Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to converging pressures.</li><li>It is essential to embrace the diversity in the EM space here.</li><li>I have been advocating throughout the early spring that EM’s were ahead and would be the first rate-cutters in this cycle and the LatAm carry trade will likely take in water in the aftermath – while the rate cuts have largely aligned with my expectations (which preceded market pricing I might add), the punishment in foreign exchange has been harsher and quicker than I anticipated.</li></ul>

As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to converging pressures.It is essential to embrace the diversity in the EM space here.I have been advocating throughout the early spring that EM’s were ahead and would be the first rate-cutters in this cycle and the LatAm carry trade will likely take in water in the aftermath – while the rate cuts have largely aligned with my expectations (which preceded market pricing I might add), the punishment in foreign exchange has been harsher and quicker than I anticipated.

EM BY EM #16 Counting coppers and rating cuts

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul>
<li>In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels.</li>
<li>Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are labeled as low risk.</li>
<li>Regarding the Russian ruble, it remains in the green territory.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>


In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels.
Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are labeled as low risk.
Regarding the Russian ruble, it remains in the green territory.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>After a 50 bp hike three times a row, RBI softened and increased the repo rate by 35 basis points to 6.25%.</li><li>Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate stands adjusted to 6%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate to 6.50%</li><li>The basic facts on the ground have not changed much since the last policy in September-end: global headwinds, inflationary pressures arising from both exogenous and endogenous sources, and adverse terms of trade balanced against an economy exhibiting nascent growth with all the growth engines - industrial, agricultural and service sectors - in early stages of combustion.</li></ul>

After a 50 bp hike three times a row, RBI softened and increased the repo rate by 35 basis points to 6.25%.Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate stands adjusted to 6%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate to 6.50%The basic facts on the ground have not changed much since the last policy in September-end: global headwinds, inflationary pressures arising from both exogenous and endogenous sources, and adverse terms of trade balanced against an economy exhibiting nascent growth with all the growth engines - industrial, agricultural and service sectors - in early stages of combustion.

Technical Analysis

<div data-attrs='{"url":"https://gordianknot.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe"}'><div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><ul><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">I usually work with a base case view and not the most optimistic or pessimistic take, and this note is no different. </span></li><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">Its approach is forming an opinion on more probable in the next move and avoiding click baits 2-3 σ price targets.</span></li><li>I was expecting to do this note the following Monday as I thought with the NPC meeting and directive to state banks to act accordingly, any downward pressure on CNY would be avoided or measured.</li></ul></form></div></div>

I usually work with a base case view and not the most optimistic or pessimistic take, and this note is no different. Its approach is forming an opinion on more probable in the next move and avoiding click baits 2-3 σ price targets.I was expecting to do this note the following Monday as I thought with the NPC meeting and directive to state banks to act accordingly, any downward pressure on CNY would be avoided or measured.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Amid a global deceleration, India's real GDP grew 13.5%YoY in Apr-Jun'22, led by GFCF(+20%YoY) and PCE(+26%YoY). Actual growth was under-estimated because of errors in deflators for GDP and net exports. </li>
<li>Nominal GDP growth of 26.7%YoY enabled corporate tax revenue to rise 35%YoY and income taxes 50%YoY, bringing the 12mma of the fiscal deficit down to 6.1% of GDP. </li>
<li>As the government's market borrowing declines, it will crowd-in more private investment, enabling real GDP to grow 8% in FY23 despite the global slowdown. Stay Overweight. </li>
</ul>


Amid a global deceleration, India's real GDP grew 13.5%YoY in Apr-Jun'22, led by GFCF(+20%YoY) and PCE(+26%YoY). Actual growth was under-estimated because of errors in deflators for GDP and net exports. 
Nominal GDP growth of 26.7%YoY enabled corporate tax revenue to rise 35%YoY and income taxes 50%YoY, bringing the 12mma of the fiscal deficit down to 6.1% of GDP. 
As the government's market borrowing declines, it will crowd-in more private investment, enabling real GDP to grow 8% in FY23 despite the global slowdown. Stay Overweight. 


India: De-Leveraged, and Hence Set on a Path of Investment-Led Growth

India

The Indian rupee is the official currency of India. 

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EM BY EM #16 Counting coppers and rating cuts

As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to...

Steno Research

EM Traffic Light July 2023

In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels. Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are...

Nordea

RBI Rate Decision

Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate stands adjusted to 6%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate to 6.50%

Untying The Gordian Knot

Consequential Currency

I usually work with a base case view and not the most optimistic or pessimistic take, and this note is no different. Its approach is forming an...

Untying The Gordian Knot

India: De-Leveraged, and Hence Set on a Path of Investment-Led Growth

Real GDP will grow 8% in FY22/23 as strong nominal GDP (+26.7%YoY in Apr-Jun'22) bolsters tax revenue, lowers the fiscal deficit and crowds in...

Prasenjit K. Basu

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