Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

Shenzhen Transsion Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Firmus pulled its USD 5.5bn ASX IPO. AS Watson's USD 30bn dual listing was reportedly delayed to 2027, and Moonshot reportedly eyes an HK IPO of up to USD 5bn.</li>
<li>ESWIN, the week's only HK listing, raised USD 319m and fell 1.0% on day one. Eight listings in the past month have a median return of -2.5% since IPO.</li>
<li>On HKEX, one company filed an AP and three posted PHIPs. Transsion's USD 428m A+H IPO lists on 15 Oct.</li>
</ul>


Firmus pulled its USD 5.5bn ASX IPO. AS Watson's USD 30bn dual listing was reportedly delayed to 2027, and Moonshot reportedly eyes an HK IPO of up to USD 5bn.
ESWIN, the week's only HK listing, raised USD 319m and fell 1.0% on day one. Eight listings in the past month have a median return of -2.5% since IPO.
On HKEX, one company filed an AP and three posted PHIPs. Transsion's USD 428m A+H IPO lists on 15 Oct.


This Week in APAC ECM (Oct 4-10): Firmus Pulls ASX IPO; Moonshot Eyes USD 5bn; Jio Sets Price Band

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.</li>
<li>Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.
Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate


Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 19 May 2026 I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-navel-gazing-thinking-about-the-value-of-toshiba" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:238776" rel="noopener">[Japan Navel-Gazing] Thinking About The Value of Toshiba</a>. I pointed out that it was a fair bit more than people might think. </li>
<li>Since then, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> shares are up 95% and the value of Toshiba's shares in Kioxia are up an additional ¥4trln.</li>
<li>That has repercussions. Since I wrote, one company told investors the impact on their results. There are read-throughs.</li>
</ul>


On 19 May 2026 I wrote [Japan Navel-Gazing] Thinking About The Value of Toshiba. I pointed out that it was a fair bit more than people might think. 
Since then, Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) shares are up 95% and the value of Toshiba's shares in Kioxia are up an additional ¥4trln.
That has repercussions. Since I wrote, one company told investors the impact on their results. There are read-throughs.


[More Japan Navel-Gazing] Thinking About The Value of Toshiba with Kioxia at ¥96k

<ul>
<li>Toshiba was taken over in late 2023 by a consortium led by local PE firm Japan Industrial Partners. The official takeover price was ¥2.0 trillion. </li>
<li>That was financed by ¥1.2trln of senior lending, ¥200bn of prefs, ¥520bn of equity, and ¥235.5bn of mezzanine finance which meant net debt on Day1 was likely about ¥1.1trln.</li>
<li>EBITDA was ¥180bn in Mar24, ¥338bn in Mar25, and ¥482bn in Mar26. Things are improving. And Toshiba held Kioxia shares. That's gone well too. How well? Look inside.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba was taken over in late 2023 by a consortium led by local PE firm Japan Industrial Partners. The official takeover price was ¥2.0 trillion. 
That was financed by ¥1.2trln of senior lending, ¥200bn of prefs, ¥520bn of equity, and ¥235.5bn of mezzanine finance which meant net debt on Day1 was likely about ¥1.1trln.
EBITDA was ¥180bn in Mar24, ¥338bn in Mar25, and ¥482bn in Mar26. Things are improving. And Toshiba held Kioxia shares. That's gone well too. How well? Look inside.


[Japan Navel-Gazing] Thinking About The Value of Toshiba

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>For Sep 2025, nine new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$3bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~56%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For Sep 2025, nine new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$3bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~56%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2025 Wrap: ReNew Energy Global, Digital Hold., Mandom, Paramount Bed, Spindex

Japan

INFRONEER Holdings Inc. offers infrastructure construction services. The Company provides energy construction, road construction, airport construction, exhibition hall construction, and more. INFRONEER Holdings also produces construction equipment.

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INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP)

This Week in APAC ECM (Oct 4-10): Firmus Pulls ASX IPO; Moonshot Eyes USD 5bn; Jio Sets Price Band

This week in APAC ECM: Firmus pulled its ASX IPO of up to USD 5.5bn, Moonshot reportedly targeted up to USD 5bn in Hong Kong, and Jio reportedly...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Upgrading China to Overweight. Europe Breaking Out. Japan Remains Attractive. All signs point to the $ACWI uptrend continuing for the foreseeable...

Vermilion Research

[More Japan Navel-Gazing] Thinking About The Value of Toshiba with Kioxia at ¥96k

Kioxia is up 95% in less than a month. That means my navel-gazing about Toshiba four weeks ago is now outdated. So now it is UPdated. It's still...

Travis Lundy

[Japan Navel-Gazing] Thinking About The Value of Toshiba

In the 5 days since I published, Toshiba's Kioxia shares have added ¥930bn in value. After tax assuming sold, that would be ¥650bn and ¥324/Rohm...

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2025 Wrap: ReNew Energy Global, Digital Hold., Mandom, Paramount Bed, Spindex

For the month of Sept, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$2bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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