AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Samsung Foundry’s utilisation is recovering on 4nm/8nm, but 2nm yields keep break-even out of reach; TSMC tightness and Tesla’s AI6 deal are the near-term demand supports.</li>
<li>TSMC’s 3nm is effectively sold out through 2027, turning what began as a CoWoS bottleneck into a wafer constraint and pushing customers to hedge via Samsung and Intel.</li>
<li>AI is creating a new materials bottleneck in indium phosphide, while China’s CXMT accelerates DRAM scale-up, narrowing the process gap and reshaping bargaining power.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Foundry’s utilisation is recovering on 4nm/8nm, but 2nm yields keep break-even out of reach; TSMC tightness and Tesla’s AI6 deal are the near-term demand supports.
TSMC’s 3nm is effectively sold out through 2027, turning what began as a CoWoS bottleneck into a wafer constraint and pushing customers to hedge via Samsung and Intel.
AI is creating a new materials bottleneck in indium phosphide, while China’s CXMT accelerates DRAM scale-up, narrowing the process gap and reshaping bargaining power.


[Wafer Watch] Foundry Loading, 3nm Scarcity, and New Materials Constraints

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Post-China supply chain reevaluation in ASEAN offers strategic shifts and growth opportunities for businesses.</li><li>Peak season does not improve 3Q24 memory spot pricing, with overall market trends remaining stable.</li><li>Generative AI market set to reach $1.5T by 2030, with Taiwan leading in hardware development; software &amp; services also show promising future growth.</li></ul>

Post-China supply chain reevaluation in ASEAN offers strategic shifts and growth opportunities for businesses.Peak season does not improve 3Q24 memory spot pricing, with overall market trends remaining stable.Generative AI market set to reach $1.5T by 2030, with Taiwan leading in hardware development; software &amp; services also show promising future growth.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (03-Sep-2024): Supply chain shifts in ASEAN post China

Taiwan

IntelliEPI Inc manufactures epi-wafers on GaAs and Inp substrates. Major clients of the company are electronics and optoelectronics manufacuturers.

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Intelliepi Inc (4971 TT)

[Wafer Watch] Foundry Loading, 3nm Scarcity, and New Materials Constraints

Samsung’s utilisation improves, TSMC’s 3nm is sold out, InP substrates tighten, and CXMT accelerates its DRAM build-out.

Mint Finance

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (03-Sep-2024): Supply chain shifts in ASEAN post China

Colley Hwang discusses ASEAN expansion post-China, Peak season does not boost 3Q24 memory spot pricing, while Generative AI market expected to...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

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