Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven


For the month of May, 11 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$7.3bn.



Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow-up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.







New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




APN Property Group (APD AU) 
Property
0.2
Scheme
50%


APN Prop (APD AU): Dexus' Done Deal



Boral Ltd (BLD AU) 
Construction
4.8
Off-market
Nil


Boral Ltd (BLD AU): Seven's Nil Premium



Japara Healthcare (JHC AU) 
Healthcare
0.2
Scheme
30%


Japara Healthcare (JHC AU): Here Comes The Calvary


 



Hong Kong




Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK) 
Banking
0.2
Scheme
51.2%



Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK): Takeover Talk As Shares Pop
Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK): Yue Xiu's Offer Is Light



 



Japan




Aomori Bank (8342 JP) / Michinoku Bank (8350 JP) 
Bank
0.6
Merger



Aomori Bank &amp; Michinoku Bank Merger - Nothing To Write Home About Yet



EPS Holdings (4282 JP) 
Data/software
0.1
Tender Offer
35.5%


Another Too-Cheap MBO as Founder Takes Out EPS


 Locoguide (4497 JP) / Kufu (4399 JP)

Real estate
0.4
Merger



Locoguide (4497 JP) - Kufu (4399 JP): Merger Is a Done Deal



Maruka Machinery (7594 JP) / Furusato Industries (8087 JP) 
Trading
0.4
Merger



A Complex SmallCap Merger in Japan: Maruka (7594) And Furusato (8087)



Secom Joshinetsu (4342 JP) 
Security
0.3
Tender Offer
66.2%


Secom To Finally Buy Out Affiliate Secom Joshinetsu (4342)








Malaysia




Can-One Bhd (CAN MK) 
Manufacturing
0.1
MTO
15.8%


Can-One (CAN MK)? Yeoh Can Lah!



IHH Healthcare (IHH MK) 
Healthcare
N/A
N/A
N/A


IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): More Medicine For Mitsui?


Source: Smartkarma Insights






The above does not include BetMakers Technology Group (BET AU) lobbing a non-binding offer of A$4bn (A$1bn cash, $3bn scrip into BET) for Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU)'s wagering and media division, and Apollo's prior tilt - Tabcorp (TAH AU): Apollo Shows Its Hand.

Nor does the table include the rumoured merger between  Angang Steel Co Ltd (H) (347 HK) and Bengang Steel (000761 CH) - Amalgamated Steel: Merging Angang &amp; Bengang As, Bs, and Hs.



The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in May was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~31% (78 deals). This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2020 (158 deals) and 2019 (145 deals) of 31% and 31.5% respectively. 




Summary of News in May of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

No May update




Bingo Industries (BIN AU) 

1-May: Capital Group announced it has sold its entire 9.7% stake in Bingo Industries (BIN AU).




Crown Resorts (CWN AU) 

10-May: Crown Resorts: Blackstone &amp; Star Place Their Bets
17-May: Crown Says Blackstone's Bid Is Light. Undecided On Star
20-May: Crown Resorts Ltd: Blackstone Offer Rejected, Star Offer May Still Not Reflect True Forward Value




Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) 

No May update




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

27-May: Link Group (LNK AU): KKR Opens The Bidding For PEXA
31-May: Link Admin (LNK AU) Goes IPO Route For PEXA Afterall




Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU) 

2-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): More-Than-Double in Less than 2 Months After Apex Bump
6-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): Bidding War Continues as SS&amp;C Overbids for the 4th Time
14-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): +120% in ~2 Months but Bidding War Continues....




McPherson's Ltd (MCP AU) 

No May update




Mortgage Choice (MOC AU) 

26-Mau FIRB gives its approval



Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)

14-May: Target's Statement and Bidder's Statements were published. Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)'s Board has unanimously recommended shareholders to accept the Offer. 




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

12-May: Think Childcare (TNK AU) has agreed to extend the Exclusivity Period with Busy Bees to 31st May 2021 (vs. original deadline of 14th May). This is still a non-binding deal with an expected completion date to be in 1Q CY22. 




