IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a> disclosed a revised tender offer from CVC at JPY1,250, an 8.7% premium to the previous JPY1,150 offer. The offer has been declared final.</li>
<li>The revised offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges. Since the announcement of the offer, the share price has never exceeded it.</li>
<li>CVC seeks an irrevocable from Oasis, but Oasis has several reasons to ignore the overtures. Due to the high required acceptance rate, a gross spread of 0.2% is unattractive. </li>
</ul>



Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) disclosed a revised tender offer from CVC at JPY1,250, an 8.7% premium to the previous JPY1,150 offer. The offer has been declared final.
The revised offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges. Since the announcement of the offer, the share price has never exceeded it.
CVC seeks an irrevocable from Oasis, but Oasis has several reasons to ignore the overtures. Due to the high required acceptance rate, a gross spread of 0.2% is unattractive. 


Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumps to JPY1,250, but the Offer Remains Light

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a> has recommended CVC’s tender offer at JPY1,150, a 40.1% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is 41% below the IPO price and 11% below the midpoint IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>The lack of an irrevocable, open shareholder register and large foreign institutions' shareholding increases the odds of activism to force a bump.  </li>
</ul>



Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) has recommended CVC’s tender offer at JPY1,150, a 40.1% premium to the last close.
While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is 41% below the IPO price and 11% below the midpoint IFA DCF valuation range. 
The lack of an irrevocable, open shareholder register and large foreign institutions' shareholding increases the odds of activism to force a bump.  


Macromill (3978 JP): CVC’s Light Tender Offer at JPY1,150 Begs for Activism

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>Some low liquidity stocks in the TOPIX Index carry a liquidity factor of 0.75x resulting in their actual index weights being smaller than their default weights.</li>
<li>These names are reviewed every April and if the liquidity factor of a stock gets removed, the stock will enjoy buying flows from passive trackers of TOPIX.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's final predictions for the names that are likely to see their Liquidity Factors removed in April 2023.</li>
</ul>


Some low liquidity stocks in the TOPIX Index carry a liquidity factor of 0.75x resulting in their actual index weights being smaller than their default weights.
These names are reviewed every April and if the liquidity factor of a stock gets removed, the stock will enjoy buying flows from passive trackers of TOPIX.
In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's final predictions for the names that are likely to see their Liquidity Factors removed in April 2023.


TOPIX Index Upweights: Final Predictions for The "The Big April Basket” 2023

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a> announced a TOB for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)</a> having agreed a deal with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona Group (2168 JP)</a> to sell into a buyback.</li>
<li>Pasona will get ¥1,526/share, and having agreed, it <a href="https://www.pasonagroup.co.jp/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=o93EYocia9U%3d&amp;tabid=100&amp;mid=460" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the expected special profit to be booked in the FY to 31 May 2024.</li>
<li>At ¥113.6bn on a consolidated basis (¥122.3bn on parent), less ¥1.165bn of associated costs, that's ¥112.4bn at the lower end. That's ¥2,870/share. Then there's the rest of the business.</li>
</ul>


Today, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) announced a TOB for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) having agreed a deal with Pasona Group (2168 JP) to sell into a buyback.
Pasona will get ¥1,526/share, and having agreed, it announced the expected special profit to be booked in the FY to 31 May 2024.
At ¥113.6bn on a consolidated basis (¥122.3bn on parent), less ¥1.165bn of associated costs, that's ¥112.4bn at the lower end. That's ¥2,870/share. Then there's the rest of the business.


Pasona (2168) - Less Wrong Than Before But How Wrong Still Depends on Nambu-San

<ul>
<li>Last week I wrote about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ntt-s-partial-offer-for-marketing-consultant-intage-4326" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:112399" rel="noopener">NTT's Partial Offer for Marketing Consultant Intage (4326) -</a> (with a spurious hyphen at the end). </li>
<li>In the last couple of days, there have apparently been a few blocks printed on the tape. I have received questions about pricing and pro-ration. </li>
<li>So here I provide a set of 11 possible pro-ration cases, and suggest ways for traders and investors to think about the risks and possibilities.</li>
</ul>


Last week I wrote about NTT's Partial Offer for Marketing Consultant Intage (4326) - (with a spurious hyphen at the end). 
In the last couple of days, there have apparently been a few blocks printed on the tape. I have received questions about pricing and pro-ration. 
So here I provide a set of 11 possible pro-ration cases, and suggest ways for traders and investors to think about the risks and possibilities.


NTT's Partial Offer for Intage (4326) Part Deux - Refining Pro-Ration Expectations

Japan

Intage Holdings Inc provides marketing research services, marketing system solutions, and consulting services.

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Intage Holdings (4326 JP)

Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumps to JPY1,250, but the Offer Remains Light

CVC seeks an irrevocable from Oasis, but Oasis has several reasons to ignore the overtures. Due to the high required acceptance rate, a gross...

Arun George

Macromill (3978 JP): CVC’s Light Tender Offer at JPY1,150 Begs for Activism

Oasis has become a substantial shareholder with a 2.9m or 7.42% ownership ratio. Oasis has bought several times over terms – the highest price paid...

Arun George

TOPIX Index Upweights: Final Predictions for The "The Big April Basket” 2023

This insight (from Feb 2023) discusses the annual TOPIX Liquidity Factor (LF) removal event (which we call the "Big April Basket"). It might be a...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pasona (2168) - Less Wrong Than Before But How Wrong Still Depends on Nambu-San

Pasona will get its bundle of cash selling Benefit One. That will leave ~¥135bn of net cash against a ¥60bn match-off of prepays vs A/R vs a ¥107bn...

Travis Lundy

NTT's Partial Offer for Intage (4326) Part Deux - Refining Pro-Ration Expectations

When I wrote this, 9 out of 11 cases presented, including my base case, had NAVF-held shares being tendered (whether they sell, or they tender)....

Travis Lundy

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