Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya Corp (7741 JP)</a> reported 3QFY03/21 results on Thursday (28<sup>th</sup> January) which saw revenues growing at a marginal 0.3% YoY while operating profits increased at a stellar 20.4% YoY during the quarter. The reported revenues and OP beat consensus estimates by 1.3% and 9.8% respectively.</p><p>With the pandemic outbreak, Hoya’s revenues and operating profit declined YoY for three consecutive quarters, and YoY improvement in December quarter shows that the earnings are recovering. We discuss the details below.</p>

Hoya Corp (7741 JP) reported 3QFY03/21 results on Thursday (28th January) which saw revenues growing at a marginal 0.3% YoY while operating profits increased at a stellar 20.4% YoY during the quarter. The reported revenues and OP beat consensus estimates by 1.3% and 9.8% respectively.With the pandemic outbreak, Hoya’s revenues and operating profit declined YoY for three consecutive quarters, and YoY improvement in December quarter shows that the earnings are recovering. We discuss the details below.

Hoya 3Q Results: Earnings Beat Consensus and Point to Recovery Ahead

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya Corp (7741 JP)</a>  reported its 2QFY03/2021 results on Tuesday (27<sup>th</sup> October) which saw both revenues and operating profits declining YoY by 9% and 4% respectively. The reported revenue was 1% higher than consensus estimates while OP beat consensus estimates by a large margin of 15.4%.</p><p>The reported revenue was 3.4% higher than the company’s own guidance which called for revenues of JPY135.7bn for 2QFY03/2021. The company’s earnings were impacted for a third quarter due to the Covid-19 outbreak, 2QFY03/2021 results show that the severity of the virus outbreak has declined.</p><p>Hoya also announced a JPY4bn share buyback which will run from 28<sup>th</sup> October to 20<sup>th</sup> January 2021.</p>

Hoya Corp (7741 JP)  reported its 2QFY03/2021 results on Tuesday (27th October) which saw both revenues and operating profits declining YoY by 9% and 4% respectively. The reported revenue was 1% higher than consensus estimates while OP beat consensus estimates by a large margin of 15.4%.The reported revenue was 3.4% higher than the company’s own guidance which called for revenues of JPY135.7bn for 2QFY03/2021. The company’s earnings were impacted for a third quarter due to the Covid-19 outbreak, 2QFY03/2021 results show that the severity of the virus outbreak has declined.Hoya also announced a JPY4bn share buyback which will run from 28th October to 20th January 2021.

Hoya 2Q Results: Earnings Decline Ameliorates and There Is a Small Buyback

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><p>Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimano-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3777:1" rel="noopener">Shimano (7309 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu (6702 JP)</a>.</p><div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/167/904/original/2020-10-28_05-35-42.png?1603830956" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="167904"></figure></div><div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/167/905/original/2020-10-28_05-36-25.png?1603831001" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="167905"></figure></div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>57 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 49% Positive / 9% Neutral / 42% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change</strong>: -1.7 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -6.4% Quarter YoY / -5.9% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.4ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 12%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>39 Annual • 36 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 36% Positive / 8% Neutral / 56% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 53% Positive / 6% Neutral / 42% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -1.1 points</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Shimano (7309 JP) and Fujitsu (6702 JP).Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS57 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 49% Positive / 9% Neutral / 42% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -1.7 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -6.4% Quarter YoY / -5.9% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.4ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 12%
39 Annual • 36 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 36% Positive / 8% Neutral / 56% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 53% Positive / 6% Neutral / 42% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -1.1 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​27 Online Brokers, Hoya, Shin-Etsu, Fujitsu..

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a>  provides various medical-related services to physicians and healthcare professionals in Japan and overseas. The company operates m3.com, its key platform alongside several other websites and platforms aimed at providing different services such as information provision, marketing services, medical health records and career solutions for physicians and medical practitioners.</p><p>The company share price has more than doubled to JPY6,380 per share (from JPY2,921 on 26<sup>th</sup> March 2020) since we last wrote on the company. In this insight, we examine the key catalysts behind the company’s share price rally and the valuation.</p>

M3 Inc (2413 JP)  provides various medical-related services to physicians and healthcare professionals in Japan and overseas. The company operates m3.com, its key platform alongside several other websites and platforms aimed at providing different services such as information provision, marketing services, medical health records and career solutions for physicians and medical practitioners.The company share price has more than doubled to JPY6,380 per share (from JPY2,921 on 26th March 2020) since we last wrote on the company. In this insight, we examine the key catalysts behind the company’s share price rally and the valuation.