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

1-May: And so it goes - MAFM bumps its Offer for Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) to $1.26.
7-May: MAFM exercises a call option and acquires 16.2% of Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU).
28-May Roc bumps its Offer for Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) to $1.29/share.  And says it will overbid any MAFM counter! 




Vocus Communications (VOC AU) 

10-May: Vocus Comms (VOC AU): MIRA/Aware's Done Deal
19-May: Vocus Comms (VOC AU): MIRA/​Aware’s Scheme Doc Despatched. EGM On 22 June










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK) 

1-May: Beijing Digital (6188 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Fair
20-May: Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK)'s MGO is now unconditional in all respects. 




China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK) 

28-May: China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK): Movement In The Works?




China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) 

7-May: In its monthly update regarding a potential Offer, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) says there is no update.




China Youzan Limited (8083 HK) 

10-May: China Youzan (8083 HK): Reality Check As Shares Rollover




Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) 

4-May: Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) will hold an EGM on the 26 May for shareholders to vote on the sale of the Hong Kong and Taiwan warehouse businesses to Kerry Holdings. 
26-May: At its SGM, Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale of its Hong Kong, Taiwan warehouse business to Kerry Holdings.




New Century REIT (1275 HK) 

No May update




Rivera Holdings (281 HK) 

No April update




Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) 

3-May: Languang Justbon (2606 HK): Offer Now Open - For Up To Four Months










India


Comments (with links to insights)




Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) 

4-May: The Detailed Public Statement on Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) has been released. The Open Offer is scheduled tentatively to run from 18 June to 1 July, which means it is running Very Tight and the option is worth a bit less than I expected. But that just means there is more gamma. One could get big at the high Rs 1600s area. 




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

4-May: Vedanta Now Caught Up With Peers - A Different Skew Ahead










Japan


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




BeNEXT Group (2154 JP) 
No May update



Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No May update



Fuji Kosan Company (5009 JP) 
17-May:  Fuji Kosan Company (5009 JP) has responded to Aslead Strategic Value Fund's Tender Offer with its initial Target Opinion Statement which is "Opinion Withheld." This is because Fuji Kosan hasn't actually done anything yet - two weeks in. They have sent questions to Aslead, and Aslead has five business days to respond. This is slow-walking it. This tender offer is likely to be extended because of that.



Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) 

5-May: Hitachi Metals - Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?




Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

13-May: Honshu Chemical (4115) Shareholders Perhaps One Day From a Wrong Price Takeover
16-May:: Honshu Chemical Shareholders Get the Short End of the Stick As The Board Is Ex-Gourd




Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) 

6-May:  Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight
11-May:  Starwood Bumps Terms, Lowers Threshold on Invesco Office
13-May:  Invesco Office's Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day... Changes Things
20-May:  Invesco Office's Beige Knight (Deemed Dirty Gray By Markets) Suddenly Looks Brighter and Whiter
23-May:  Starwood Responds to Invesco Office's White Knight Proposal
24-May: Starwood has extended their Tender Offer on Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) from the 24th of May to 15th of June after the close of the 24th. They did not raise the price. This is basically the equivalent of Starwood calling Invesco's bluff. They can extend again if they want but they are going to make Invesco come out. They can change price later if they think it necessary.



Japan Asia (3751 JP)
No May update



Sawada Holdings (8699 JP) 

9-May:  Sawada Selldown Was NOT Done - Shareholder Structure Looks Different Now
23-May: Sawada Is A Different Stock Now
31-May:  Be Careful of Expectations on Sawada (8699)




Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) 

14-May: Toshiba – Shareholder Returns Trump Weak Guidance
17-May: Toshiba Results &amp; Shareholder Return - Possibly Big Impact Buyback Coming











New Zealand


Comments 




Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ) 

No May update











Singapore


Comments (with links to announcements)




Procurri Corporation (PROC SP) 

3-May: The Partial Offer has not become unconditional in all respects on the Closing Date and has therefore lapsed










Thailand


Comments




Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) 

No May update




Vinythai Public Co (VNT TB) 

