Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Regional bank consolidation is on the menu in Japan. Expect more of it.</li>
<li>Intra-Prefecture is the obvious case. In rural prefectures, JA and the Post Bank are credible deposit-taker competition. SME lending is less obvious, though cross-border (neighbouring prefecture) combinations could arise.</li>
<li>A new transaction suggests another combination is on its way. I'd buy.</li>
</ul>


Regional bank consolidation is on the menu in Japan. Expect more of it.
Intra-Prefecture is the obvious case. In rural prefectures, JA and the Post Bank are credible deposit-taker competition. SME lending is less obvious, though cross-border (neighbouring prefecture) combinations could arise.
A new transaction suggests another combination is on its way. I'd buy.


[Japan M&A] Regional Bank Consolidation Efforts May Pick Up

<ul>
<li>Under the requirements of the Amended Mongolian Banking Law (Feb 2021), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/khan-bank-llc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36883:1" rel="noopener">Khan Bank (KHAN MO)</a> needed to IPO. It did, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hs-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7311:1" rel="noopener">HS Holdings (8699 JP)</a>'s stake fell to 49.77%. </li>
<li>It was de-consolidated. They were locked up for 6mos. The look-through financials are easier now. The company has bought back stock and trades at &lt;0.5x book.</li>
<li>But the Mongolian Banking Law required one more thing. All D-SIBs had to get all shareholders below 20% by 31 December 2023. It's not clear that happened. </li>
</ul>


Under the requirements of the Amended Mongolian Banking Law (Feb 2021), Khan Bank (KHAN MO) needed to IPO. It did, and HS Holdings (8699 JP)'s stake fell to 49.77%. 
It was de-consolidated. They were locked up for 6mos. The look-through financials are easier now. The company has bought back stock and trades at &lt;0.5x book.
But the Mongolian Banking Law required one more thing. All D-SIBs had to get all shareholders below 20% by 31 December 2023. It's not clear that happened. 


HS Holdings (8699) - New Year, New Issues So Lots of Value But Buyer Beware!

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, DZT Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of May 22nd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD28,591m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Fujikura, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, SoftBank, Tokyo Kiraboshi Financial, Advantest, Fast Retailing, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of May 22nd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD28,591m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Fujikura, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, SoftBank, Tokyo Kiraboshi Financial, Advantest, Fast Retailing, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (May 22nd): Kioxia, Fujikura, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, SoftBank

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of May 15th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD27,467m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Lasertec, Disco, JX Advanced Metals, IHI, Furukawa Electric, Nintendo, Sumitomo Electric Industries, Mitsubishi.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of May 15th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD27,467m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Lasertec, Disco, JX Advanced Metals, IHI, Furukawa Electric, Nintendo, Sumitomo Electric Industries, Mitsubishi.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (May 15th): Kioxia, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Lasertec, Disco

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Apr 24th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD24,585m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, SoftBank, Lasertec, Nintendo, Disco, Sumitomo Pharma, Fast Retailing, Furukawa Electric, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toyota Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Apr 24th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD24,585m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, SoftBank, Lasertec, Nintendo, Disco, Sumitomo Pharma, Fast Retailing, Furukawa Electric, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toyota Motor.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Apr 24th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Lasertec, Nintendo, Disco, Sumitomo Pharma

Japan

HS Holdings Co., Ltd. offers banking services. The Company provides deposits, loans, domestic settlement, fund management, and other services. HS Holdings also offers securities dealing, securities brokerage, securities underwriting, and other services.

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HS Holdings (8699 JP)

[Japan M&A] Regional Bank Consolidation Efforts May Pick Up

Japan regional bank consolidation will continue. We may have a new candidate. I'd be long the small target in this case, assuming that value will out.

Travis Lundy

HS Holdings (8699) - New Year, New Issues So Lots of Value But Buyer Beware!

HS Holdings trades below 0.5x book where its major asset, comprising 60+% of book, trades with high growth, and at 4x PER. But it has to sell that...

Travis Lundy

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (May 22nd): Kioxia, Fujikura, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, SoftBank

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Fujikura (5803 JP), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (May 15th): Kioxia, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Lasertec, Disco

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP), Lasertec...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Apr 24th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Lasertec, Nintendo, Disco, Sumitomo Pharma

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Lasertec (6920 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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