Macro, FX and Rates Strategist

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The EUR/USD seagull was salvaged at 3 pips against 19.5 paid after the 16 September hike, having been marked +181% on 21 August. The USD/INR short expired flat at 95.98.</li>
<li>The euro trade paid on fiscal dominance, not the US front end we entered on. We overrode the Iran exit rule because we read misread a three-week regime</li>
<li>FCNR carried the INR through a 20% rise in oil, but faltered as prices soared 37%. We still see US disinflation in the data, and think 3 hikes are rich.</li>
</ul>


The EUR/USD seagull was salvaged at 3 pips against 19.5 paid after the 16 September hike, having been marked +181% on 21 August. The USD/INR short expired flat at 95.98.
The euro trade paid on fiscal dominance, not the US front end we entered on. We overrode the Iran exit rule because we read misread a three-week regime
FCNR carried the INR through a 20% rise in oil, but faltered as prices soared 37%. We still see US disinflation in the data, and think 3 hikes are rich.


Learnings from Two Short-Dollar Positions in an Oil Crisis

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>India’s growth trajectory continues to look encouraging, with real GDP expansion forecast at 7.62% for 2025 and 6.48% for 2026.</li><li>Looking further out, projections point to growth stabilizing near 6.50% by 2028, both in headline terms, while similar trends are expected on a GDP per capita basis.</li><li>Total investment and gross national savings are both anticipated to hold steady, at roughly 33% and 31% of GDP respectively.</li></ul>

India’s growth trajectory continues to look encouraging, with real GDP expansion forecast at 7.62% for 2025 and 6.48% for 2026.Looking further out, projections point to growth stabilizing near 6.50% by 2028, both in headline terms, while similar trends are expected on a GDP per capita basis.Total investment and gross national savings are both anticipated to hold steady, at roughly 33% and 31% of GDP respectively.

Indian Economy: Quarterly Macro Note - June 19, 2026

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>RBI kept the policy rate unchanged and retained a neutral policy stance. But (in concert with MoF), a more conducive climate was created for foreign inflows into India's debt markets.  </li>
<li>Real GDP grew 7.8%YoY in Q4/FY26 with a current account surplus (0.7% of GDP). Our forecast for core CPI inflation is 4.2%, headline 4.8%, and no rate hikes in FY27.</li>
<li>With services (52% of the economy) growing 9%+, we expect real GDP to grow 7.3% in FY27, and strong net FDI and FPI inflows to bolster INR. Bullish. </li>
</ul>


RBI kept the policy rate unchanged and retained a neutral policy stance. But (in concert with MoF), a more conducive climate was created for foreign inflows into India's debt markets.  
Real GDP grew 7.8%YoY in Q4/FY26 with a current account surplus (0.7% of GDP). Our forecast for core CPI inflation is 4.2%, headline 4.8%, and no rate hikes in FY27.
With services (52% of the economy) growing 9%+, we expect real GDP to grow 7.3% in FY27, and strong net FDI and FPI inflows to bolster INR. Bullish. 


India: No Rate Hike in FY27, as Growth Slows a Tad and CAD Widens to 1% of GDP

<ul>
<li>With the goods trade deficit narrowing in Jan-Apr'26, the CAD will likely be only 0.6% of GDP in FY26, likely widening only a bit to 1% of GDP in FY27.</li>
<li>INR's REER has depreciated 15% in the past 18 months, primarily because of net capital outflows (not the small CAD). RBI sold INR in Jan-Feb'26, thus exaggerating subsequent war-driven depreciation.  </li>
<li>With net FPI inflows set to be positive in H2CY26, we expect INR to rebound to INR93/USD by end-'26, and a 10% rebound in Indian equities as RGDP accelerates. </li>
</ul>


With the goods trade deficit narrowing in Jan-Apr'26, the CAD will likely be only 0.6% of GDP in FY26, likely widening only a bit to 1% of GDP in FY27.
INR's REER has depreciated 15% in the past 18 months, primarily because of net capital outflows (not the small CAD). RBI sold INR in Jan-Feb'26, thus exaggerating subsequent war-driven depreciation.  
With net FPI inflows set to be positive in H2CY26, we expect INR to rebound to INR93/USD by end-'26, and a 10% rebound in Indian equities as RGDP accelerates. 