No May update






Travis Lundy

<p>Starwood on Friday <strong><a href="https://29ee0acf-414a-4b9e-9199-c3d53f1732b6.filesusr.com/ugd/40de1d_2342941b032148f18a95a59af6e2c324.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">responded</a></strong> to the proposed Tender Offer by Invesco Real Estate (Cayman) (hereafter "IRE") for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-office-j-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7414:1" rel="noopener">Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP)</a> in a missive titled <em><strong>"Starwood Capital Group questions vague disclosure and low credibility of ‘intention’ to make counteroffer for Invesco Office JREIT."</strong></em></p><p><strong>Starwood had some other comments too.</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/208/153/original/Screenshot+2021-05-22+at+8.35.14+PM.png?1621686982" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="208153"></figure><p></p></section><p>How does one interpret this? Is Starwood right? </p><p>The market Friday did not seem to think so. It went right through Starwood's bid and traded ~12% of shares out on a day where shares settled could not be tendered, setting up a likely extension by Starwood.</p><div><p>More below the fold. </p></div><hr><div><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 723.2px;"><h3>The Insights to Date in the Starwood - Invesco Office REIT Tussle</h3></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;"><strong>Date</strong></td>
<td style="width: 92px;"><strong>Direction</strong></td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><strong>Title</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">5 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Bullish but...</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-targets-japan-s-first-hostile-reit-full-tob-for-invesco-office-j-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49976" rel="noopener">Starwood Targets Japan's First Hostile REIT Full TOB for Invesco Office J-REIT</a></em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">8 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Bearish but...</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-hostile-reit-tender-launched" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50112" rel="noopener">Starwood Hostile REIT Tender Launched</a></em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">15 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Bullish but...</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/invesco-office-j-reit-responds-to-starwood-s-hostile-offer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50381" rel="noopener">Invesco Office J-REIT Responds to Starwood's Hostile Offer</a></em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">23 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Bearish but...</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-rejection-of-extension-means-full-hostile-tender" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50641" rel="noopener">Starwood Rejection of Extension Means Full Hostile Tender</a></em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">6 May 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Outright Bullish</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/invesco-office-opposes-starwood-hostile-offer-and-gets-a-distinctly-beige-knight" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51162" rel="noopener">Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight</a></em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">11 May 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Outright Bearish</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-bumps-terms-lowers-threshold-on-invesco-office" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51302" rel="noopener">Starwood Bumps Terms, Lowers Threshold on Invesco Office</a></em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">13 May 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Bullish</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/invesco-office-s-terrible-horrible-no-good-very-bad-day-changes-things" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51410" rel="noopener">Invesco Office's Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day... Changes Things</a> </em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">20 May 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Bullish</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/invesco-office-s-beige-knight-deemed-dirty-gray-by-markets-suddenly-looks-brighter-and-whiter" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51803" rel="noopener">Invesco Office's Beige Knight (Deemed Dirty Gray By Markets) Suddenly Looks Brighter and Whiter</a> </em></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>

Starwood on Friday responded to the proposed Tender Offer by Invesco Real Estate (Cayman) (hereafter "IRE") for Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) in a missive titled "Starwood Capital Group questions vague disclosure and low credibility of ‘intention’ to make counteroffer for Invesco Office JREIT."Starwood had some other comments too.How does one interpret this? Is Starwood right? The market Friday did not seem to think so. It went right through Starwood's bid and traded ~12% of shares out on a day where shares settled could not be tendered, setting up a likely extension by Starwood.More below the fold. 
The Insights to Date in the Starwood - Invesco Office REIT Tussle

