Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Jan-Mar 2025 shipments for Australian miners <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">RIO AU</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP AU</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">FMG AU</a>  were sluggish, registering -9.3%,-4.3%, and 0.4% YoY, respectively, due to inclement weather.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a> shipments were comparatively better, up 3.6% YoY to 66.1 mn tons. The big four kept their annual production guidance intact. </li>
<li>Positive news came from Vales China clients, as blast furnace utilization passed 90%, and some mills are now making cash profits of 200 RMB/ton. </li>
</ul>


Jan-Mar 2025 shipments for Australian miners RIO AU, BHP AU, and FMG AU  were sluggish, registering -9.3%,-4.3%, and 0.4% YoY, respectively, due to inclement weather.

Vale (VALE US) shipments were comparatively better, up 3.6% YoY to 66.1 mn tons. The big four kept their annual production guidance intact. 
Positive news came from Vales China clients, as blast furnace utilization passed 90%, and some mills are now making cash profits of 200 RMB/ton. 


Gleanings From The Q1 CY25 Shipments Conference Calls Of Vale, Rio, BHP, and FMG

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices remain around $97/ton, down 0.5% WoW, staying within a long-term range of $95-$130/ton over the past four years, indicating sustained price stability at the lower end.</li>
<li>With weather conditions improving in Australia, we expect iron ore shipments to start increasing and China to import more than 100 million tons/month.  </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a>. The company recently presented at the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1r6Dq8xXDo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RIU Resources Round-up Conference in Sydney on 7 May 2025</a>. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices remain around $97/ton, down 0.5% WoW, staying within a long-term range of $95-$130/ton over the past four years, indicating sustained price stability at the lower end.
With weather conditions improving in Australia, we expect iron ore shipments to start increasing and China to import more than 100 million tons/month.  
We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU). The company recently presented at the RIU Resources Round-up Conference in Sydney on 7 May 2025. 


Iron Ore Tracker (12-May-2025): Looking for Green Shoots In Iron Ore

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Chinese officials unveiled a broad set of economic support actions, including rate reductions and substantial liquidity infusions, as part of intensified efforts to cushion the economy from U.S. trade tensions. </li>
<li>Top U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Switzerland from May 9–12 to ease trade tensions, boosting investor sentiment and driving iron ore futures to a near two-week high. </li>
<li>China's factory output contracted in April, with both the official NBS and Caixin PMI reports showing a decline in manufacturing activity amid weakening foreign demand.</li>
</ul>


Chinese officials unveiled a broad set of economic support actions, including rate reductions and substantial liquidity infusions, as part of intensified efforts to cushion the economy from U.S. trade tensions. 
Top U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Switzerland from May 9–12 to ease trade tensions, boosting investor sentiment and driving iron ore futures to a near two-week high. 
China's factory output contracted in April, with both the official NBS and Caixin PMI reports showing a decline in manufacturing activity amid weakening foreign demand.


[IO Fundamentals 2025/18] Policy Easing and Trade Diplomacy: China’s Coordinated Economic Push

<ul>
<li>SGX Iron Ore Futures fell 4.3% WoW to $95.85/ton, closing just above S2 support as bearish momentum strengthened</li>
<li>Prices are trading below all key moving averages, with a recent death cross and RSI at 38.17, indicating continued downside risk</li>
<li>Managed Money and Physicals turned net short, while total futures and options open interest rose 4.2% WoW, reflecting rising bearish positioning</li>
</ul>


SGX Iron Ore Futures fell 4.3% WoW to $95.85/ton, closing just above S2 support as bearish momentum strengthened
Prices are trading below all key moving averages, with a recent death cross and RSI at 38.17, indicating continued downside risk
Managed Money and Physicals turned net short, while total futures and options open interest rose 4.2% WoW, reflecting rising bearish positioning


[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/18]: Bearish Momentum Strengthens

<ul>
<li>PBoC holds the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%; both historic lows as trade tensions persist. </li>
<li>China’s Politburo vows faster bond issuance, lose monetary policy, and job protection measures to counter persistent economic challenges.</li>
<li>Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports increased in late April, ending a three-week decline, signaling softening near-term demand.</li>
</ul>


PBoC holds the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%; both historic lows as trade tensions persist. 
China’s Politburo vows faster bond issuance, lose monetary policy, and job protection measures to counter persistent economic challenges.
Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports increased in late April, ending a three-week decline, signaling softening near-term demand.


[IO Fundamentals 2025/17] Stimulus Buzz Fuels Recovery and IO Inventories Expand

Australia

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

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Iron Ore (IRON ORE COMDTY)

Gleanings From The Q1 CY25 Shipments Conference Calls Of Vale, Rio, BHP, and FMG

We update the operational/shipment performance of the iron ore majors and outline the importance of tracking their numbers.

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (12-May-2025): Looking for Green Shoots In Iron Ore

Iron ore has been rangebound at $95-$100/ton since “Liberation Day.” Could China's stimulus boost demand, especially since China accounts for over...

Sameer Taneja

[IO Fundamentals 2025/18] Policy Easing and Trade Diplomacy: China’s Coordinated Economic Push

As U.S. trade tensions deepen, China’s synchronized monetary, diplomatic, and industrial efforts aim to stabilize markets and buffer slowing...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/18]: Bearish Momentum Strengthens

Intensifying downside momentum in IO, underscored by weakening technical indicators, shifting speculative positioning, and a macro landscape...

Mint Finance

[IO Fundamentals 2025/17] Stimulus Buzz Fuels Recovery and IO Inventories Expand

Amid mounting trade tensions and a challenging external environment, China’s policymakers are reinforcing monetary support and job protections. IO...

Mint Finance

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