Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, BSE 100, and BSE 200 Indices in the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>As things stand, there could be two index changes for the SENSEX index.</li>
<li>There could be two ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 Index and four ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 Index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, BSE 100, and BSE 200 Indices in the June 2025 index rebal event.
As things stand, there could be two index changes for the SENSEX index.
There could be two ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 Index and four ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 Index.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun25: One Change to Expectations; US$500mn One-Way Collectively

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The aggregate performance of the Q3FY25 earnings season was subdued, in line with expectations, but reflected marginal improvement on a QoQ basis, led by energy, auto, and cement sectors.</li><li>Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 5%/8% YoY and 5%/6% QoQ across the HSIE coverage (~234 stocks).</li><li>Earnings of mid/small-cap stocks grew slower at 3.8% in this quarter as compared to 8.7% registered by the large cap segment</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The aggregate performance of the Q3FY25 earnings season was subdued, in line with expectations, but reflected marginal improvement on a QoQ basis, led by energy, auto, and cement sectors.Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 5%/8% YoY and 5%/6% QoQ across the HSIE coverage (~234 stocks).Earnings of mid/small-cap stocks grew slower at 3.8% in this quarter as compared to 8.7% registered by the large cap segmentContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Quarterly Flipbook: Diminishing growth, downgrades intensify across sectors

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Nearing the completion of 60% of the review period, there could be two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>With one stock right at the cusp of deletion from the index, there could be a third change too. Sector balance will be used to decide the list of inclusions.</li>
<li>The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes in the back end of 2024 but there has been huge underperformance this calendar year as stocks with nosebleed valuations have sold off.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the completion of 60% of the review period, there could be two changes for the BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the June rebalance.
With one stock right at the cusp of deletion from the index, there could be a third change too. Sector balance will be used to decide the list of inclusions.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes in the back end of 2024 but there has been huge underperformance this calendar year as stocks with nosebleed valuations have sold off.


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes for Now; Third Change at the Cusp

<ul>
<li>With the review period now complete, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-housing-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43675:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> are a hair's breadth apart on market cap and only one of them could be added to the index.</li>
<li>With quantitative criteria now being used to add stocks to the F&amp;O segment, it is possible there is no change to the index methodology to limit inclusion to F&amp;O members.</li>
</ul>


With the review period now complete, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.

Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) and Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) are a hair's breadth apart on market cap and only one of them could be added to the index.
With quantitative criteria now being used to add stocks to the F&amp;O segment, it is possible there is no change to the index methodology to limit inclusion to F&amp;O members.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

NSE Nifty Bank Index / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index</a> implied volatility could be seen as rich when compared to its own history and in comparison to realized volatility.</li>
<li>Putting implied volatility into context with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index</a> 200 day moving average will lead to a different conclusion. Selling volatility might not be the opportunity it seems.</li>
<li>This Insight provides a quantitative indication at which level implied volatility can be assessed as rich.</li>
</ul>



NSE Nifty Bank Index implied volatility could be seen as rich when compared to its own history and in comparison to realized volatility.
Putting implied volatility into context with the NSE Nifty Bank Index 200 day moving average will lead to a different conclusion. Selling volatility might not be the opportunity it seems.
This Insight provides a quantitative indication at which level implied volatility can be assessed as rich.


EQD | NSE Nifty Bank Index - Implied Volatility Not (Yet) Rich Enough.

India

IndusInd Bank Limited is a Mumbai-based Indian new generation bank established in 1994. The Bank provides a range of banking and financial services including  wholesale banking, credit monitoring, risk management, tele-banking, investment banking and commercial lending. IndusInd Bank operates branches throughout India as well as an office in Dubai and London.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Indusind Bank (IIB IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun25: One Change to Expectations; US$500mn One-Way Collectively

Collectively, we see one way flows of around US$500mn for BSE Sensex, BSE 100, and BSE 200 in June 2025 based on the latest data. Some names have...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quarterly Flipbook: Diminishing growth, downgrades intensify across sectors

The aggregate performance of the Q3FY25 earnings season was subdued, in line with expectations, but reflected marginal improvement on a QoQ basis,...

HDFC Securities

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes for Now; Third Change at the Cusp

We forecast 2 changes for the Sensex in June, but there could be a third. Passives need to trade 7-19x delivery volume. The forecast adds have...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March

There could be 7 changes for the NIFTYJR in March. The forecast adds have underperformed since the start of the year as momentum has sold off....

Brian Freitas

EQD | NSE Nifty Bank Index - Implied Volatility Not (Yet) Rich Enough.

Implied volatility for the NSE Nifty Bank Index may seem high historically, but seen in context with the index's 200 day moving average suggests...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun25: One Change to Expectations; US$500mn One-Way Collectively

Collectively, we see one way flows of around US$500mn for BSE Sensex, BSE 100, and BSE 200 in June 2025 based on the latest data. Some names have...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quarterly Flipbook: Diminishing growth, downgrades intensify across sectors

The aggregate performance of the Q3FY25 earnings season was subdued, in line with expectations, but reflected marginal improvement on a QoQ basis,...

HDFC Securities

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes for Now; Third Change at the Cusp

We forecast 2 changes for the Sensex in June, but there could be a third. Passives need to trade 7-19x delivery volume. The forecast adds have...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March

There could be 7 changes for the NIFTYJR in March. The forecast adds have underperformed since the start of the year as momentum has sold off....

Brian Freitas

EQD | NSE Nifty Bank Index - Implied Volatility Not (Yet) Rich Enough.

​Implied volatility for the NSE Nifty Bank Index may seem high historically, but seen in context with the index's 200 day moving average suggests...

Gaudenz Schneider

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun25: One Change to Expectations; US$500mn One-Way Collectively

Implied volatility for the NSE Nifty Bank Index may seem high historically, but seen in context with the index's 200 day moving average suggests...