Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Adding To The Confusion Again: Just when we thought Indian banking couldn’t get any muddier, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released its Report of the Internal Working Group (IWG) to Review Extant Ownership Guidelines and Corporate Structure for Indian Private Sector Banks which convened on June 12, 2020; and*Proposed Changes: The IWG has proposed: a) a higher promoter stake cap of 26% (from 15% currently); b) harmonization of corporate structures to non-operative financial holding companies (NOFHC); c) large corporates can be given a banking license subject to conditions and checks; and d) large non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) with assets greater than INR 500 bn can be considered for a banking license.

*Adding To The Confusion Again: Just when we thought Indian banking couldn’t get any muddier, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released its Report of the Internal Working Group (IWG) to Review Extant Ownership Guidelines and Corporate Structure for Indian Private Sector Banks which convened on June 12, 2020; and*Proposed Changes: The IWG has proposed: a) a higher promoter stake cap of 26% (from 15% currently); b) harmonization of corporate structures to non-operative financial holding companies (NOFHC); c) large corporates can be given a banking license subject to conditions and checks; and d) large non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) with assets greater than INR 500 bn can be considered for a banking license.

Reserve Bank of India – How Simple Becomes Really Complicated

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Allocations in Asian Financials stocks have fallen to all-time lows in Asia Ex-Japan active portfolios this year.</li>
<li>Fund managers move to underweight following $3bn in net outflows.</li>
<li>Managers exit ASEAN banks, weights drop in China banks. </li>
<li>On a stock level, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a> ,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> (-7.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> are the hardest hit.</li>
</ul>


Allocations in Asian Financials stocks have fallen to all-time lows in Asia Ex-Japan active portfolios this year.
Fund managers move to underweight following $3bn in net outflows.
Managers exit ASEAN banks, weights drop in China banks. 
On a stock level, ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) ,  Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) (-7.2%) and Indusind Bank (IIB IN) are the hardest hit.


* RBI Failure To Think Through Moratorium Leads To Continued Uncertainty for India: On September 3, 2020, the Supreme Court of India held a hearing on interest rate waivers for loans under moratorium granted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). On September 10th, the Supreme Court clarified: a) the matter under discussion is related to interest on interest payments and not on the interest payments themselves; and b) that banks should not classify loans as NPL for another two month period, if they were not classified NPLs on August 31st.. On October 5th, the Supreme Court required additional information on the case; and   *Further Clarification Expected October 13th.  The Supreme Court, however, stated that it is inclined to waive interest on interest payments for loans under moratorium loans; and that it will need to study the potential relief measures put forth by the RBI and government and take appropriate action. In the meantime, the Supreme Court has each to file all related documents decisions related to interest/moratoriums with the Court over next couple of weeks. We expect further clarity at the next hearing on October 13th – and are hopeful that this will be the final hearing.

* RBI Failure To Think Through Moratorium Leads To Continued Uncertainty for India: On September 3, 2020, the Supreme Court of India held a hearing on interest rate waivers for loans under moratorium granted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). On September 10th, the Supreme Court clarified: a) the matter under discussion is related to interest on interest payments and not on the interest payments themselves; and b) that banks should not classify loans as NPL for another two month period, if they were not classified NPLs on August 31st.. On October 5th, the Supreme Court required additional information on the case; and   *Further Clarification Expected October 13th.  The Supreme Court, however, stated that it is inclined to waive interest on interest payments for loans under moratorium loans; and that it will need to study the potential relief measures put forth by the RBI and government and take appropriate action. In the meantime, the Supreme Court has each to file all related documents decisions related to interest/moratoriums with the Court over next couple of weeks. We expect further clarity at the next hearing on October 13th – and are hopeful that this will be the final hearing.  

Reserve Bank of India - No Good Deed Goes Unpunished

* RBI Failure To Think Through Moratorium Leads To Continued Uncertainty for India: On September 3, 2020, the Supreme Court of India held a hearing on interest rate waivers for loans under moratorium granted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). On September 10th, the Supreme Court clarified: a) the matter under discussion is related to interest on interest payments and not on the interest payments themselves; and b) that banks should not classify loans as NPL for another two month period, if they were not classified NPLs on August 31st; and*Further Clarification Expected September 28th.  The Supreme Court, however, stated that it is inclined to waive interest on interest payments for loans under moratorium loans; and that it will need to study the potential relief measures put forth by the RBI and government and take appropriate action. In the meantime, the Supreme Court has each to file all related documents decisions related to interest/moratoriums with the Court over next couple of weeks. We expect further clarity at the next hearing on September 28th.

* RBI Failure To Think Through Moratorium Leads To Continued Uncertainty for India: On September 3, 2020, the Supreme Court of India held a hearing on interest rate waivers for loans under moratorium granted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). On September 10th, the Supreme Court clarified: a) the matter under discussion is related to interest on interest payments and not on the interest payments themselves; and b) that banks should not classify loans as NPL for another two month period, if they were not classified NPLs on August 31st; and*Further Clarification Expected September 28th.  The Supreme Court, however, stated that it is inclined to waive interest on interest payments for loans under moratorium loans; and that it will need to study the potential relief measures put forth by the RBI and government and take appropriate action. In the meantime, the Supreme Court has each to file all related documents decisions related to interest/moratoriums with the Court over next couple of weeks. We expect further clarity at the next hearing on September 28th. 

