European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Holdco dispersion persists: GBL simplifies and strengthens liquidity yet trades at –30.5%; Industrivärden and Investor remain unusually tight; Heineken Holding stable in its post-Covid range.</li>
<li>Porsche SE’s ~30% discount aligns with “no-liability” scenarios, while Rio Tinto’s DLC premium stays structurally elevated, leaving convergence trades dependent on governance catalysts rather than statistical mean reversion.</li>
<li>Vivendi’s discount widened to 42% on legal timing noise; AMF logic unchanged. Optionality rebuilt, making Vivendi the most asymmetric setup in the current holdco universe.</li>
</ul>


Holdco dispersion persists: GBL simplifies and strengthens liquidity yet trades at –30.5%; Industrivärden and Investor remain unusually tight; Heineken Holding stable in its post-Covid range.
Porsche SE’s ~30% discount aligns with “no-liability” scenarios, while Rio Tinto’s DLC premium stays structurally elevated, leaving convergence trades dependent on governance catalysts rather than statistical mean reversion.
Vivendi’s discount widened to 42% on legal timing noise; AMF logic unchanged. Optionality rebuilt, making Vivendi the most asymmetric setup in the current holdco universe.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November 2025 Report

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koninklijke-vopak-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21144:1" rel="noopener">Koninklijke Vopak Nv (VPK NA)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shaftesbury-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22140:1" rel="noopener">Shaftesbury PLC (SHB LN)</a> are currently passing the entry rank of SXXP. Forecasted passive fund demands are $22m-$34m and 3-5 ADV. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indivior-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21996:1" rel="noopener">Indivior PLC (INDV LN)</a> is currently the only one below the exit rank of SXXP. Forecasted passive fund supply is $11.5m and 1.4 ADV.</li>
<li>'Most liquid stock' criterion can cause a 'switch' of share lines in the index as it happened with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chocoladefabriken-lindt-spru-d0c11ab4-21ec-491e-9b8f-44b06e078529" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24963:1" rel="noopener">Lindt (LISP SW)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chocoladefabriken-lindt-sprungli" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22420:1" rel="noopener">Lindt (LISN SW)</a> in September 2022. </li>
</ul>



Koninklijke Vopak Nv (VPK NA) &amp; Shaftesbury PLC (SHB LN) are currently passing the entry rank of SXXP. Forecasted passive fund demands are $22m-$34m and 3-5 ADV. 

Indivior PLC (INDV LN) is currently the only one below the exit rank of SXXP. Forecasted passive fund supply is $11.5m and 1.4 ADV.
'Most liquid stock' criterion can cause a 'switch' of share lines in the index as it happened with Lindt (LISP SW) and Lindt (LISN SW) in September 2022. 


STOXX 600: First September Forecasts for Europe and Eurozone

<ul>
<li>Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation).
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

<ul>
<li>Dual-Class spreads tightened in November, with convergence trades resurfacing as volatility falls and liquidity normalises.</li>
<li>MFE, Grifols and Henkel offer the cleanest A/B convergence setups into year-end.</li>
<li>Nordic anomalies persist: Handelsbanken’s extreme premium and SSAB’s micro-discount remain the strongest dispersion opportunities.</li>
</ul>


Dual-Class spreads tightened in November, with convergence trades resurfacing as volatility falls and liquidity normalises.
MFE, Grifols and Henkel offer the cleanest A/B convergence setups into year-end.
Nordic anomalies persist: Handelsbanken’s extreme premium and SSAB’s micro-discount remain the strongest dispersion opportunities.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November'25 Report

Sweden

Investor AB is an industrial holding company. The Company owns significant shareholdings in major public multinational companies and conducts private equity activities in Europe, North America, and Asia. Investor takes an active ownership role in many of the companies it owns.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Investor (INVEB SS)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November 2025 Report

Holdco discounts diverged in November: GBL strengthens its case, Investor stays rich, Porsche SE sits at structural levels, Vivendi’s setback...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX 600: First September Forecasts for Europe and Eurozone

Koninklijke Vopak & Shaftesbury PLC are currently the top 2 candidates for addition in SXXP while Indivior PLC is the main candidate for deletion.

Dimitris Ioannidis

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November'25 Report

Dual-class spreads tightened in November as liquidity improved. MFE, Grifols and Henkel lead convergence opportunities, while Nordic...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November 2025 Report

Holdco discounts diverged in November: GBL strengthens its case, Investor stays rich, Porsche SE sits at structural levels, Vivendi’s setback...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX 600: First September Forecasts for Europe and Eurozone

​Koninklijke Vopak & Shaftesbury PLC are currently the top 2 candidates for addition in SXXP while Indivior PLC is the main candidate for deletion.

Dimitris Ioannidis

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November'25 Report

Dual-class spreads tightened in November as liquidity improved. MFE, Grifols and Henkel lead convergence opportunities, while Nordic...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Koninklijke Vopak & Shaftesbury PLC are currently the top 2 candidates for addition in SXXP while Indivior PLC is the main candidate for deletion.