Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Iron ore broke out of its three-year band two weeks ago and, after a brief recovery, trended lower by 9% WoW. It is now within touching distance of 90 USD/ton. </li>
<li>Chinese steel margins showed no signs of improving, with the average mills losing 70-80 USD/ton. Iron ore inventories continued to climb at the ports, exceeding 150 million tons.</li>
<li>We would stay clear of iron ore names for the time being as we wait for iron ore to consolidate at some levels. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore broke out of its three-year band two weeks ago and, after a brief recovery, trended lower by 9% WoW. It is now within touching distance of 90 USD/ton. 
Chinese steel margins showed no signs of improving, with the average mills losing 70-80 USD/ton. Iron ore inventories continued to climb at the ports, exceeding 150 million tons.
We would stay clear of iron ore names for the time being as we wait for iron ore to consolidate at some levels. 


Iron Ore Tracker (9-Sep-2024): Short-Term Bearish Signals More Prominent

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Iron ore futures rose 5.3% last week but declined 3% on September 2nd, signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend.</li>
<li>Technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands suggest a short-term downtrend, with price struggling to break above the 21-day moving average.</li>
<li>Elevated historical volatility near a 4-month high indicates that market instability may persist, suggesting caution in trade setups.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore futures rose 5.3% last week but declined 3% on September 2nd, signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend.
Technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands suggest a short-term downtrend, with price struggling to break above the 21-day moving average.
Elevated historical volatility near a 4-month high indicates that market instability may persist, suggesting caution in trade setups.


[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/35] Price Recovery Stalls Amid Elevated Volatility and Downtrend Resumes

<ul>
<li>Despite sharp price moves, iron ore options activity was muted with a sharp decline in put volumes.</li>
<li>The DCE/SGX spread widened from 4.6% to 7.5% as DCE futures traded at a premium.</li>
<li>SGX Iron Ore options volume fell by 31.8% WoW, with increased call activity focused on September expiries at the 105 strike.</li>
</ul>


Despite sharp price moves, iron ore options activity was muted with a sharp decline in put volumes.
The DCE/SGX spread widened from 4.6% to 7.5% as DCE futures traded at a premium.
SGX Iron Ore options volume fell by 31.8% WoW, with increased call activity focused on September expiries at the 105 strike.


[IO Options Weekly 2024/35] Iron Ore Continues Rising But Demand Headwinds Persist

<ul>
<li>Iron ore futures surged 5.3% last week but fell 3% on September 2nd, reflecting uncertain price sentiment.</li>
<li>Chinese portside inventories rose by 3.4 million tons, reaching a two-year high, driven by high arrivals and reduced pick-up volumes.</li>
<li>Heading into peak consumption season in China, supply headwinds may drive sentiment rather than demand tailwinds.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore futures surged 5.3% last week but fell 3% on September 2nd, reflecting uncertain price sentiment.
Chinese portside inventories rose by 3.4 million tons, reaching a two-year high, driven by high arrivals and reduced pick-up volumes.
Heading into peak consumption season in China, supply headwinds may drive sentiment rather than demand tailwinds.


[IO Fundamentals Weekly 2024/35] Supply Headwinds Pressure IO Heading Into Peak Season

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> reported a revenue/profit number of 8%/15%, with profits 8% lower than our expectations because of higher depreciation. </li>
<li>The company guided a mid-point iron ore shipment of 195 million tons (Vs. 192 in FY24) and a capex of 3.2 bn USD in metals/500 mn USD in Green Energy.</li>
<li>Trading at 6.7x PE with a 10% dividend yield (trailing) with iron ore prices averaging 118 USD in FY24, the focus shifts to a scenario analysis for FY25. </li>
</ul>



Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) reported a revenue/profit number of 8%/15%, with profits 8% lower than our expectations because of higher depreciation. 
The company guided a mid-point iron ore shipment of 195 million tons (Vs. 192 in FY24) and a capex of 3.2 bn USD in metals/500 mn USD in Green Energy.
Trading at 6.7x PE with a 10% dividend yield (trailing) with iron ore prices averaging 118 USD in FY24, the focus shifts to a scenario analysis for FY25. 


Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): FY24 Slightly Below Expectations, Focus on Iron Ore Price for FY25

Australia

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

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Iron Ore (IRON ORE COMDTY)

Iron Ore Tracker (9-Sep-2024): Short-Term Bearish Signals More Prominent

With iron ore prices breaking below 95 USD/ton, we become more bearish in the short term. We track indicators like mill margins, inventories, and...

Sameer Taneja

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/35] Price Recovery Stalls Amid Elevated Volatility and Downtrend Resumes

Iron ore prices experienced a brief recovery but have resumed their downtrend as technical indicators signal further weakness. Fundamentals are...

Mint Finance

[IO Options Weekly 2024/35] Iron Ore Continues Rising But Demand Headwinds Persist

Last week, iron ore futures surged 5.3%, only to drop 3% on Monday. The DCE/SGX spread widened as Chinese futures gained a premium, and SGX options...

Mint Finance

[IO Fundamentals Weekly 2024/35] Supply Headwinds Pressure IO Heading Into Peak Season

Iron Ore portside inventories in China reach a two-year high as reduced pick-up volumes unable to match high arrivals. Demand remains mixed as...

Mint Finance

Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): FY24 Slightly Below Expectations, Focus on Iron Ore Price for FY25

We summarize the FY24 results of FMG AU ( Fortescue Metals Group ) and its conference call. We also provide a useful scenario analysis on dividend...

Sameer Taneja

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