India: INR and Equities Under-Valued, with Small CAD, and EPS Set to Accelerate

<ul>
<li>Hurt by soaring US import tariffs in Aug'25-Mar'26, India's goods exports grew just 0.9% in FY26, while imports (bolstered by higher prices) grew 6.5%, widening the trade deficit to US$333bn.</li>
<li>Services exports have continued strongly outpacing imports. For the year to Feb'26, services imports grew 4%, services exports +9.6% and the services-trade surplus widened 16% to US$214bn.  </li>
<li>With an incomes surplus of US$100bn+ likely, the CAD is likely to be 0.5-0.6% of CAD in FY26, widening to 1% of GDP in FY27 amid higher crude oil prices. </li>
</ul>


Hurt by soaring US import tariffs in Aug'25-Mar'26, India's goods exports grew just 0.9% in FY26, while imports (bolstered by higher prices) grew 6.5%, widening the trade deficit to US$333bn.
Services exports have continued strongly outpacing imports. For the year to Feb'26, services imports grew 4%, services exports +9.6% and the services-trade surplus widened 16% to US$214bn.  
With an incomes surplus of US$100bn+ likely, the CAD is likely to be 0.5-0.6% of CAD in FY26, widening to 1% of GDP in FY27 amid higher crude oil prices. 


Higher Import Prices and Modest Export Rebound to Push CAD to 1% of GDP in FY27

India

The Indian rupee is the official currency of India. 

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Learnings from Two Short-Dollar Positions in an Oil Crisis

Post-mortem on two short-dollar trades through the oil shock: a EUR/USD seagull salvaged at −85% and a flat USD/INR short. What paid, which exit...

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

Indian Economy: Quarterly Macro Note - June 19, 2026

India’s growth trajectory continues to look encouraging, with real GDP expansion forecast at 7.62% for 2025 and 6.48% for 2026.

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

India: No Rate Hike in FY27, as Growth Slows a Tad and CAD Widens to 1% of GDP

RBI maintains policy rate, focuses on attracting foreign inflows to debt markets. With Services growing 9%, RGDP to grow 7.3% in FY27, as...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: INR and Equities Under-Valued, with Small CAD, and EPS Set to Accelerate

Smaller trade deficit in Jan-Apr'26 likely kept CAD at 0.6% of GDP in FY26, widening slightly to 1% in FY27. INR's REER fall caused by net FPI...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Higher Import Prices and Modest Export Rebound to Push CAD to 1% of GDP in FY27

India's goods exports struggle due to US tariffs, while services exports continue to outpace imports, leading to a widening trade deficit and but...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Learnings from Two Short-Dollar Positions in an Oil Crisis

Post-mortem on two short-dollar trades through the oil shock: a EUR/USD seagull salvaged at −85% and a flat USD/INR short. What paid, which exit...

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

Indian Economy: Quarterly Macro Note - June 19, 2026

India’s growth trajectory continues to look encouraging, with real GDP expansion forecast at 7.62% for 2025 and 6.48% for 2026.

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

India: No Rate Hike in FY27, as Growth Slows a Tad and CAD Widens to 1% of GDP

​RBI maintains policy rate, focuses on attracting foreign inflows to debt markets. With Services growing 9%, RGDP to grow 7.3% in FY27, as...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: INR and Equities Under-Valued, with Small CAD, and EPS Set to Accelerate

​Smaller trade deficit in Jan-Apr'26 likely kept CAD at 0.6% of GDP in FY26, widening slightly to 1% in FY27. INR's REER fall caused by net FPI...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Higher Import Prices and Modest Export Rebound to Push CAD to 1% of GDP in FY27

​India's goods exports struggle due to US tariffs, while services exports continue to outpace imports, leading to a widening trade deficit and but...

Prasenjit K. Basu

RBI maintains policy rate, focuses on attracting foreign inflows to debt markets. With Services growing 9%, RGDP to grow 7.3% in FY27, as...

Smaller trade deficit in Jan-Apr'26 likely kept CAD at 0.6% of GDP in FY26, widening slightly to 1% in FY27. INR's REER fall caused by net FPI...

India's goods exports struggle due to US tariffs, while services exports continue to outpace imports, leading to a widening trade deficit and but...