Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With earnings today (which beat guidance), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a> announced upbeat guidance for next year, a very large dividend hike from ¥130/share to ¥230/share, and a Very Large Buyback.</li>
<li>The buyback is ¥20bn (vs ¥47bn market cap) or 3.5mm shares (31.3%). It starts 2 June. Astute Murakami trackers may recognise the potential pattern here.</li>
<li>If the company buys back all 3.5mm shares at just below book, EPS of ¥756 = 12.9% ROE and PER of 7.8x. Even up 30% from here that isn't super-rich.</li>
</ul>


With earnings today (which beat guidance), Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced upbeat guidance for next year, a very large dividend hike from ¥130/share to ¥230/share, and a Very Large Buyback.
The buyback is ¥20bn (vs ¥47bn market cap) or 3.5mm shares (31.3%). It starts 2 June. Astute Murakami trackers may recognise the potential pattern here.
If the company buys back all 3.5mm shares at just below book, EPS of ¥756 = 12.9% ROE and PER of 7.8x. Even up 30% from here that isn't super-rich.


[Japan Activism] Murakami Owns ~42% and Company Announces 31.3% Buyback

<ul>
<li>Buybacks are a central part of Corporate Japan's effort to improve corporate/capital governance. Lots of cross-holders want/need to sell. Lots of companies want to reduce excess equity.</li>
<li>This earnings season has seen a LOT of new buybacks announced. ¥7.3trln in the last month and that doesn't even include the biggest buybacks extant by March-end companies.</li>
<li>We are experimenting with new ways of displaying data/analytics for buybacks in Japan. To that end, we have a new tool. We hope users find it useful. We invite feedback.</li>
</ul>


Buybacks are a central part of Corporate Japan's effort to improve corporate/capital governance. Lots of cross-holders want/need to sell. Lots of companies want to reduce excess equity.
This earnings season has seen a LOT of new buybacks announced. ¥7.3trln in the last month and that doesn't even include the biggest buybacks extant by March-end companies.
We are experimenting with new ways of displaying data/analytics for buybacks in Japan. To that end, we have a new tool. We hope users find it useful. We invite feedback.


[Japan Buybacks] ¥7.3trln of Buybacks Announced In the Last Month - Data on Each, Plus History

<ul>
<li>I wrote about this stock in May 2024. At the time, Japan activist Murakami-san had gone from 5% to 20% in a hurry. Shortly after, he was at 29%. </li>
<li>Then he fiddled/sold/bought/waited/sold. The stock fell in late 2024 as a quant fund sold. Murakami-san started buying again. In 3 weeks to 7 January bought from 27.02% to 34.51%.</li>
<li>By my calculation, as of last week he has 38.4% of votes. This is worth a closer look again. It's a discount to BVPS but ask yourself why this big.</li>
</ul>


I wrote about this stock in May 2024. At the time, Japan activist Murakami-san had gone from 5% to 20% in a hurry. Shortly after, he was at 29%. 
Then he fiddled/sold/bought/waited/sold. The stock fell in late 2024 as a quant fund sold. Murakami-san started buying again. In 3 weeks to 7 January bought from 27.02% to 34.51%.
By my calculation, as of last week he has 38.4% of votes. This is worth a closer look again. It's a discount to BVPS but ask yourself why this big.


[JAPAN Activism] Murakami Buying Mitsui Matshima (1518 JP) BIGLY - Now At 38% Aiming at Control?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a> was trading ¥2,800-3,200 earlier this year before Murakami-san bought a large stake. All the news of coal shut down and cash pile were in the price.</li>
<li>After he bought, the stock popped. It fell back, went sideways in a range, and for 5 weeks has been falling in a straight line. </li>
<li>There's a reason for that. But it may not be a great reason. And the stock is in a great place.</li>
</ul>



Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) was trading ¥2,800-3,200 earlier this year before Murakami-san bought a large stake. All the news of coal shut down and cash pile were in the price.
After he bought, the stock popped. It fell back, went sideways in a range, and for 5 weeks has been falling in a straight line. 
There's a reason for that. But it may not be a great reason. And the stock is in a great place.


[JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Glass Lewis has now joined ISS in recommending holders vote against the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> merger, presumably as it relates to the ratio.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>, ASIC AND Cosette have effectively signed off on the Scheme Booklet's veracity. That should be assuring to investors. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>'s Scheme comfortable got up - despite a last minute hiccup - and poor governance - to adjourn the meeting.</li>
</ul>


Glass Lewis has now joined ISS in recommending holders vote against the Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)/Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) merger, presumably as it relates to the ratio.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ASIC AND Cosette have effectively signed off on the Scheme Booklet's veracity. That should be assuring to investors. 

Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)'s Scheme comfortable got up - despite a last minute hiccup - and poor governance - to adjourn the meeting.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia Merger, Mayne Pharma, Canvst, Insignia Financial

Japan

Mitsui Matsushima Co., Ltd. sells coal primarily in the Kyushu region.  The Company also produces construction machinery, cement, and building materials. Mitsui Matsushima operates supermarkets and real estate business as well.

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Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)

[Japan Activism] Murakami Owns ~42% and Company Announces 31.3% Buyback

Murakami-san bought 30% of Mitsui Matsushima in a month in 2024Q2. Then it fell. Then he bought more. Now the company is buying back 31%....

Travis Lundy

[Japan Buybacks] ¥7.3trln of Buybacks Announced In the Last Month - Data on Each, Plus History

Japan saw ¥7.3trln of buybacks announced in the March-end earnings season. Here we offer a tool to see them all, and past buyback patterns of each...

Travis Lundy

[JAPAN Activism] Murakami Buying Mitsui Matshima (1518 JP) BIGLY - Now At 38% Aiming at Control?

Murakami-san bought 29% of Mitsui Matsushima in 6wks in Q2 2024, paused, and now has bought 9+% more in 3wks. At 38%, he dominates the register....

Travis Lundy

[JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason

Mitsui Matsushima was sold down. Seemed like one large quant fund selling, more shorting. The ramp since mid-Dec24 has been impressive. Nearly 40%....

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia Merger, Mayne Pharma, Canvst, Insignia Financial

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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