Reserve Bank of India – Toothless Tiger

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

The near-absence of a government stimulus to revive the Indian economy from the Covid-19 meltdown portends a severe and prolonged economic slowdown. This will squarely hit the banking industry with huge credit costs and low growth. In such a dismal scenario, the only lever available to the banks is cost management: to reduce costs and to leverage the existing cost structure to generate more business. In both respects, banks would have to adopt a revised business model: successfully implementing digitisation, which would entail re-engineering processes, developing new businesses and  taking market share from other banks must take precedence to reduction in headcount; salary cuts (starting from the bloated remuneration given to senior management); and a re-examination of overheads. As compared with government banks, private sector banks have a higher component of non-staff costs to staff costs, on account of the incentives they pay to direct sales agents (DSAs) and for business processing outsourcing (BPO); for government banks such work is done by their own staff. In the 1QFY2021 it would appear that banks have commenced cost cutting measures, as they reported a decline in non-staff operating expenses. However, management commentary claimed that this was on account of the loss in business, which resulted in lower expenses related to the business, such as sourcing fees and commissions to direct sales agents (DSA). But nevertheless the banks in our sample, with the exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a>, reported improvements in the cost-to-income (excluding domestic treasury profits) ratio.While the 1QFY2021 results reveal that the banks are aware of the importance of cost management, a lot more has to be done as credit costs in the coming days rise sharply. The only lever available to management to prop up profits in the face of the inevitable economic slowdown is to hasten the process of digitisation, thereby reducing headcount, develop new business verticals and slash salaries. Shareholders therefore need to closely monitor cost-to-income ratios stripped of treasury profits to determine which banks are successfully implementing cost management and digitalisation.

The near-absence of a government stimulus to revive the Indian economy from the Covid-19 meltdown portends a severe and prolonged economic slowdown. This will squarely hit the banking industry with huge credit costs and low growth. In such a dismal scenario, the only lever available to the banks is cost management: to reduce costs and to leverage the existing cost structure to generate more business. In both respects, banks would have to adopt a revised business model: successfully implementing digitisation, which would entail re-engineering processes, developing new businesses and  taking market share from other banks must take precedence to reduction in headcount; salary cuts (starting from the bloated remuneration given to senior management); and a re-examination of overheads. As compared with government banks, private sector banks have a higher component of non-staff costs to staff costs, on account of the incentives they pay to direct sales agents (DSAs) and for business processing outsourcing (BPO); for government banks such work is done by their own staff. In the 1QFY2021 it would appear that banks have commenced cost cutting measures, as they reported a decline in non-staff operating expenses. However, management commentary claimed that this was on account of the loss in business, which resulted in lower expenses related to the business, such as sourcing fees and commissions to direct sales agents (DSA). But nevertheless the banks in our sample, with the exception of Indusind Bank (IIB IN), reported improvements in the cost-to-income (excluding domestic treasury profits) ratio.While the 1QFY2021 results reveal that the banks are aware of the importance of cost management, a lot more has to be done as credit costs in the coming days rise sharply. The only lever available to management to prop up profits in the face of the inevitable economic slowdown is to hasten the process of digitisation, thereby reducing headcount, develop new business verticals and slash salaries. Shareholders therefore need to closely monitor cost-to-income ratios stripped of treasury profits to determine which banks are successfully implementing cost management and digitalisation.

For Banks, Cost Management Is the Only Way of Surviving the Long Slump

India

IndusInd Bank Limited is a Mumbai-based Indian new generation bank established in 1994. The Bank provides a range of banking and financial services including  wholesale banking, credit monitoring, risk management, tele-banking, investment banking and commercial lending. IndusInd Bank operates branches throughout India as well as an office in Dubai and London.

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Indusind Bank (IIB IN)

Reserve Bank of India – How Simple Becomes Really Complicated

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA: New Just when we thought Indian banking couldn’t get any muddier, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released its Report of the...

Thomas J. Monaco

Asia Ex-Japan Financials: Long Drop

Allocations in Financial stocks drop to all-time lows in Asia Ex-Japan active funds. Financials now key underweight holding, led by selling in the...

Steven Holden

Reserve Bank of India - No Good Deed Goes Unpunished

* RBI Failure To Think Through Moratorium Leads To Continued Uncertainty for India: On September 3, 2020, the Supreme Court of India held a hearing...

Thomas J. Monaco

Reserve Bank of India – Toothless Tiger

* RBI Failure To Think Through Moratorium Leads To Continued Uncertainty for India: On September 3, 2020, the Supreme Court of India held a hearing...

Thomas J. Monaco

For Banks, Cost Management Is the Only Way of Surviving the Long Slump

Banks need to develop new businesses, take market share from other banks, reduce overheads which must take precedence to reduction in headcount.

Hemindra Hazari

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