Date
Direction
Title


5 Apr 2021
Bullish but...
Starwood Targets Japan's First Hostile REIT Full TOB for Invesco Office J-REIT


8 Apr 2021
Bearish but...
Starwood Hostile REIT Tender Launched


15 Apr 2021
Bullish but...
Invesco Office J-REIT Responds to Starwood's Hostile Offer


23 Apr 2021
Bearish but...
Starwood Rejection of Extension Means Full Hostile Tender


6 May 2021
Outright Bullish
Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight


11 May 2021
Outright Bearish
Starwood Bumps Terms, Lowers Threshold on Invesco Office


13 May 2021
Bullish
Invesco Office's Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day... Changes Things 


20 May 2021
Bullish
Invesco Office's Beige Knight (Deemed Dirty Gray By Markets) Suddenly Looks Brighter and Whiter 



Starwood Responds to Invesco Office's White Knight Proposal

<p>Today after the close, the fortunes of the unitholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-office-j-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7414:1" rel="noopener">Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP)</a> may have changed again. </p><p>After the close, the expected <a href="http://www.invesco-reit.co.jp/file/en-news-e385df2eaab717795737e126440f3660f6844ecf.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">amendment</a> of the Target Opinion Statement (AGAINST) of Invesco Office REIT vis-a-vis the Starwood revision was released. And there is a <a href="http://www.invesco-reit.co.jp/file/en-news-a4e2383f2cf69542a2ecebc3fb29d9a6c41a75b4.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cancellation</a> of a unitholders meeting which had as its record date 30 April. This may create some upset on the part of Starwood but it is procedural, and given the other news today, it is not an egregious offense against Starwood. </p><h3>The OTHER News After the Close - Invesco Real Estate Overbids</h3><p>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-office-j-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7414:1" rel="noopener">Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP)</a> and its manager <a href="http://www.invesco-reit.co.jp/file/en-news-10f6aa9ffc1f0251ddd0c2a2db1b217c1c2436ab.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> they had received a proposal for a Tender Offer bid by Invesco Real Estate (Cayman) for all the shares of Invesco Office J-REIT.</p><blockquote>
<p> Invesco Real Estate plans to commence the Tender Offer from early to mid- June, 2021, subject to certain conditions (or waiver by the Invesco Real Estate), with the tender offer period of 30 business days.</p>
<p>The tender offer price of the Tender Offer will be 22,500 yen per investment unit, representing a 15.33% premium to the closing unit price of the investment units of the Investment Corporation as of May 19, 2021 and a 3.45% premium to the tender offer price of the Starwood Tender Offer.</p>
</blockquote><p>So that's on. And there has been reason to be bullish. </p><p>Now there is more.</p><div><p>More below the fold. </p></div><hr><div><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 723.2px;"><h3>The Insights to Date in the Starwood - Invesco Office REIT Tussle</h3></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;"><strong>Date</strong></td>
<td style="width: 92px;"><strong>Direction</strong></td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><strong>Title</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">5 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Bullish but...</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-targets-japan-s-first-hostile-reit-full-tob-for-invesco-office-j-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49976" rel="noopener">Starwood Targets Japan's First Hostile REIT Full TOB for Invesco Office J-REIT</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">8 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Bearish but...</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-hostile-reit-tender-launched" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50112" rel="noopener">Starwood Hostile REIT Tender Launched</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">15 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Bullish but...</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/invesco-office-j-reit-responds-to-starwood-s-hostile-offer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50381" rel="noopener">Invesco Office J-REIT Responds to Starwood's Hostile Offer</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">23 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Bearish but...</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-rejection-of-extension-means-full-hostile-tender" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50641" rel="noopener">Starwood Rejection of Extension Means Full Hostile Tender</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">6 May 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Outright Bullish</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/invesco-office-opposes-starwood-hostile-offer-and-gets-a-distinctly-beige-knight" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51162" rel="noopener">Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">11 May 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Outright Bearish</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-bumps-terms-lowers-threshold-on-invesco-office" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51302" rel="noopener">Starwood Bumps Terms, Lowers Threshold on Invesco Office</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">13 May 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Bullish</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/invesco-office-s-terrible-horrible-no-good-very-bad-day-changes-things" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51410" rel="noopener">Invesco Office's Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day... Changes Things</a> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>

