Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Masayoshi Son is floating a $1trn AI factory in Arizona in exchange for tax breaks.</li>
<li>NTT Data out, Rohm in. Downside for Ibiden, but also small buying for Fasty, Terumo, Konami and others.</li>
<li>Renesas announces details of its Wolfspeed restructuring deal which includes kitchen sinking the losses this year.</li>
</ul>


Masayoshi Son is floating a $1trn AI factory in Arizona in exchange for tax breaks.
NTT Data out, Rohm in. Downside for Ibiden, but also small buying for Fasty, Terumo, Konami and others.
Renesas announces details of its Wolfspeed restructuring deal which includes kitchen sinking the losses this year.


Japan Morning Connection: US Directly Attacks Iran and Requests Japan to Spend 5% of GDP on Defense

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121


Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

<ul>
<li>Marvell the latest US tech major to raise its TAM for AI helping buoy related names.</li>
<li>Deal that sees Wolfspeed briefly dipping into chapter11 may bode well for Renesas.</li>
<li>Sega Sammy lays out plans to get its valuations up and inline with peers as games surge given their tariff resilience.</li>
</ul>


Marvell the latest US tech major to raise its TAM for AI helping buoy related names.
Deal that sees Wolfspeed briefly dipping into chapter11 may bode well for Renesas.
Sega Sammy lays out plans to get its valuations up and inline with peers as games surge given their tariff resilience.


Japan Morning Connection: Fears over Iran Continue to Diminish Despite the Spectre of US Involvement

<ul>
<li>Hydrocarbon related names traded well with Trump set to remove limits on carbon and mercury emissions...watch MHI, Yokogawa and Chiyoda.</li>
<li>Intel +7.8% may help Ibiden, Micron +2.9% positive for Micronics, while semi-cap and power-semi's continued to move up.</li>
<li>Lock-Up expiry for Kioxia fast approaching could see shorts increase in a Kokusai Elec type situation.</li>
</ul>


Hydrocarbon related names traded well with Trump set to remove limits on carbon and mercury emissions...watch MHI, Yokogawa and Chiyoda.
Intel +7.8% may help Ibiden, Micron +2.9% positive for Micronics, while semi-cap and power-semi's continued to move up.
Lock-Up expiry for Kioxia fast approaching could see shorts increase in a Kokusai Elec type situation.


Japan Morning Connection: Trump Signals End to Biden Greenhouse Gas Emission Restrictions

Japan

IBIDEN CO, LTD. develops, produces, and markets ceramics, housing materials, and electronics.  The Company's products include printed circuit boards (PCB), graphite specialties, integrated circuit (IC) packages, ceramic fibers, melamine decorative high-pressure laminates, and pre-cut structural materials.

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Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: US Directly Attacks Iran and Requests Japan to Spend 5% of GDP on Defense

Defense related should be supported by reports on GDP defense spending along with Trump's move to directly bomb Iranian nuclear sites. Masayoshi...

Andrew Jackson

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: Fears over Iran Continue to Diminish Despite the Spectre of US Involvement

JP game companies Nintendo and Sega Sammy continue to rise. Battery names may start to suffer. Wolfspeed deal may positively impact Renesas.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Signals End to Biden Greenhouse Gas Emission Restrictions

Fossil fuel related names lead the way higher as restrictions on toxic gas emissions are rolled back. Hydrocarbon names also benefit.

Andrew Jackson

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