Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>If you haven’t heard the news, <a href="https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1719/intel-announces-retirement-of-ceo-pat-gelsinger" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pat Gelsinger is “retiring</a>.” The reality is this was not a retirement but a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/intel-ceo-pat-gelsinger-retire-2024-12-02/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">firing of Pat</a>.</li><li>His brief stint of 1386 days was surprising because not only was he the most technically competent CEO of the last few bad apples at Intel, but he was also among the shortest.</li><li>Pat has by no means been perfect, and the conference at UBS kind of showed the frustrations that the board likely had with Pat.</li></ul>

If you haven’t heard the news, Pat Gelsinger is “retiring.” The reality is this was not a retirement but a firing of Pat.His brief stint of 1386 days was surprising because not only was he the most technically competent CEO of the last few bad apples at Intel, but he was also among the shortest.Pat has by no means been perfect, and the conference at UBS kind of showed the frustrations that the board likely had with Pat.

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Last week <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> announced a 5 billion USD investment into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>. </li>
<li>If the collaboration between the two tech giants is successful, it could lead to a revival of the entire Intel supply chain.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> has historically been closely linked to Intel, so any revival of Intel has the potential to benefit AEM substantially.</li>
</ul>


Last week NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) announced a 5 billion USD investment into Intel Corp (INTC US). 
If the collaboration between the two tech giants is successful, it could lead to a revival of the entire Intel supply chain.

AEM (AEM SP) has historically been closely linked to Intel, so any revival of Intel has the potential to benefit AEM substantially.


AEM Holdings: Nvidia's Investment in Intel to Drive AEM Re-Rating?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible) </li>
<li>But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and  Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away. </li>
<li>The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.</li>
</ul>


ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible) 
But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and  Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away. 
The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.


ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pony-ai-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44035:1" rel="noopener">Pony AI (PONY US)</a> raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Pony AI IPO Lockup - US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Intel Down But Not Out -- Reportedly Wins Major Microsoft Foundry Contract; Significant Interest from Nvidia and Google</li>
<li>AMD CEO Lisa Su Presents to U.S. Senate -- Taiwan is America’s Key Ally in the AI Chip Race</li>
<li>Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected</li>
</ul>


Intel Down But Not Out -- Reportedly Wins Major Microsoft Foundry Contract; Significant Interest from Nvidia and Google
AMD CEO Lisa Su Presents to U.S. Senate -- Taiwan is America’s Key Ally in the AI Chip Race
Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

The Death of Intel: When Boards Fail

If you haven’t heard the news, Pat Gelsinger is “retiring.” The reality is this was not a retirement but a firing of Pat. His brief stint of 1386...

Fabricated Knowledge

AEM Holdings: Nvidia's Investment in Intel to Drive AEM Re-Rating?

NVIDIA's $5 billion investment in Intel could revive Intel's supply chain, benefiting companies like AEM linked to Intel.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nicolas Baratte

Pony AI IPO Lockup - US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales

Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C

Intel secures Microsoft contract, AMD emphasizes Taiwan alliance in AI chip race, Mediatek poised for growth at Computex Taiwan.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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The Death of Intel: When Boards Fail

If you haven’t heard the news, Pat Gelsinger is “retiring.” The reality is this was not a retirement but a firing of Pat. His brief stint of 1386...

Fabricated Knowledge

AEM Holdings: Nvidia's Investment in Intel to Drive AEM Re-Rating?

​NVIDIA's $5 billion investment in Intel could revive Intel's supply chain, benefiting companies like AEM linked to Intel.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

​ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nicolas Baratte

Pony AI IPO Lockup - US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales

Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C

​Intel secures Microsoft contract, AMD emphasizes Taiwan alliance in AI chip race, Mediatek poised for growth at Computex Taiwan.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

NVIDIA's $5 billion investment in Intel could revive Intel's supply chain, benefiting companies like AEM linked to Intel.

ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Intel secures Microsoft contract, AMD emphasizes Taiwan alliance in AI chip race, Mediatek poised for growth at Computex Taiwan.