M3 Inc: Intelligent Adaption to Covid-19 Should Sustain Medtech Earnings Growth Even Post-Pandemic

Event-Driven

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/033/original/2020-09-15_10-23-17.png?1600133037" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159033"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE BUFFETT TRADE</strong> - Much has already written on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8635:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire Hathaway</a>'s purchase of stakes in Japan's sogo shosha, including on this <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-quick-look-at-the-buffet-trade-and-the-most-obvious-follow-ons" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43125" rel="noopener">platform</a>. The Japanese trading houses have a long and proud tradition and continue to attract the best talent from at home and abroad. In many respects, they have similarities with BH given their long-term approach to investing and focus on free cash flow generation. The differences are as striking, particularly the exposure to commodities and Asia, and the implications for both BH and Japan are profound.</p><p>In this<strong> DETAIL</strong> section, we examine: -</p><ul>
<li>the macro 'logic' driving these investments,</li>
<li>a more appropriate analytical and valuation methodology for these companies</li>
<li>the historically most-correlated peer groups and companies from both a technical and fundamental perspective if this trade were to be applied more broadly to the Japanese market. </li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>We can summarise our approach to understanding the rationale behind the Buffett trade in the chart below. The sogo shosha are, in aggregate, significant generators of Residual Comprehensive Income, particularly relative to their current market valuations. Priced at a historically low 0.93x book, Japan's trading houses are one of the world's better deep value trades.</strong></p></div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/053/original/2020-09-15_13-42-01.png?1600144936" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159053"></figure>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsTHE BUFFETT TRADE - Much has already written on Berkshire Hathaway's purchase of stakes in Japan's sogo shosha, including on this platform. The Japanese trading houses have a long and proud tradition and continue to attract the best talent from at home and abroad. In many respects, they have similarities with BH given their long-term approach to investing and focus on free cash flow generation. The differences are as striking, particularly the exposure to commodities and Asia, and the implications for both BH and Japan are profound.In this DETAIL section, we examine: -
the macro 'logic' driving these investments,
a more appropriate analytical and valuation methodology for these companies
the historically most-correlated peer groups and companies from both a technical and fundamental perspective if this trade were to be applied more broadly to the Japanese market. 
We can summarise our approach to understanding the rationale behind the Buffett trade in the chart below. The sogo shosha are, in aggregate, significant generators of Residual Comprehensive Income, particularly relative to their current market valuations. Priced at a historically low 0.93x book, Japan's trading houses are one of the world's better deep value trades.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Analysing The "Buffett Trade", Valuing the Sogo Shosha & The Return of Asian Inflation

Japan

Hoya Corp manufactures electro-optics products such as mask blanks for semiconductors, photomasks for LCD panels, optical glasses, glass memory disks for HDDs, medical flexible endoscopes, eyeglasses, and contact lenses. The Company also provides information system architecture.

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Hoya Corp (7741 JP)

Hoya 3Q Results: Earnings Beat Consensus and Point to Recovery Ahead

Hoya reported 3QFY03/21 results on Thursday (28th January) which saw revenues growing at a marginal 0.3% YoY while operating profits increased at a...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Hoya 2Q Results: Earnings Decline Ameliorates and There Is a Small Buyback

Hoya reported its 3QFY03/2021 results on Tuesday (27th Oct) which saw both revenues and operating profits declining YoY by 9% and 4% respectively....

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/27 Online Brokers, Hoya, Shin-Etsu, Fujitsu..

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Shimano (7309 JP) and Fujitsu (6702 JP).____________

Campbell Gunn

M3 Inc: Intelligent Adaption to Covid-19 Should Sustain Medtech Earnings Growth Even Post-Pandemic

M3 Inc (2413 JP) provides various medical-related services to physicians and healthcare professionals in Japan and overseas. The company operates...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Analysing The "Buffett Trade", Valuing the Sogo Shosha & The Return of Asian Inflation

THE BUFFETT TRADE - Much has written on $ber

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hoya 3Q Results: Earnings Beat Consensus and Point to Recovery Ahead

Hoya reported 3QFY03/21 results on Thursday (28th January) which saw revenues growing at a marginal 0.3% YoY while operating profits increased at a...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Hoya 2Q Results: Earnings Decline Ameliorates and There Is a Small Buyback

Hoya reported its 3QFY03/2021 results on Tuesday (27th Oct) which saw both revenues and operating profits declining YoY by 9% and 4% respectively....

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​27 Online Brokers, Hoya, Shin-Etsu, Fujitsu..

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Shimano (7309 JP) and Fujitsu (6702 JP).____________

Campbell Gunn

M3 Inc: Intelligent Adaption to Covid-19 Should Sustain Medtech Earnings Growth Even Post-Pandemic

M3 Inc (2413 JP) provides various medical-related services to physicians and healthcare professionals in Japan and overseas. The company operates...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Analysing The "Buffett Trade", Valuing the Sogo Shosha & The Return of Asian Inflation

THE BUFFETT TRADE - Much has written on $ber

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/27 Online Brokers, Hoya, Shin-Etsu, Fujitsu..