Today after the close, the fortunes of the unitholders of Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) may have changed again. After the close, the expected amendment of the Target Opinion Statement (AGAINST) of Invesco Office REIT vis-a-vis the Starwood revision was released. And there is a cancellation of a unitholders meeting which had as its record date 30 April. This may create some upset on the part of Starwood but it is procedural, and given the other news today, it is not an egregious offense against Starwood. The OTHER News After the Close - Invesco Real Estate OverbidsToday, Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) and its manager announced they had received a proposal for a Tender Offer bid by Invesco Real Estate (Cayman) for all the shares of Invesco Office J-REIT.
 Invesco Real Estate plans to commence the Tender Offer from early to mid- June, 2021, subject to certain conditions (or waiver by the Invesco Real Estate), with the tender offer period of 30 business days.
The tender offer price of the Tender Offer will be 22,500 yen per investment unit, representing a 15.33% premium to the closing unit price of the investment units of the Investment Corporation as of May 19, 2021 and a 3.45% premium to the tender offer price of the Starwood Tender Offer.
So that's on. And there has been reason to be bullish. Now there is more.More below the fold. 
The Insights to Date in the Starwood - Invesco Office REIT Tussle

Date
Direction
Title


5 Apr 2021
Bullish but...
Starwood Targets Japan's First Hostile REIT Full TOB for Invesco Office J-REIT


8 Apr 2021
Bearish but...
Starwood Hostile REIT Tender Launched


15 Apr 2021
Bullish but...
Invesco Office J-REIT Responds to Starwood's Hostile Offer


23 Apr 2021
Bearish but...
Starwood Rejection of Extension Means Full Hostile Tender


6 May 2021
Outright Bullish
Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight


11 May 2021
Outright Bearish
Starwood Bumps Terms, Lowers Threshold on Invesco Office


13 May 2021
Bullish

Invesco Office's Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day... Changes Things 



Invesco Office's Beige Knight (Deemed Dirty Gray By Markets) Suddenly Looks Brighter and Whiter

<p>On 5 April, Starwood Group announced it owned 5+% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-office-j-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7414:1" rel="noopener">Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP)</a> and would conduct a Tender Offer to take over the J-REIT. This was a first (hostile full takeover) in Japan. Invesco Office J-REIT objected, threatened possible legal action, asked for more time. Starwood said "no more time" so IOJ's official Target Statement said AGAINST and they asked holders to not tender and if they had already tendered, to withdraw their tender. And the REIT manager made a request of a "Requested Party" - Invesco Investments (Bermuda) Ltd, linked to the manager's ultimate parent, to buy shares on the market to thwart Starwood's effort.</p><p>Shares subsequently traded slightly through terms. </p><p>Then on 10 May quite late in the evening, Starwood raised its Tender Offer Price from ¥20,000/unit to ¥21,750. The shares, obviously, traded up near terms the following day. At the end of the following day, Invesco Office again asked investors not to tender. </p><div></div><div class="content-highlight">
<p> <strong>Today, the stock had a Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day. </strong></p>
<p>Shares fell from about ¥21,750 in the morning as low as ¥18,400, before rebounding. </p>
</div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/206/007/original/Screenshot+2021-05-13+at+7.20.12+PM.png?1620904830" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="206007"></figure><p></p></section><p>A news service which Reports on Deals reported on the fact that the Requested Party Invesco Investments (Bermuda) had purchased 5.66% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-office-j-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7414:1" rel="noopener">Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP)</a> as of yesterday.</p><p>Strangely, that news was out there after yesterday's close, and indeed shares started off weaker earlier today. And about half an hour after the ever-so-brief Report, whoever was selling started running out of bids, and it tipped over, falling 6% in an hour. Then almost 10% in the next 10+ minutes to a low of ¥18,400, when it was suspended <em>kehai</em> going back up. A lot of shares traded in the last 30 minutes at ¥19,200-20,100. </p><p>This now changes things. </p><p>More below the fold. </p><hr><div><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="width: 76.5714px;"><h3>The Insights to Date in the Starwood - Invesco Office REIT Tussle</h3></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.5714px;"><strong><em>Date</em></strong></td>
<td style="width: 627.429px;"><strong><em>Title</em></strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.5714px;">5 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 627.429px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-targets-japan-s-first-hostile-reit-full-tob-for-invesco-office-j-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49976" rel="noopener">Starwood Targets Japan's First Hostile REIT Full TOB for Invesco Office J-REIT</a></em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.5714px;">8 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 627.429px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-hostile-reit-tender-launched" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50112" rel="noopener">Starwood Hostile REIT Tender Launched</a></em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.5714px;">15 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 627.429px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/invesco-office-j-reit-responds-to-starwood-s-hostile-offer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50381" rel="noopener">Invesco Office J-REIT Responds to Starwood's Hostile Offer</a></em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.5714px;">23 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 627.429px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-rejection-of-extension-means-full-hostile-tender" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50641" rel="noopener">Starwood Rejection of Extension Means Full Hostile Tender</a></em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.5714px;">6 May 2021</td>
<td style="width: 627.429px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/invesco-office-opposes-starwood-hostile-offer-and-gets-a-distinctly-beige-knight" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51162" rel="noopener">Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight</a></em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.5714px;">11 May 2021</td>
<td style="width: 627.429px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-bumps-terms-lowers-threshold-on-invesco-office" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51302" rel="noopener">Starwood Bumps Terms, Lowers Threshold on Invesco Office</a></em></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>

