Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

International Airlines Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Following AF-KLM and IAG results we refresh our forecasts, and our detailed quarterly bridge analysis in 2024 suggests each can grow earnings this year.</li>
<li>IAG clearly differentiates itself from AF-KLM with strong FCF generation while AF-KLM is unlikely to generate positive FCF before 2025 as it pays obligations deferred through COVID.</li>
<li>​Lufthansa continues to appear highest risk in 2024 given as capacity restoration catches up with peers.</li>
</ul>


Following AF-KLM and IAG results we refresh our forecasts, and our detailed quarterly bridge analysis in 2024 suggests each can grow earnings this year.
IAG clearly differentiates itself from AF-KLM with strong FCF generation while AF-KLM is unlikely to generate positive FCF before 2025 as it pays obligations deferred through COVID.
​Lufthansa continues to appear highest risk in 2024 given as capacity restoration catches up with peers.


European Airlines – FCF the Key Differentiator Between AF-KLM and IAG

<ul>
<li>We are most ahead of consensus for IAG in 2024, and recognising Lufthansa's highest-in-group double-digit capacity growth rate in 2024 may render its earnings most difficult to forecast/vulnerable to disappointment.</li>
<li>For AF-KLM 2024 seems a crucial year to demonstrate it can grow earnings in more challenging conditions if it is to increase confidence it can reach near-€4bn EBIT by 2028.</li>
<li>Delta reports 2023 results today, and its outlook commentary will be important to frame 1Q24 prospects on the Transatlantic, which should encourage that 2024 will prove resilient.</li>
</ul>


We are most ahead of consensus for IAG in 2024, and recognising Lufthansa's highest-in-group double-digit capacity growth rate in 2024 may render its earnings most difficult to forecast/vulnerable to disappointment.
For AF-KLM 2024 seems a crucial year to demonstrate it can grow earnings in more challenging conditions if it is to increase confidence it can reach near-€4bn EBIT by 2028.
Delta reports 2023 results today, and its outlook commentary will be important to frame 1Q24 prospects on the Transatlantic, which should encourage that 2024 will prove resilient.


European Airlines - Bridging Quarterly 2024 Prospects Encourages with Fuel Tailwinds/Tight Supply

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

International Airlines Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>IAG Presents better than expected Q4 2022 results and announces that it will acquire the remaining 80% of Air Europa for €400 million in a cash and shares deal.</li>
<li>The purchase price implies valuing 100% of Air Europa at €500 million, which is in line with expectations and is half of the €1,000 million agreed in November 2019.</li>
<li>Air Europa and IAG finally reach an agreement and clear an uncertainty. It makes strategic sense to create a larger intercontinental hub between Europe and Latin America in Madrid,</li>
</ul>


IAG Presents better than expected Q4 2022 results and announces that it will acquire the remaining 80% of Air Europa for €400 million in a cash and shares deal.
The purchase price implies valuing 100% of Air Europa at €500 million, which is in line with expectations and is half of the €1,000 million agreed in November 2019.
Air Europa and IAG finally reach an agreement and clear an uncertainty. It makes strategic sense to create a larger intercontinental hub between Europe and Latin America in Madrid,


The recent reforms incorporate "loyalty shares" as an option, which in practice come to transform the 'one share one vote' rule that prevailed in listed companies to protect equal voting rights of shareholders. The instrument equates the Spanish rules with those of other European Union countries, such as Germany, Italy, France or the Netherlands, among others, and aims to reward long-term investors, also protecting companies against short-term investors (opportunistic funds).
The Government toughens the takeover law before the arrival of 'loyal investors' on fear that hard core shareholders will take control of Spanish companies with the new double voting system.
According to the change in the regulation, an investor who exceeds 30% of the vote of a company listed due to the double voting rights of the loyalty shares, will have three months to decide whether to launch a takeover bid, reduce participation or waive its new political rights.
The Ministry of Finance discreetly introduces the change in the new Securities Market Law.
In Spain, the companies that establish the double voting system will be less prone to receiving a takeover offer. If it is already difficult to carry out an offer now without the support of the hard core nucleus on shareholders (for instance, MásMóvil has had to agree with those of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/euskaltel-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21263:1" rel="noopener">Euskaltel SA (EKT SM)</a> ), it will be next to impossible under the new framework.

