European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Recommended all-cash €15.60 offer values InPost at €7.8bn, implying a 50% premium to the undisturbed price, backed by 48% irrevocable support, unanimous boards and fully committed certain-funds financing.</li>
<li>Transaction risk is low, primarily timing-driven: strong margin resilience, improving international ROIC and comfortable pro-forma debt service capacity reduce break risk, leaving regulatory duration and free-float tendering as key variables.</li>
<li>At €15.10, the 3.3% gross spread implies a ~90% market-implied success probability and mid-single-digit annualised returns on a Q4-2026 close, offering attractive risk-adjusted upside for event-driven investors.</li>
</ul>


Recommended all-cash €15.60 offer values InPost at €7.8bn, implying a 50% premium to the undisturbed price, backed by 48% irrevocable support, unanimous boards and fully committed certain-funds financing.
Transaction risk is low, primarily timing-driven: strong margin resilience, improving international ROIC and comfortable pro-forma debt service capacity reduce break risk, leaving regulatory duration and free-float tendering as key variables.
At €15.10, the 3.3% gross spread implies a ~90% market-implied success probability and mid-single-digit annualised returns on a Q4-2026 close, offering attractive risk-adjusted upside for event-driven investors.


Locker Secured: InPost’s Take-Private Trades Time, Not Uncertainty

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Aegon | starts EUR 227m share buyback today • BE Semiconductor Industries | records strong order intake in 25Q4 • Heineken | Dolf van den Brink to step down as CEO at the end of May • Wolters Kluwer | acquires StandardFusion for EUR 32m • Fagron | completes acquisition of University Compounding Pharmacy • TomTom | 4Q25 new car registrations expected to increase mid-single digit in Europe • Odido | revives plan for IPO in Amsterdam; possibly already this month • Dutch politics | the Netherlands heading for a minority coalition?</li><li>• Webinar | 𝗜𝗻𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗰𝗼𝗽𝗲: 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗕𝗲𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗕𝗶𝗱?</li><li>• Corporate agenda | week 3 – 8</li></ul>

In this edition: • Aegon | starts EUR 227m share buyback today • BE Semiconductor Industries | records strong order intake in 25Q4 • Heineken | Dolf van den Brink to step down as CEO at the end of May • Wolters Kluwer | acquires StandardFusion for EUR 32m • Fagron | completes acquisition of University Compounding Pharmacy • TomTom | 4Q25 new car registrations expected to increase mid-single digit in Europe • Odido | revives plan for IPO in Amsterdam; possibly already this month • Dutch politics | the Netherlands heading for a minority coalition?• Webinar | 𝗜𝗻𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗰𝗼𝗽𝗲: 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗕𝗲𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗕𝗶𝗱?• Corporate agenda | week 3 – 8

<ul>
<li>InPost’s disclosure that it has received an indicative proposal for the acquisition of all outstanding shares has materially increased the likelihood of a take-private transaction.</li>
<li>While the company initially provided no details, subsequent reporting by Bloomberg strongly supports the scenario outlined in our earlier analysis.</li>
<li>Strategically, a take-private makes sense.</li>
</ul>


InPost’s disclosure that it has received an indicative proposal for the acquisition of all outstanding shares has materially increased the likelihood of a take-private transaction.
While the company initially provided no details, subsequent reporting by Bloomberg strongly supports the scenario outlined in our earlier analysis.
Strategically, a take-private makes sense.


InPost | Coming Back to the Nest? (Part II)

<ul>
<li>We issued a company report (11 pages) featuring InPost.</li>
<li>InPost received an indicative proposal for a potential acquisition of all shares.</li>
<li>The company will evaluate the proposal, ensuring the interests of the company and all stakeholders are considered.</li>
</ul>


We issued a company report (11 pages) featuring InPost.
InPost received an indicative proposal for a potential acquisition of all shares.
The company will evaluate the proposal, ensuring the interests of the company and all stakeholders are considered.


<ul><li>In this edition: • Aegon | EGM Clears Path to US Redomiciliation • Ahold Delhaize | still holding the top-2 positions in e-commerce in the Netherlands • AkzoNobel/Axalta | EU remedies signal path to Axalta clearance • dsm-firmenich | policy uncertainty increasingly viewed as an investment constraint • Dutch housing market | supply improves; new-build affordability more of a challenge • Dutch household consumption | momentum strengthens, led by durable goods • E-com & Logistics | InPost: AI-driven customer service offers a second wave of efficiency gains</li></ul>

In this edition: • Aegon | EGM Clears Path to US Redomiciliation • Ahold Delhaize | still holding the top-2 positions in e-commerce in the Netherlands • AkzoNobel/Axalta | EU remedies signal path to Axalta clearance • dsm-firmenich | policy uncertainty increasingly viewed as an investment constraint • Dutch housing market | supply improves; new-build affordability more of a challenge • Dutch household consumption | momentum strengthens, led by durable goods • E-com & Logistics | InPost: AI-driven customer service offers a second wave of efficiency gains

Luxembourg

InPost S.A. is an e-commerce enablement platform. InPost provides delivery services through its network of automated parcel machines, including those in the UK, as well as to-door couriers and fulfillment services to e-commerce merchants.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

InPost (INPST NA)

Locker Secured: InPost’s Take-Private Trades Time, Not Uncertainty

InPost’s €15.60 take-private is a high-certainty, timing-driven arb. With 48% hard support and certain-funds financing, downside risk is limited...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Inpost SA - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Aegon | starts EUR 227m share buyback today • BE Semiconductor Industries | records strong order intake in 25Q4 • Heineken |...

The IDEA!

InPost | Coming Back to the Nest? (Part II)

We issued a follow-up report (5 pages) featuring InPost. IWe issued a follow-up report (5 pages) featuring InPost. Earlier this week, we...

The IDEA!

InPost | Coming Back to the Nest?

We issued a company report (11 pages) featuring InPost. InPost received an indicative proposal for a potential acquisition of all shares. The...

The IDEA!

PostNL NV - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Aegon | EGM Clears Path to US Redomiciliation • Ahold Delhaize | still holding the top-2 positions in e-commerce in the...

The IDEA!

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)