On 5 April, Starwood Group announced it owned 5+% of Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) and would conduct a Tender Offer to take over the J-REIT. This was a first (hostile full takeover) in Japan. Invesco Office J-REIT objected, threatened possible legal action, asked for more time. Starwood said "no more time" so IOJ's official Target Statement said AGAINST and they asked holders to not tender and if they had already tendered, to withdraw their tender. And the REIT manager made a request of a "Requested Party" - Invesco Investments (Bermuda) Ltd, linked to the manager's ultimate parent, to buy shares on the market to thwart Starwood's effort.Shares subsequently traded slightly through terms. Then on 10 May quite late in the evening, Starwood raised its Tender Offer Price from ¥20,000/unit to ¥21,750. The shares, obviously, traded up near terms the following day. At the end of the following day, Invesco Office again asked investors not to tender. 
 Today, the stock had a Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day. 
Shares fell from about ¥21,750 in the morning as low as ¥18,400, before rebounding. 
A news service which Reports on Deals reported on the fact that the Requested Party Invesco Investments (Bermuda) had purchased 5.66% of Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) as of yesterday.Strangely, that news was out there after yesterday's close, and indeed shares started off weaker earlier today. And about half an hour after the ever-so-brief Report, whoever was selling started running out of bids, and it tipped over, falling 6% in an hour. Then almost 10% in the next 10+ minutes to a low of ¥18,400, when it was suspended kehai going back up. A lot of shares traded in the last 30 minutes at ¥19,200-20,100. This now changes things. More below the fold. 
The Insights to Date in the Starwood - Invesco Office REIT Tussle

Date
Title


5 Apr 2021
Starwood Targets Japan's First Hostile REIT Full TOB for Invesco Office J-REIT


8 Apr 2021
Starwood Hostile REIT Tender Launched


15 Apr 2021
Invesco Office J-REIT Responds to Starwood's Hostile Offer


23 Apr 2021
Starwood Rejection of Extension Means Full Hostile Tender


6 May 2021
Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight


11 May 2021
Starwood Bumps Terms, Lowers Threshold on Invesco Office



Invesco Office's Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day... Changes Things