The recent reforms incorporate "loyalty shares" as an option, which in practice come to transform the 'one share one vote' rule that prevailed in listed companies to protect equal voting rights of shareholders. The instrument equates the Spanish rules with those of other European Union countries, such as Germany, Italy, France or the Netherlands, among others, and aims to reward long-term investors, also protecting companies against short-term investors (opportunistic funds).
The Government toughens the takeover law before the arrival of 'loyal investors' on fear that hard core shareholders will take control of Spanish companies with the new double voting system.
According to the change in the regulation, an investor who exceeds 30% of the vote of a company listed due to the double voting rights of the loyalty shares, will have three months to decide whether to launch a takeover bid, reduce participation or waive its new political rights.
The Ministry of Finance discreetly introduces the change in the new Securities Market Law.
In Spain, the companies that establish the double voting system will be less prone to receiving a takeover offer. If it is already difficult to carry out an offer now without the support of the hard core nucleus on shareholders (for instance, MásMóvil has had to agree with those of Euskaltel SA (EKT SM) ), it will be next to impossible under the new framework.

Loyalty Shares in Spain: Double-Voting Rights Could Hinder Takeovers

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rolls-royce-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22121:1" rel="noopener">Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN)</a> Rights Offering announced on 1 October has confounded me. I thought that a situation where shares were trading at GBp130 and offering 10 rights for every three shares held to be exercised at GBp32 each, meaning that investors who owned shares had to decide to reinvest 82% of their existing exposure just to buy the new shares and NOT get diluted would mean that long-only holders would sell. Instead, after seeing shares drop 20% in two days, they promptly rallied 100% in the next five days and have basically settled at just below 80% up from where they were at announcement. Today, Rolls Royce holders <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-rolls-royce-hldg/rolls-royce-shareholders-approve-two-billion-pound-rights-issue-idUSKBN27C1KX" target="_blank" rel="noopener">approved</a> the Rights Issue at the shareholder meeting today ("overwhelmingly" according to Chairman Ian Davis). Formal results will be published later.The Rights go ex- tomorrow.  The change in share price changes the exposure for long/short funds who happen to have shorted it here. That is the nature of rights offerings. With the rights exercise price so far below where the real-time TERP (Theoretical Ex-Rights Price) stands, it would seem shareholders have become significantly more bullish.

The Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN) Rights Offering announced on 1 October has confounded me. I thought that a situation where shares were trading at GBp130 and offering 10 rights for every three shares held to be exercised at GBp32 each, meaning that investors who owned shares had to decide to reinvest 82% of their existing exposure just to buy the new shares and NOT get diluted would mean that long-only holders would sell. Instead, after seeing shares drop 20% in two days, they promptly rallied 100% in the next five days and have basically settled at just below 80% up from where they were at announcement. Today, Rolls Royce holders approved the Rights Issue at the shareholder meeting today ("overwhelmingly" according to Chairman Ian Davis). Formal results will be published later.The Rights go ex- tomorrow.  The change in share price changes the exposure for long/short funds who happen to have shorted it here. That is the nature of rights offerings. With the rights exercise price so far below where the real-time TERP (Theoretical Ex-Rights Price) stands, it would seem shareholders have become significantly more bullish. 

United Kingdom

International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. (IAG) is a British-Spanish multinational airline holding company. It provides passenger and cargo air transportation services, operating major airline brands such as British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus, Vueling, and LEVEL. The company was formed in January 2011 and has its corporate headquarters in London, UK, with its registered office in Madrid, Spain.

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International Airlines Group (IAG LN)

European Airlines – FCF the Key Differentiator Between AF-KLM and IAG

Deep dive on the quarterly earnings outlook for AF-KLM and IAG which illustrates the scope for each to grow EBITDAR in 2024 despite persistent...

Neil Glynn

European Airlines - Bridging Quarterly 2024 Prospects Encourages with Fuel Tailwinds/Tight Supply

Detailed analysis of 2024 prospects for the European network carriers suggests margin resilience given fuel tailwinds and tight supply. Quarterly...

Neil Glynn

IAG Acquires Air Europa

IAG has agreed with Globalia to acquire the remaining 80% of the issued share capital of Air Europa, for an amount of €400 million. The deal is...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Loyalty Shares in Spain: Double-Voting Rights Could Hinder Takeovers

In Spain, the companies that establish the double voting system will be less prone to takeover, such as Repsol SA (REP SM) and Telefonica SA (TEF...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Rolls Royce Rights Roll Off

Rolls Royce Rights go ex- on 28 October. A sharp pop in shares since the Rights were confirmed at end-Sep has led to shares 70+% higher vs pre...

Travis Lundy

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