Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Indra Sistemas S.A. showcased a mixed yet promising performance in its recent quarterly earnings report.</li><li>The company demonstrated resilience and growth in several strategic areas amidst a favorable market environment driven by increased defense budgets in Spain and broader Europe.</li><li>Key financial metrics such as backlog, order intake, and income displayed notable increases, signaling robust future order flow and operational momentum.</li></ul>

Indra Sistemas S.A. showcased a mixed yet promising performance in its recent quarterly earnings report.The company demonstrated resilience and growth in several strategic areas amidst a favorable market environment driven by increased defense budgets in Spain and broader Europe.Key financial metrics such as backlog, order intake, and income displayed notable increases, signaling robust future order flow and operational momentum.

Indra Sistemas: Initiation of Coverage- Is This Underrated Tech Powerhouse Europe’s Next Big Defense Bet?

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Indra's potential merger with Escribano aims to strengthen its industrial base for future European defense programs, but governance concerns and shareholder dilution risks are creating significant market uncertainty.</li>
<li>The transaction’s structure is critical: a pure share swap would preserve Indra’s balance sheet health, while a heavy cash component could raise leverage dangerously, approaching 3.4x net debt/EBITDA.</li>
<li>Event-Driven investors should de-risk ahead of the April 30 board meeting, monitor deal terms closely, and prepare to pivot based on the merger’s financing structure, governance safeguards, and strategic fit.</li>
</ul>


Indra's potential merger with Escribano aims to strengthen its industrial base for future European defense programs, but governance concerns and shareholder dilution risks are creating significant market uncertainty.
The transaction’s structure is critical: a pure share swap would preserve Indra’s balance sheet health, while a heavy cash component could raise leverage dangerously, approaching 3.4x net debt/EBITDA.
Event-Driven investors should de-risk ahead of the April 30 board meeting, monitor deal terms closely, and prepare to pivot based on the merger’s financing structure, governance safeguards, and strategic fit.


Building the Arsenal: Indra’s Possible Merger with EM&E

<ul>
<li>Indra is shifting to a pure-play defence and space company, divesting from IT services (Minsait) to achieve higher valuation multiples in line with aerospace and defence peers.</li>
<li>Hispasat and Hisdesat acquisition will generate €400 million in revenue and €190 million EBITDA by 2026, with synergies reaching €50-70 million EBITDA by 2030.</li>
<li>Indra’s valuation could rise 40-60% by 2026, as defence and space grow to 65% of revenue, increasing EV/EBITDA multiples from ~7x to 10-12x.</li>
</ul>


Indra is shifting to a pure-play defence and space company, divesting from IT services (Minsait) to achieve higher valuation multiples in line with aerospace and defence peers.
Hispasat and Hisdesat acquisition will generate €400 million in revenue and €190 million EBITDA by 2026, with synergies reaching €50-70 million EBITDA by 2030.
Indra’s valuation could rise 40-60% by 2026, as defence and space grow to 65% of revenue, increasing EV/EBITDA multiples from ~7x to 10-12x.


Indra’s Transformation into a Pure-Play Defence and Space Company

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.</li>
<li>Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.
Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.


India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121


Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Spain

Indra Sistemas, S.A. offers information technology products and services.  The Company offers systems integration and outsourcing services, installs railway management and ticketing systems, installs road traffic toll and signaling systems, constructs satellite communications systems, manufactures radar air defense systems, and installs insurance management systems.

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Indra Sistemas Sa (IDR SM)

Indra Sistemas: Initiation of Coverage- Is This Underrated Tech Powerhouse Europe’s Next Big Defense Bet?

Indra Sistemas S.A. showcased a mixed yet promising performance in its recent quarterly earnings report. The company demonstrated resilience and...

Baptista Research

Building the Arsenal: Indra’s Possible Merger with EM&E

Indra eyes Escribano to boost defense capabilities, but governance risks and potential dilution loom. Investors must watch April 30 for deal terms...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Indra’s Transformation into a Pure-Play Defence and Space Company

Indra is focusing on defence and space, divesting from IT services to increase valuation multiples and potentially see a 40-60% rise in valuation...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indra Sistemas: Initiation of Coverage- Is This Underrated Tech Powerhouse Europe’s Next Big Defense Bet?

Indra Sistemas S.A. showcased a mixed yet promising performance in its recent quarterly earnings report. The company demonstrated resilience and...

Baptista Research

Building the Arsenal: Indra’s Possible Merger with EM&E

Indra eyes Escribano to boost defense capabilities, but governance risks and potential dilution loom. Investors must watch April 30 for deal terms...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Indra’s Transformation into a Pure-Play Defence and Space Company

​Indra is focusing on defence and space, divesting from IT services to increase valuation multiples and potentially see a 40-60% rise in valuation...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

Indra is focusing on defence and space, divesting from IT services to increase valuation multiples and potentially see a 40-60% rise in valuation...