<p>Now we are getting more interesting. </p><p>Yesterday 10 May, Starwood Capital Group and its bidding entity 101 LPS raised its bid from ¥20,000/unit to ¥21,750/unit - an 8.75% bump - and lowered the minimum threshold for tender success from 5,344,355 units to 4,341,133 units or from two-thirds plus one share to about 55.27%.</p><p>I suggested on the 6th in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/invesco-office-opposes-starwood-hostile-offer-and-gets-a-distinctly-beige-knight" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51162" rel="noopener">Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight</a> that it was in Starwood's interest to respond to Invesco's new tactic of having the parent buy shares and do so early on. First was to ensure Invesco had to newly decide to pay more, and second was to make it clear they were paying up. There was an added aspect of them being able to not extend the end of the Tender Offer if they revised by the 10th, which they did.</p><p><strong>This changes things for investors. </strong></p><p>More discussion below the fold.</p><hr><p><em>The insights in this series are:</em></p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="width: 76.5714px;"><h2>The Starwood - Invesco Office REIT Tussle</h2></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.5714px;"><strong>Date</strong></td>
<td style="width: 627.429px;"><strong>Title</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.5714px;">5 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 627.429px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-targets-japan-s-first-hostile-reit-full-tob-for-invesco-office-j-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49976" rel="noopener">Starwood Targets Japan's First Hostile REIT Full TOB for Invesco Office J-REIT</a></em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.5714px;">8 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 627.429px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-hostile-reit-tender-launched" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50112" rel="noopener">Starwood Hostile REIT Tender Launched</a> </em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.5714px;">15 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 627.429px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/invesco-office-j-reit-responds-to-starwood-s-hostile-offer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50381" rel="noopener">Invesco Office J-REIT Responds to Starwood's Hostile Offer</a> </em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.5714px;">23 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 627.429px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-rejection-of-extension-means-full-hostile-tender" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50641" rel="noopener">Starwood Rejection of Extension Means Full Hostile Tender</a> </em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.5714px;">6 May 2021</td>
<td style="width: 627.429px;"><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/invesco-office-opposes-starwood-hostile-offer-and-gets-a-distinctly-beige-knight" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51162" rel="noopener">Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight</a> </em></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>

Now we are getting more interesting. Yesterday 10 May, Starwood Capital Group and its bidding entity 101 LPS raised its bid from ¥20,000/unit to ¥21,750/unit - an 8.75% bump - and lowered the minimum threshold for tender success from 5,344,355 units to 4,341,133 units or from two-thirds plus one share to about 55.27%.I suggested on the 6th in Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight that it was in Starwood's interest to respond to Invesco's new tactic of having the parent buy shares and do so early on. First was to ensure Invesco had to newly decide to pay more, and second was to make it clear they were paying up. There was an added aspect of them being able to not extend the end of the Tender Offer if they revised by the 10th, which they did.This changes things for investors. More discussion below the fold.The insights in this series are:
The Starwood - Invesco Office REIT Tussle

Date
Title


5 Apr 2021
Starwood Targets Japan's First Hostile REIT Full TOB for Invesco Office J-REIT


8 Apr 2021
Starwood Hostile REIT Tender Launched 


15 Apr 2021
Invesco Office J-REIT Responds to Starwood's Hostile Offer 


23 Apr 2021
Starwood Rejection of Extension Means Full Hostile Tender 


6 May 2021
Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight 



Starwood Bumps Terms, Lowers Threshold on Invesco Office

Japan

Invesco Office J-Reit,Inc. is a real estate investment trust(J-REIT). The Compnay mainly invests in commercial and office building in metoropolitan area.

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Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP)

(Mostly) Asia M&A: May 2021 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in May was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~31% (78 deals).

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Starwood Responds to Invesco Office's White Knight Proposal

Invesco Real Estate ($80bn real estate AUM) proposes an overbid and Starwood decides it is not credible, suggesting Starwood's response is probably...

Travis Lundy

Invesco Office's Beige Knight (Deemed Dirty Gray By Markets) Suddenly Looks Brighter and Whiter

Invesco Office's Beige Knight Gets a New Coat of White Paint. The parent has proposed a new bid at JPY 22,500/share, 3.5% higher than Starwood's...

Travis Lundy

Invesco Office's Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day... Changes Things

Invesco Office had a bad day, falling 15% from the NEW Tender Offer Price to well below the old one. The short worked. But the fall changes things....

Travis Lundy

Starwood Bumps Terms, Lowers Threshold on Invesco Office

Starwood has raised their Tender Price. This is now +19.9% vs Peer-Adjusted Undisturbed, and substantially closes the gap vs "IOJ Asset Market...

Travis Lundy

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