Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>During an otherwise uneventful week, the International Finance correspondents are having a party.</li><li>The first destination for the flying journalist class is the Johannesburg summit, which has not only cast the BRIC nations into the spotlight but has also introduced a rejuvenated composition of member states.</li><li>Ambitious assertions regarding unity, economic integration, and strategic cooperation have taken center stage, and the customary media channels appear to be embracing these prospects with an air of uncritical acceptance.</li></ul>

During an otherwise uneventful week, the International Finance correspondents are having a party.The first destination for the flying journalist class is the Johannesburg summit, which has not only cast the BRIC nations into the spotlight but has also introduced a rejuvenated composition of member states.Ambitious assertions regarding unity, economic integration, and strategic cooperation have taken center stage, and the customary media channels appear to be embracing these prospects with an air of uncritical acceptance.

EM by EM #18 – Why Jackson Hole is more important than Johannesburg

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former largest developer) is to suspend trading of at least 10 onshore bonds after a week where they failed to pay coupons of a couple of international payments.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng Property Index (HSP) is down 20% y-t-d but only lost 0.2% on Friday despite another landslide in the Country Garden stock.</li>
<li>If the HSP Index drops over the coming days, it ought to be taken as a signal that Chinese RE credit will decline further due to a lack of confidence in the financial system.</li>
</ul>


We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former largest developer) is to suspend trading of at least 10 onshore bonds after a week where they failed to pay coupons of a couple of international payments.
The Hang Seng Property Index (HSP) is down 20% y-t-d but only lost 0.2% on Friday despite another landslide in the Country Garden stock.
If the HSP Index drops over the coming days, it ought to be taken as a signal that Chinese RE credit will decline further due to a lack of confidence in the financial system.


Asset Allocation Watch: Country Garden Melt-Down? 5 Charts on Cross-Asset Spill-Overs!

<ul><li>As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to converging pressures.</li><li>It is essential to embrace the diversity in the EM space here.</li><li>I have been advocating throughout the early spring that EM’s were ahead and would be the first rate-cutters in this cycle and the LatAm carry trade will likely take in water in the aftermath – while the rate cuts have largely aligned with my expectations (which preceded market pricing I might add), the punishment in foreign exchange has been harsher and quicker than I anticipated.</li></ul>

As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to converging pressures.It is essential to embrace the diversity in the EM space here.I have been advocating throughout the early spring that EM’s were ahead and would be the first rate-cutters in this cycle and the LatAm carry trade will likely take in water in the aftermath – while the rate cuts have largely aligned with my expectations (which preceded market pricing I might add), the punishment in foreign exchange has been harsher and quicker than I anticipated.

EM BY EM #16 Counting coppers and rating cuts

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul>
<li>In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels.</li>
<li>Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are labeled as low risk.</li>
<li>Regarding the Russian ruble, it remains in the green territory.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>


In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels.
Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are labeled as low risk.
Regarding the Russian ruble, it remains in the green territory.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>After a 50 bp hike three times a row, RBI softened and increased the repo rate by 35 basis points to 6.25%.</li><li>Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate stands adjusted to 6%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate to 6.50%</li><li>The basic facts on the ground have not changed much since the last policy in September-end: global headwinds, inflationary pressures arising from both exogenous and endogenous sources, and adverse terms of trade balanced against an economy exhibiting nascent growth with all the growth engines - industrial, agricultural and service sectors - in early stages of combustion.</li></ul>

After a 50 bp hike three times a row, RBI softened and increased the repo rate by 35 basis points to 6.25%.Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate stands adjusted to 6%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate to 6.50%The basic facts on the ground have not changed much since the last policy in September-end: global headwinds, inflationary pressures arising from both exogenous and endogenous sources, and adverse terms of trade balanced against an economy exhibiting nascent growth with all the growth engines - industrial, agricultural and service sectors - in early stages of combustion.

India

The Indian rupee is the official currency of India. 

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EM by EM #18 – Why Jackson Hole is more important than Johannesburg

During an otherwise uneventful week, the International Finance correspondents are having a party. The first destination for the flying journalist...

Steno Research

Asset Allocation Watch: Country Garden Melt-Down? 5 Charts on Cross-Asset Spill-Overs!

We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former...

Steno Research

EM BY EM #16 Counting coppers and rating cuts

As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to...

Steno Research

EM Traffic Light July 2023

In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels. Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are...

Nordea

RBI Rate Decision

Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate stands adjusted to 6%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate to 6.50%

Untying The Gordian Knot

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