External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Given the rising competitive intensity for low-cost and granular deposits facing the banking system, loan-deposit ratios at historical highs, and expected rate cuts towards the back-end of FY25, we believe banks are faced with the challenge of quality deposit mobilisation, elevated funding costs (lagged deposit re-pricing) and softer incremental spreads</li><li>As banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is likely to keep valuations under check, especially of mid-sized, high-growth franchises</li><li>While we expect system-wide growth to decelerate by 90-100 bps from FY24 levels, we are conservative on incremental spreads across our coverage universe, pencilling in 50bps of rate cuts starting Q4FY25 (blended FY25 NIMs at 12-15bps below FY24)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Given the rising competitive intensity for low-cost and granular deposits facing the banking system, loan-deposit ratios at historical highs, and expected rate cuts towards the back-end of FY25, we believe banks are faced with the challenge of quality deposit mobilisation, elevated funding costs (lagged deposit re-pricing) and softer incremental spreadsAs banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is likely to keep valuations under check, especially of mid-sized, high-growth franchisesWhile we expect system-wide growth to decelerate by 90-100 bps from FY24 levels, we are conservative on incremental spreads across our coverage universe, pencilling in 50bps of rate cuts starting Q4FY25 (blended FY25 NIMs at 12-15bps below FY24)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Leveraged Financials: The Liquidity Conundrum

<ul><li>Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance (BAF) reported a mixed set of earnings with robust AUM growth (+34% YoY) despite a regulatory embargo on select products, offset by sharp NIM compression (21bps) and elevated credit costs (1.6% annualised)</li><li>While the regulatory embargo led to muted traction in customer acquisitions and loan volumes, a shift towards secured assets helped drive loan growth</li><li>On the back of its omnichannel strategy, the widest product suite and focus on cross-selling, we believe BAF is poised for ~23% AUM CAGR over the medium term, while also simultaneously delivering steady profitability</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance (BAF) reported a mixed set of earnings with robust AUM growth (+34% YoY) despite a regulatory embargo on select products, offset by sharp NIM compression (21bps) and elevated credit costs (1.6% annualised)While the regulatory embargo led to muted traction in customer acquisitions and loan volumes, a shift towards secured assets helped drive loan growthOn the back of its omnichannel strategy, the widest product suite and focus on cross-selling, we believe BAF is poised for ~23% AUM CAGR over the medium term, while also simultaneously delivering steady profitabilityContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, LTIMindtree, Macrotech Developers

<ul><li>IndusInd Bank: IndusInd Bank (IIB) reported stable earnings, led by strong loan growth (+20% YoY), stable NIMs and sustained traction in fee income</li><li>Deposit growth (+13% YoY) clocked in on the back of a higher share of retail deposits (LCR at 123%, Q2FY24: 118%)</li><li>However, CASA fell 85bps QoQ to 38.5%, showcasing system-wide pressure on low-cost deposits</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IndusInd Bank: IndusInd Bank (IIB) reported stable earnings, led by strong loan growth (+20% YoY), stable NIMs and sustained traction in fee incomeDeposit growth (+13% YoY) clocked in on the back of a higher share of retail deposits (LCR at 123%, Q2FY24: 118%)However, CASA fell 85bps QoQ to 38.5%, showcasing system-wide pressure on low-cost depositsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: IndusInd Bank, ICICI Prudential Life

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Z Score: The spread is currently negative between TCS and INFY, signaling a long signal on the spread, which means we believe it would retrace up towards the mean, which is the Z Score of 0</li><li>Lot Size: To ensure rupee neutral strategy, we suggest going long on TCS with 1 lot(s) and going short on INFY with 1 lot(s)</li><li>Returns Expectations: In the last 10 trades over the last 200 days, we have achieved 60% hit ratio over an average trade duration of 6.5 days. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Z Score: The spread is currently negative between TCS and INFY, signaling a long signal on the spread, which means we believe it would retrace up towards the mean, which is the Z Score of 0Lot Size: To ensure rupee neutral strategy, we suggest going long on TCS with 1 lot(s) and going short on INFY with 1 lot(s)Returns Expectations: In the last 10 trades over the last 200 days, we have achieved 60% hit ratio over an average trade duration of 6.5 days. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>There are few banking systems in the world or in Asia-Pacific that show such a steady but significant reduction in bad loans as in India. </li>
<li>Credit costs can remain subdued for sometime with better NPL levels and this can also lead the way to better loan volume, as loan officers take on more risk.</li>
<li>Banking penetration remains incredibly low in India compared with almost all countries in the region, and this means that there can be sustained robust growth.</li>
</ul>


There are few banking systems in the world or in Asia-Pacific that show such a steady but significant reduction in bad loans as in India. 
Credit costs can remain subdued for sometime with better NPL levels and this can also lead the way to better loan volume, as loan officers take on more risk.
Banking penetration remains incredibly low in India compared with almost all countries in the region, and this means that there can be sustained robust growth.


India Banks - Far Better Credit Metrics Seem Real, With Exceptional Long-Term Loan Growth Outlook

India

IndusInd Bank Limited is a Mumbai-based Indian new generation bank established in 1994. The Bank provides a range of banking and financial services including  wholesale banking, credit monitoring, risk management, tele-banking, investment banking and commercial lending. IndusInd Bank operates branches throughout India as well as an office in Dubai and London.

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Indusind Bank (IIB IN)

Leveraged Financials: The Liquidity Conundrum

Our hypothesis remains anchored around strong retail deposit franchises and declining spreads over the next 12 months, coupled with the...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, LTIMindtree, Macrotech Developers

Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance (BAF) reported a mixed set of earnings with robust AUM growth (+34% YoY) despite a regulatory embargo on select products

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: IndusInd Bank, ICICI Prudential Life

IndusInd Bank: IndusInd Bank (IIB) reported stable earnings, led by strong loan growth (+20% YoY), stable NIMs and sustained traction in fee income

HDFC Securities

Parallel Trades -16 January 2024

he spread is currently negative between TCS and INFY, signaling a long signal on the spread, which means we believe it would retrace up towards the...

Axis Direct

India Banks - Far Better Credit Metrics Seem Real, With Exceptional Long-Term Loan Growth Outlook

India's banks are seeing consistent and strong reduction of NPLs, which appears to be real, not cosmetic. There is vast scope for more loan...

Daniel Tabbush

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