Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With earnings today (which beat guidance), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a> announced upbeat guidance for next year, a very large dividend hike from ¥130/share to ¥230/share, and a Very Large Buyback.</li>
<li>The buyback is ¥20bn (vs ¥47bn market cap) or 3.5mm shares (31.3%). It starts 2 June. Astute Murakami trackers may recognise the potential pattern here.</li>
<li>If the company buys back all 3.5mm shares at just below book, EPS of ¥756 = 12.9% ROE and PER of 7.8x. Even up 30% from here that isn't super-rich.</li>
</ul>


With earnings today (which beat guidance), Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced upbeat guidance for next year, a very large dividend hike from ¥130/share to ¥230/share, and a Very Large Buyback.
The buyback is ¥20bn (vs ¥47bn market cap) or 3.5mm shares (31.3%). It starts 2 June. Astute Murakami trackers may recognise the potential pattern here.
If the company buys back all 3.5mm shares at just below book, EPS of ¥756 = 12.9% ROE and PER of 7.8x. Even up 30% from here that isn't super-rich.


[Japan Activism] Murakami Owns ~42% and Company Announces 31.3% Buyback

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a> announced the results of its Buyback Tender Offer to repurchase up to 3,999,999 shares (35.8% of shares out ex-Treasury) at ¥5,000/share. </li>
<li>Murakami-San owned 42% of the voting rights at announcement, then bought more on the dip just below ¥5,000/share. </li>
<li>The Tender Offer Buyback was "successful" in that it bought back 3.3mm shares. But the result was FAR more interesting than I expected. Surprising Results with Surprising Implications</li>
</ul>


Today, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced the results of its Buyback Tender Offer to repurchase up to 3,999,999 shares (35.8% of shares out ex-Treasury) at ¥5,000/share. 
Murakami-San owned 42% of the voting rights at announcement, then bought more on the dip just below ¥5,000/share. 
The Tender Offer Buyback was "successful" in that it bought back 3.3mm shares. But the result was FAR more interesting than I expected. Surprising Results with Surprising Implications


[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Buyback Tender - Surprising Results and Implications

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a> announced it would increase its buyback from 3.5mm shares to 4.0mm shares (31.3% to 35.8%). It also announced a Tender Offer Buyback.</li>
<li>The tender offer starts tomorrow and goes til mid-July, paid 8 August. Murakami Group will tender a minimum of 3.3mm shares (more likely 4.2mm). </li>
<li>This is not a huge immediate win, but it's OK. And it changes the structure of the company's balance sheet, ROE, effective ROE, and possibly its dividend. </li>
</ul>


Today after the close, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced it would increase its buyback from 3.5mm shares to 4.0mm shares (31.3% to 35.8%). It also announced a Tender Offer Buyback.
The tender offer starts tomorrow and goes til mid-July, paid 8 August. Murakami Group will tender a minimum of 3.3mm shares (more likely 4.2mm). 
This is not a huge immediate win, but it's OK. And it changes the structure of the company's balance sheet, ROE, effective ROE, and possibly its dividend. 


[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518) Ups Buyback Tender to 35.8%, Murakami-San Group To Sell

<ul>
<li>I wrote about this stock in May 2024. At the time, Japan activist Murakami-san had gone from 5% to 20% in a hurry. Shortly after, he was at 29%. </li>
<li>Then he fiddled/sold/bought/waited/sold. The stock fell in late 2024 as a quant fund sold. Murakami-san started buying again. In 3 weeks to 7 January bought from 27.02% to 34.51%.</li>
<li>By my calculation, as of last week he has 38.4% of votes. This is worth a closer look again. It's a discount to BVPS but ask yourself why this big.</li>
</ul>


I wrote about this stock in May 2024. At the time, Japan activist Murakami-san had gone from 5% to 20% in a hurry. Shortly after, he was at 29%. 
Then he fiddled/sold/bought/waited/sold. The stock fell in late 2024 as a quant fund sold. Murakami-san started buying again. In 3 weeks to 7 January bought from 27.02% to 34.51%.
By my calculation, as of last week he has 38.4% of votes. This is worth a closer look again. It's a discount to BVPS but ask yourself why this big.


[JAPAN Activism] Murakami Buying Mitsui Matshima (1518 JP) BIGLY - Now At 38% Aiming at Control?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a> was trading ¥2,800-3,200 earlier this year before Murakami-san bought a large stake. All the news of coal shut down and cash pile were in the price.</li>
<li>After he bought, the stock popped. It fell back, went sideways in a range, and for 5 weeks has been falling in a straight line. </li>
<li>There's a reason for that. But it may not be a great reason. And the stock is in a great place.</li>
</ul>



Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) was trading ¥2,800-3,200 earlier this year before Murakami-san bought a large stake. All the news of coal shut down and cash pile were in the price.
After he bought, the stock popped. It fell back, went sideways in a range, and for 5 weeks has been falling in a straight line. 
There's a reason for that. But it may not be a great reason. And the stock is in a great place.


[JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason

Japan

Mitsui Matsushima Co., Ltd. sells coal primarily in the Kyushu region.  The Company also produces construction machinery, cement, and building materials. Mitsui Matsushima operates supermarkets and real estate business as well.

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Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)

[Japan Activism] Murakami Owns ~42% and Company Announces 31.3% Buyback

Mitsui Matsushima popped after big 31% buyback news, but is now +7.5% vs the day before. If it bought back all shares at ¥4995 (the day after the...

Travis Lundy

[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Buyback Tender - Surprising Results and Implications

The Tender Offer Buyback for Mitsui Matsushima had somewhat surprising results. This changes the nature of the back end. I had expected overhang....

Travis Lundy

[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518) Ups Buyback Tender to 35.8%, Murakami-San Group To Sell

Mitsui Matsushima have upped their buyback to 35+% in a Tender Offer Buyback. Murakami-san will sell. The result is a very cheap small cap stock...

Travis Lundy

[JAPAN Activism] Murakami Buying Mitsui Matshima (1518 JP) BIGLY - Now At 38% Aiming at Control?

Murakami-san bought 29% of Mitsui Matsushima in 6wks in Q2 2024, paused, and now has bought 9+% more in 3wks. At 38%, he dominates the register....

Travis Lundy

[JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason

Mitsui Matsushima was sold down. Seemed like one large quant fund selling, more shorting. The ramp since mid-Dec24 has been impressive. Nearly 40%....

Travis Lundy

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