Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see up to four M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the run up to the March 2025 review.</li>
<li>Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and one change for the F250 index during the March 2025 rebalance. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
We see up to four M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the run up to the March 2025 review.
Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and one change for the F250 index during the March 2025 rebalance. 


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar 25: Mega Addition for Coke & Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The new article on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> from TV Tokyo is causing a dip on top of last week's weakness. This is a dip to buy.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>'s Offer is now open for tendering. Ignore the rumours. Zhang Wei will tender. Expect payment before Chinese New Year. </li>
<li>Accounting solely for the pre-IPO investors, 164.6m shares (US$1.9bn) in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ubtech-robotics-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36469:1" rel="noopener">UBTech Robotics (9880 HK)</a> will be unlocked, ~39.2% of the firm’s total shares outstanding, and 91 days of three-month ADV.</li>
</ul>


The new article on Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) from TV Tokyo is causing a dip on top of last week's weakness. This is a dip to buy.

CPMC Holdings (906 HK)'s Offer is now open for tendering. Ignore the rumours. Zhang Wei will tender. Expect payment before Chinese New Year. 
Accounting solely for the pre-IPO investors, 164.6m shares (US$1.9bn) in UBTech Robotics (9880 HK) will be unlocked, ~39.2% of the firm’s total shares outstanding, and 91 days of three-month ADV.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, CPMC, UBTech Robotics, Macromill, 2024 Best-Of

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

International Distribution Services / Event-Driven

International Distribution Services (IDS LN)

<ul>
<li>Approval and Safeguards: The UK government approved EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with legally binding commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters, tax residence, and universal service obligations.</li>
<li>IDS faces declining mail volumes, delivery fines, and the need for operational reforms; EP Group aims to revitalize the company leveraging expertise in energy and logistics sectors.</li>
<li>A done deal, in my view. The acquisition is expected to close in Q1 2025.</li>
</ul>


Approval and Safeguards: The UK government approved EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with legally binding commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters, tax residence, and universal service obligations.
IDS faces declining mail volumes, delivery fines, and the need for operational reforms; EP Group aims to revitalize the company leveraging expertise in energy and logistics sectors.
A done deal, in my view. The acquisition is expected to close in Q1 2025.


Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In today's edition: • KPN | fiber revenues continue to grow, partly at the cost of cable and copper • PostNL / IDS | UK government approves IDS takeover by Křetínský • Sif Holding | production not in danger despite Moselle blockage</li></ul>

In today's edition: • KPN | fiber revenues continue to grow, partly at the cost of cable and copper • PostNL / IDS | UK government approves IDS takeover by Křetínský • Sif Holding | production not in danger despite Moselle blockage

What's News in Amsterdam - 16 December (KPN | PostNL / IDS | Sif Holding)

<ul>
<li>Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a>'s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.</li>
<li>Two activist shareholders. And long only upping its stake. Heavily discounted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a> is in play.</li>
<li>A HUGE new buyback for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-paint-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13340:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Paint (4613 JP)</a>. Really big. Buy Kansai Paint vs Nippon Paint. One can buy the pop. One can buy any dips after the pop. </li>
</ul>


Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)'s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.
Two activist shareholders. And long only upping its stake. Heavily discounted China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) is in play.
A HUGE new buyback for Kansai Paint (4613 JP). Really big. Buy Kansai Paint vs Nippon Paint. One can buy the pop. One can buy any dips after the pop. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

United Kingdom

International Distribution Services plc is a British holding company providing postal and courier services globally. It operates primarily through its subsidiaries, Royal Mail and Parcelforce Worldwide in the UK, and General Logistics Systems (GLS) internationally, offering collection, sorting, and delivery of letters and parcels. The company is headquartered in London, England, and was founded in 2013 as a holding company for Royal Mail.

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International Distribution Services (IDS LN)

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar 25: Mega Addition for Coke & Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

There are multiple possibilities of intra-review index changes for the F100/250 family in 1Q CY2025. It might be a good idea to revisit this insight.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, CPMC, UBTech Robotics, Macromill, 2024 Best-Of

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Green Light from British Government

UK government approves EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters and service obligations.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

What's News in Amsterdam - 16 December (KPN | PostNL / IDS | Sif Holding)

In today's edition: • KPN | fiber revenues continue to grow, partly at the cost of cable and copper • PostNL / IDS | UK government approves IDS...

The IDEA!

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar 25: Mega Addition for Coke & Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

There are multiple possibilities of intra-review index changes for the F100/250 family in 1Q CY2025. It might be a good idea to revisit this insight.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, CPMC, UBTech Robotics, Macromill, 2024 Best-Of

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Green Light from British Government

​UK government approves EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters and service obligations.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

What's News in Amsterdam - 16 December (KPN | PostNL / IDS | Sif Holding)

In today's edition: • KPN | fiber revenues continue to grow, partly at the cost of cable and copper • PostNL / IDS | UK government approves IDS...

The IDEA!

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

UK government approves EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters and service obligations.