Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. </li>
<li>Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.</li>
<li>November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. </li>
</ul>


Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. 
Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.
November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. 


EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A shares were down on the week, not maintaining the month-end bounce after the long weekend. H-shares were mixed. HSCEI was slightly up. </li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK23bn. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive post-CNY daily net buy streak on 25 March, then started a new one. No net sell days since.</li>
<li>This week saw a LOT of news. State Council Nine Points. CSRC draft regs and legislative work plan. Ratings agency action. Lots of movement. None of it hugely positive.</li>
</ul>


A shares were down on the week, not maintaining the month-end bounce after the long weekend. H-shares were mixed. HSCEI was slightly up. 
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK23bn. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive post-CNY daily net buy streak on 25 March, then started a new one. No net sell days since.
This week saw a LOT of news. State Council Nine Points. CSRC draft regs and legislative work plan. Ratings agency action. Lots of movement. None of it hugely positive.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying. New State Council and CSRC Plans

Financial sector veteran, KT Capital Group

Fern Wang

Financial sector veteran

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>StandChart may need to take further impairment hit on China Bohai Bank</li>
<li>VIU model is used to justify the higher carrying value compared to fair value of the holdings.  There is zero headroom between the VIU model and the carrying amount.</li>
<li>We looked at VIU model assumptions for HSBC and StandChart. A declining NIM is likely put further pressure on the VIU model output for StandChart.  </li>
</ul>


StandChart may need to take further impairment hit on China Bohai Bank
VIU model is used to justify the higher carrying value compared to fair value of the holdings.  There is zero headroom between the VIU model and the carrying amount.
We looked at VIU model assumptions for HSBC and StandChart. A declining NIM is likely put further pressure on the VIU model output for StandChart.  


StandChart Is Likely to Have More China Bohai Impairment

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>In the most recent quarters HSBC saw its NIM decline from around 1.7% to 1.5%</li>
<li>As the bank de-risks its CRE lending it is left with a greater proportion of bad CRE loans</li>
<li>There can be more significant impairment charges on BoCom, the USD3bn done was small</li>
</ul>


In the most recent quarters HSBC saw its NIM decline from around 1.7% to 1.5%
As the bank de-risks its CRE lending it is left with a greater proportion of bad CRE loans
There can be more significant impairment charges on BoCom, the USD3bn done was small


HSBC - The Narrative Seems to Be Missing Many Points of the Reality

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>In a surprise, the Hang Seng index committee has decided not to make any constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>We now see the index reaching its 100-member target in 2025 at the earliest, though we would not be surprised to see it spill into 2026 as well.</li>
<li>Free float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 1.2% resulting in a round trip trade of HK$4.54bn. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> is the biggest sell.</li>
</ul>


In a surprise, the Hang Seng index committee has decided not to make any constituent changes to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the March rebalance.
We now see the index reaching its 100-member target in 2025 at the earliest, though we would not be surprised to see it spill into 2026 as well.
Free float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 1.2% resulting in a round trip trade of HK$4.54bn. HSBC Holdings (5 HK) is the biggest sell.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Idling at 82 Members; 100 Members in 2025 at the Earliest

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings Plc is a British universal bank and financial services group operating worldwide. It offers a wide range of services including retail and personal banking, wealth management, commercial banking, global banking, and markets and securities services. The company was founded in British Hong Kong in 1865 and is headquartered in London, England.

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HSBC (HSBA LN)

EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

John Ley

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying. New State Council and CSRC Plans

Strong SOUTHBOUND Connect flows continue. Only one net sell day since the end of Chinese New Year. H-shares were flat to up while A-shares were...

Travis Lundy

StandChart Is Likely to Have More China Bohai Impairment

StandChart is likely to take more impairment hit on China Bohai with continue NIM decline of the latter. We reviewed both of HSBC and StandChart's...

Fern Wang

HSBC - The Narrative Seems to Be Missing Many Points of the Reality

The HSBC narrative seems to be missing much of the reality: the sharp drop in NIM in 4Q23, the worsening proportion of bad CRE loans to total, and...

Daniel Tabbush

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Idling at 82 Members; 100 Members in 2025 at the Earliest

No changes for the HSI in March. There are free float and capping changes though. HSBC is a passive sell due to capping, ICBC and Trip.com are buys...

Brian Freitas

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EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

​Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

John Ley

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying. New State Council and CSRC Plans

Strong SOUTHBOUND Connect flows continue. Only one net sell day since the end of Chinese New Year. H-shares were flat to up while A-shares were...

Travis Lundy

StandChart Is Likely to Have More China Bohai Impairment

StandChart is likely to take more impairment hit on China Bohai with continue NIM decline of the latter. We reviewed both of HSBC and StandChart's...

Fern Wang

HSBC - The Narrative Seems to Be Missing Many Points of the Reality

The HSBC narrative seems to be missing much of the reality: the sharp drop in NIM in 4Q23, the worsening proportion of bad CRE loans to total, and...

Daniel Tabbush

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Idling at 82 Members; 100 Members in 2025 at the Earliest

No changes for the HSI in March. There are free float and capping changes though. HSBC is a passive sell due to capping, ICBC and Trip.com are buys...

Brian Freitas

Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...