading momentum slowed, but sector heavyweights maintained dominance, with implied vols drifting lower across much of the market.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Sep 01–05): Option Activity Eases, Speculation In Focus

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

HSI: Extended Run Faces Hurdles, Hedge Strategies Recommended

With HSI extended, breadth deteriorating, and option volumes exuberant, the setup points to a timely window for implementing hedges.

John Ley

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Sept 15 – 19): Caution Signs Emerge as HSI Stretches Higher

HSI tested fresh highs before fading, with weakening breadth and a surge in single stock option activity pointing to diverging signals across Hong...

John Ley

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Sept 08 – 12): Alibaba Surge Helps Push HSI to Four-Year High

Alibaba’s rally fueled HSI’s breakout to four-year highs, with market breadth strengthening, option activity rising, and implied vols climbing...

John Ley

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Profit Targets: Has The Rally Topped?

The HSI has surged +37% since its early April lows. Sentiment is positive, but our model says "overbought". Additional, limited gains are possible...

Nico Rosti

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Sep 01–05): Option Activity Eases, Speculation In Focus

Hong Kong option volumes eased with weak breadth and cooling Call demand against a backdrop of weak seasonals and growing concerns around...

John Ley

HSI: Extended Run Faces Hurdles, Hedge Strategies Recommended

With HSI extended, breadth deteriorating, and option volumes exuberant, the setup points to a timely window for implementing hedges.

John Ley

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Sept 15 – 19): Caution Signs Emerge as HSI Stretches Higher

HSI tested fresh highs before fading, with weakening breadth and a surge in single stock option activity pointing to diverging signals across Hong...

John Ley

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Sept 08 – 12): Alibaba Surge Helps Push HSI to Four-Year High

Alibaba’s rally fueled HSI’s breakout to four-year highs, with market breadth strengthening, option activity rising, and implied vols climbing...

John Ley

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Profit Targets: Has The Rally Topped?

​The HSI has surged +37% since its early April lows. Sentiment is positive, but our model says "overbought". Additional, limited gains are possible...

Nico Rosti

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Sep 01–05): Option Activity Eases, Speculation In Focus

Hong Kong option volumes eased with weak breadth and cooling Call demand against a backdrop of weak seasonals and growing concerns around...

John Ley

The HSI has surged +37% since its early April lows. Sentiment is positive, but our model says "overbought". Additional, limited gains are possible...