European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since mid-May, share-price spreads have not shown a clear trend across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 7 widened, 1 remained at same level).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-May, share-price spreads have not shown a clear trend across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 7 widened, 1 remained at same level).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June‘24 Report

<ul>
<li>The Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos did not follow a clear trend during May. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.8% (vs. 49.1%); GBL, 42.9% (vs. 39%); Heineken Holding, 18.3% (vs. 17.3%); </li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 2.5% (vs. 4.7%); Investor B, 12% (vs. 8.3%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35.3% (vs. 41.1%). Rio DLC spread widened to 23% (vs. 22.5%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


The Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos did not follow a clear trend during May. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.8% (vs. 49.1%); GBL, 42.9% (vs. 39%); Heineken Holding, 18.3% (vs. 17.3%); 
Industrivärden C, 2.5% (vs. 4.7%); Investor B, 12% (vs. 8.3%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35.3% (vs. 41.1%). Rio DLC spread widened to 23% (vs. 22.5%).
What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May'24 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 7 widened). Views are unchanged. </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Danieli, Grifols (see section on the company), Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 7 widened). Views are unchanged. 
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Danieli, Grifols (see section on the company), Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May‘24 Report

<ul>
<li>The Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 49.1% (vs. 47.3%); GBL, 39% (vs. 38.1%); Heineken Holding, 17.3% (vs 16.7%); </li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 4.7% (vs. 1.4%); Investor B, 8.3% (vs. 6.1%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 41.1% (vs. 45.4%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.5% (vs. to 24.9%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


The Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 49.1% (vs. 47.3%); GBL, 39% (vs. 38.1%); Heineken Holding, 17.3% (vs 16.7%); 
Industrivärden C, 4.7% (vs. 1.4%); Investor B, 8.3% (vs. 6.1%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 41.1% (vs. 45.4%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.5% (vs. to 24.9%).
What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April'24 Report

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18</li>
<li>Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. </li>
<li>So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18
Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. 
So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Sweden

Investor AB is an industrial holding company. The Company owns significant shareholdings in major public multinational companies and conducts private equity activities in Europe, North America, and Asia. Investor takes an active ownership role in many of the companies it owns.

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Investor (INVEB SS)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June‘24 Report

Since mid-May, share-price spreads have not shown a clear trend across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May'24 Report

The Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos did not follow a clear trend during May. Half of them widened while the other half tightened.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May‘24 Report

Since mid-April, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 7...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April'24 Report

The Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

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