Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>China’s economic slowdown will continue to be a major cause for concern for the global economy.</li><li>Slowing economy together with declining with FX reserves could see RMB come under pressure.</li><li>RMB downside pressure to spillover into other emerging market currencies.</li></ul>

China’s economic slowdown will continue to be a major cause for concern for the global economy.Slowing economy together with declining with FX reserves could see RMB come under pressure.RMB downside pressure to spillover into other emerging market currencies.

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ol><li>Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official numbers indicate.</li><li>Large retailers appear to be suffering near zero growth across a variety of products.</li><li>Online retailing is still growing rapidly but its rate of growth is slowing and remains responsible for only 10.6% of spending.</li><li>Due to the weakness in large retailers and strong but small market share of online retailers, this leaves only small and medium size retailers as driving official retail sales numbers. We find this a dubious conclusion.</li><li>The combined retail sales and physical output of consumer product data implies that retail and consumer spending is growing much closer to the 3-6% range than the official 11% retail sales growth.</li><li>Related services like transport and hotel is showing significant weakness that is more reflective of an overall weak retail and services sector.</li></ol>

Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official numbers indicate.Large retailers appear to be suffering near zero growth across a variety of products.Online retailing is still growing rapidly but its rate of growth is slowing and remains responsible for only 10.6% of spending.Due to the weakness in large retailers and strong but small market share of online retailers, this leaves only small and medium size retailers as driving official retail sales numbers. We find this a dubious conclusion.The combined retail sales and physical output of consumer product data implies that retail and consumer spending is growing much closer to the 3-6% range than the official 11% retail sales growth.Related services like transport and hotel is showing significant weakness that is more reflective of an overall weak retail and services sector.

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<p style="text-align: justify;">Ecstrat were amongst the first to highlight the explosive growth of working capital in non-financial companies in China. We monitor over 3,000 listed Chinese corporates and with 20% of those having now reported for 2015 we can start to draw some conclusions.</p><div class="content-highlight"><ul><li><em><strong>The 'cash flow recession' in corporate China continues.</strong></em></li></ul></div><div class="content-highlight"><ul><li><em><strong>Almost all sectors have experienced a rise in receivable days when comparing 2015 to 2014.</strong></em></li></ul></div><div class="content-highlight"><p><em><strong>Almost all sectors have seen an even larger increase in payable days, suggesting that the listed</strong></em>…</p></div>

Ecstrat were amongst the first to highlight the explosive growth of working capital in non-financial companies in China. We monitor over 3,000 listed Chinese corporates and with 20% of those having now reported for 2015 we can start to draw some conclusions.The 'cash flow recession' in corporate China continues.Almost all sectors have experienced a rise in receivable days when comparing 2015 to 2014.Almost all sectors have seen an even larger increase in payable days, suggesting that the listed…

Large Caps Squeezing SMEs in Early Reading of FY2015 Chinese Working Capital

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>While focus on dividend yield is common, we think secular growth in DPS over a long period of time is a stronger marker of robust earnings trajectory and shareholder friendliness. </li>
<li>Among stocks in Asian EM and DM, we screen 50 that raised their DPS every year over the past decade - a commendable performance given earnings dislocations during this period.</li>
<li>Stocks from Japan (24), HK (10), onshore China (6), India (6), Singapore (2) and Taiwan (2) make up our list. 10 are large and liquid with strong forecast EPS growth.</li>
</ul>


While focus on dividend yield is common, we think secular growth in DPS over a long period of time is a stronger marker of robust earnings trajectory and shareholder friendliness. 
Among stocks in Asian EM and DM, we screen 50 that raised their DPS every year over the past decade - a commendable performance given earnings dislocations during this period.
Stocks from Japan (24), HK (10), onshore China (6), India (6), Singapore (2) and Taiwan (2) make up our list. 10 are large and liquid with strong forecast EPS growth.


Asian Equities: Secular DPS Growth Matters, Not Just Dividend Yield. Presenting Our "Asia 50".

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Yeeper Nutrition Technology (Qingdao) Group / Equity Capital Markets

Yeeper Nutrition Technology (Qingdao) Group (YNT HK)

Yeeper Nutrition Technology (Qingdao) Group

<ul>
<li>Many companies enter the goat/sheep milk powder market due to higher gross margin than cow milk powder, but after years of development, this market has been in a shrinking trend.</li>
<li>With a closed-loop capability in full internal control, production and supply of core ingredients of demineralized goat and sheep whey, Yeeper has supply chain advantage, thus with higher pricing power.</li>
<li>Yeeper’ has shown the characteristics of "slowing revenue growth, and increasing pressure on net profit margin" due to intensified competition. Valuation could be lower than Yili but higher than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe</a>.</li>
</ul>


Many companies enter the goat/sheep milk powder market due to higher gross margin than cow milk powder, but after years of development, this market has been in a shrinking trend.
With a closed-loop capability in full internal control, production and supply of core ingredients of demineralized goat and sheep whey, Yeeper has supply chain advantage, thus with higher pricing power.
Yeeper’ has shown the characteristics of "slowing revenue growth, and increasing pressure on net profit margin" due to intensified competition. Valuation could be lower than Yili but higher than China Feihe.


Pre-IPO Yeeper Nutrition Technology (Qingdao) Group - Concerns About the Business and the Outlook

China

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. produces milk, powdered milk, ice cream, and other dairy products.  The Company also produces frozen food and noodles.

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

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Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

Marketnomix Country Insights - China

China’s economic slowdown will continue to be a major cause for concern for the global economy. Slowing economy together with declining with FX...

Rajan Govil

Retail and Consumer Activity in China

Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official...

Christopher Balding

Large Caps Squeezing SMEs in Early Reading of FY2015 Chinese Working Capital

Ecstrat were amongst the first to highlight the explosive growth of working capital in non-financial companies in China. We monitor over 3,000...

Mark Artherton

Asian Equities: Secular DPS Growth Matters, Not Just Dividend Yield. Presenting Our "Asia 50".

2026 began with a bang & so did our High Conviction ideas. In less than 2 weeks TSMC is up 9.7%, Zijin Mining up 8.4% & Hanwha Aerospace a...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Pre-IPO Yeeper Nutrition Technology (Qingdao) Group - Concerns About the Business and the Outlook

The goat/sheep milk powder market faces shrinking trend. Yeeper's closed-loop supply chain gives pricing advantage but with big competition...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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