External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Economy Update 3QFY22 Balance of Payments/1HFY23 borrowing CAD at 2.7% of GDP in 3QFY22; 1HFY23 borrowing at 59% of budget The current account deficit (CAD) stood at US$23.2bn (2.7% of GDP) in 3QFY22, marginally lower than our estimate of US$23.9bn (3.2% of GDP).</li>
<li>The CAD widened from 1.3% of GDP in 2QFY22 on the back of a higher trade deficit.</li>
<li>The better-than-expected performance against our estimate in 3QFY22 was led by higher remittances (9.7% YoY) and services exports (17.8% YoY).</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Economy Update 3QFY22 Balance of Payments/1HFY23 borrowing CAD at 2.7% of GDP in 3QFY22; 1HFY23 borrowing at 59% of budget The current account deficit (CAD) stood at US$23.2bn (2.7% of GDP) in 3QFY22, marginally lower than our estimate of US$23.9bn (3.2% of GDP).
The CAD widened from 1.3% of GDP in 2QFY22 on the back of a higher trade deficit.
The better-than-expected performance against our estimate in 3QFY22 was led by higher remittances (9.7% YoY) and services exports (17.8% YoY).

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

3QFY22 Balance of Payments-1HFY23 Borrowing- Economy Update- CAD at 2.7% of GDP in 3QFY22

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>India’s Nifty Index has started the year significantly up and is testing key levels</li>
<li>These converge at 17,485-17,640 and should be watched closely in the short term</li>
<li>We have already seen a break when the Nifty Index is measured in USD terms</li>
</ul>


India’s Nifty Index has started the year significantly up and is testing key levels
These converge at 17,485-17,640 and should be watched closely in the short term
We have already seen a break when the Nifty Index is measured in USD terms


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>India's bear stance and short from 18,300 has just registered a fresh sell signal near the 17,800 resistance. The bear flag will break lower and test the 16,500/700 target zone.</li>
<li>The bear wedge displays an a-b-c corrective bounce with 17,200 pattern support as the level to  crack.</li>
<li>USD/INR has been a top USD long theme for a major upside breakout and just clearing the 75.50/60 old high resistance.</li>
</ul>


India's bear stance and short from 18,300 has just registered a fresh sell signal near the 17,800 resistance. The bear flag will break lower and test the 16,500/700 target zone.
The bear wedge displays an a-b-c corrective bounce with 17,200 pattern support as the level to  crack.
USD/INR has been a top USD long theme for a major upside breakout and just clearing the 75.50/60 old high resistance.


Cross Asset Strategy

As earlier notes outlined, US yields are on the rise again, potentially in a similar fashion to 2013 before the Fed announced its tapering of asset purchases. Back then we had what was called a “taper tantrum” where many EM currencies suffered. One of the worst hit was India. Rising yields in the US would invariably create some concern for positions in EM currencies as risk-reward parameters are re-drawn. In India’s case the picture is somewhat different to 2013 but still mixed as we look at it today. We have three areas to focus:<ul>
<li>
The Good: Foreign Exchange reserves and currency stability – Reserves today are more than twice what they were in 2013
</li>
<li>
The Bad: A stretched stock market that is in danger of seeing a short term pullback
</li>
<li>
The Ugly: The major rise taking place in energy prices. Not only is Oil about to surpass the 2018 high in Rupee terms but we must also notice the sharp rise in coal prices (and natural gas) which is going to cause a difficult period ahead for many people and dent India’s recovery path, even if only temporarily.
</li>
</ul>The judgement call here is that this is not going to be a repeat of 2013 for India. The short term is concerning while the longer-term outlook may not be as bad. Watch for a pullback in in the Nifty, probably by 1,000 points, and a further slip in INR and then for signs of stabilisation and possible opportunities to re-engage.

As earlier notes outlined, US yields are on the rise again, potentially in a similar fashion to 2013 before the Fed announced its tapering of asset purchases. Back then we had what was called a “taper tantrum” where many EM currencies suffered. One of the worst hit was India. Rising yields in the US would invariably create some concern for positions in EM currencies as risk-reward parameters are re-drawn. In India’s case the picture is somewhat different to 2013 but still mixed as we look at it today. We have three areas to focus:

The Good: Foreign Exchange reserves and currency stability – Reserves today are more than twice what they were in 2013


The Bad: A stretched stock market that is in danger of seeing a short term pullback


The Ugly: The major rise taking place in energy prices. Not only is Oil about to surpass the 2018 high in Rupee terms but we must also notice the sharp rise in coal prices (and natural gas) which is going to cause a difficult period ahead for many people and dent India’s recovery path, even if only temporarily.

The judgement call here is that this is not going to be a repeat of 2013 for India. The short term is concerning while the longer-term outlook may not be as bad. Watch for a pullback in in the Nifty, probably by 1,000 points, and a further slip in INR and then for signs of stabilisation and possible opportunities to re-engage.

For some time one of the favourite trends here has been the bullish one on the Nifty Index. There were numerous targets in mind including 17,400 on the Nifty Index itself and 240 on the Nifty in USD termsThis week we met the 17,400 target. At the same time the bulk of the move down on USDINR looks to be behind us. Looking at the relevant charts below it is prudent at this stage to expect a consolidation or correction down and possibly opportunities to re-engage in the Nifty Index at better levels later.Charts: Nifty Index | USDINR | Nifty in USDs | Nifty Index versus S&amp;P 500 Ratio

For some time one of the favourite trends here has been the bullish one on the Nifty Index. There were numerous targets in mind including 17,400 on the Nifty Index itself and 240 on the Nifty in USD termsThis week we met the 17,400 target. At the same time the bulk of the move down on USDINR looks to be behind us. Looking at the relevant charts below it is prudent at this stage to expect a consolidation or correction down and possibly opportunities to re-engage in the Nifty Index at better levels later.Charts: Nifty Index | USDINR | Nifty in USDs | Nifty Index versus S&amp;P 500 Ratio

India’s Nifty Target Met - Time for a Consolidation

India

The Indian rupee is the official currency of India. 

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3QFY22 Balance of Payments-1HFY23 Borrowing- Economy Update- CAD at 2.7% of GDP in 3QFY22

Economy Update 3QFY22 Balance of Payments/1HFY23 borrowing CAD at 2.7% of GDP in 3QFY22; 1HFY23 borrowing at 59% of budget The current account...

Nirmal Bang

India: The First Break of the Year?

The rebound in India's Nifty Index is looking increasingly encouraging, especially if we can break above 17,640. There is already a bullish break...

Shyam Devani

Nifty Fresh Short Signal

India's bear stance and short from 18,300 has just registered a fresh sell signal near the 17,800 resistance. The bear flag will break lower and...

Thomas Schroeder

India: The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly

India shows three distinct yet inter-related markets: FX Reserves, the Stock market, and Energy. Together they seem to present short term risks as...

Shyam Devani

India’s Nifty Target Met - Time for a Consolidation

India's Nifty Index has met the topside target in Rupee terms and almost in USD terms. Recent price action suggests it is prudent to step back and...

Shyam Devani

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