Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>11%YoY growth in GFCF enabled real GDP to grow 7.6% YoY in Q2FY24, well ahead of the 6.8% consensus. Manufacturing, construction, utilities and mining grew over 10%YoY in Jul-Sep'23. </li>
<li>Services should grow over 8%YoY in H2FY24 (in line with 26-year average). Manufacturing should grow 9%YoY, delivering 8%+ growth in H2FY24. Reform and productivity enable 8% growth in FY25. </li>
<li>The 12mma of the fiscal deficit fell to 5.8% of GDP in Oct'23, and should fall to 5.5% by Mar'24. This will crowd-in private investment, generating virtuous circle of growth.</li>
</ul>


11%YoY growth in GFCF enabled real GDP to grow 7.6% YoY in Q2FY24, well ahead of the 6.8% consensus. Manufacturing, construction, utilities and mining grew over 10%YoY in Jul-Sep'23. 
Services should grow over 8%YoY in H2FY24 (in line with 26-year average). Manufacturing should grow 9%YoY, delivering 8%+ growth in H2FY24. Reform and productivity enable 8% growth in FY25. 
The 12mma of the fiscal deficit fell to 5.8% of GDP in Oct'23, and should fall to 5.5% by Mar'24. This will crowd-in private investment, generating virtuous circle of growth.


India: Real GDP to Sustain 8%+ YoY Growth over the Next 18 Months

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank (AXSB IN)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN)</a> price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) and short Axis Bank (AXSB IN) targets a 5% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Axis Bank (AXSB IN) vs. ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Going long ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) and short Axis Bank (AXSB IN) targets a 5% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Long ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) Vs. Short Axis Bank (AXSB IN): Quant-Driven Pair Trade in Indian Banks

<ul>
<li>Four stock pairs have triggered new mean-reversion trade signals, with price ratios deviating more than two standard deviations from their one-year averages.</li>
<li>Two of the opportunities involve companies in the same industry and two pairs involve companies in different industries within the same sector.</li>
<li>Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, outlining opportunities and key risk considerations.</li>
</ul>


Four stock pairs have triggered new mean-reversion trade signals, with price ratios deviating more than two standard deviations from their one-year averages.
Two of the opportunities involve companies in the same industry and two pairs involve companies in different industries within the same sector.
Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, outlining opportunities and key risk considerations.


Four New Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities in Asia-Pac

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

<ul>
<li>China: Monetary &amp; Trade Indicators Strengthen: September data show broad-based monetary growth</li>
<li>Korea: Early Signs of Trade Softness: The first 10 days of October show exports down 15% YoY, imports down 22.8%.</li>
<li>India: Inflation Trends Favor Rate Cuts: Wholesale prices up just 0.1% YoY in September — a stark contrast to &gt;10% in 2022 and flat in 2023.</li>
</ul>


China: Monetary &amp; Trade Indicators Strengthen: September data show broad-based monetary growth
Korea: Early Signs of Trade Softness: The first 10 days of October show exports down 15% YoY, imports down 22.8%.
India: Inflation Trends Favor Rate Cuts: Wholesale prices up just 0.1% YoY in September — a stark contrast to &gt;10% in 2022 and flat in 2023.


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 17 October 2025

<ul>
<li>Spurred by 50bp of rate cuts in Feb-Apr'25, real GDP accelerated to 7.8%YoY in Q1FY26, with GFCF rebounding to 7.8%YoY growth. On the production side, services grew a stellar 9.3%YoY. </li>
<li>The additional 50bp cut in Jun'25 will boost growth in Q2FY26, while an effective 2ppYoY reduction in GST rates will spur consumption and sharply reduce H2FY26 CPI inflation to 1%.</li>
<li>Over the Oct'25-Sep'26 period, the 100bp cut in repo rate and CRR, and 2ppYoY decline in GST, is likely to provide a 2pp kicker to RGDP, enabling 9% growth. </li>
</ul>


Spurred by 50bp of rate cuts in Feb-Apr'25, real GDP accelerated to 7.8%YoY in Q1FY26, with GFCF rebounding to 7.8%YoY growth. On the production side, services grew a stellar 9.3%YoY. 
The additional 50bp cut in Jun'25 will boost growth in Q2FY26, while an effective 2ppYoY reduction in GST rates will spur consumption and sharply reduce H2FY26 CPI inflation to 1%.
Over the Oct'25-Sep'26 period, the 100bp cut in repo rate and CRR, and 2ppYoY decline in GST, is likely to provide a 2pp kicker to RGDP, enabling 9% growth. 


India: After 7.8%YoY in Q1, Monetary & Fiscal Stimulus to Ensure 9% RGDP Growth

India

iShares MSCI India Index ETF is an exchange-traded fund registered in Singapore. The Fund seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, closely correspond to the performance of the MSCI India Index. The Fund invests all or substantially all of its assets in shares comprising the MSCI India Index in substantially the same weightings as constituted in the underlying index.

iShares MSCI India Index ETF (INDIA SP)

India: Real GDP to Sustain 8%+ YoY Growth over the Next 18 Months

India stays world's fastest-growing economy with 7.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1FY24. Exports & GFCF will enable >8%YoY growth in H2. Labour reform to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Long ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) Vs. Short Axis Bank (AXSB IN): Quant-Driven Pair Trade in Indian Banks

Pair trade with a 5% target-return amid significant deviation of the price ratio between Axis Bank vs. ICICI Bank. Opportunity for quantitative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Four New Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities in Asia-Pac

Three Aussie and one Indian pair show mean-reversion pair trade signals in Financials, Industrials, and Materials. Ideal for quantitative traders...

Gaudenz Schneider

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 17 October 2025

China: Monetary & Trade Indicators Strengthen: September data show broad-based monetary growth Korea: Early Signs of Trade Softness: The first...

Dr. Jim Walker

India: After 7.8%YoY in Q1, Monetary & Fiscal Stimulus to Ensure 9% RGDP Growth

100bp rate and CRR cuts and 2ppYoY GST reduction expected to drive strong economic growth in India, with RGDP accelerating from 7.8% YoY in Q1FY26...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Real GDP to Sustain 8%+ YoY Growth over the Next 18 Months

India stays world's fastest-growing economy with 7.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1FY24. Exports & GFCF will enable >8%YoY growth in H2. Labour reform to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Long ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) Vs. Short Axis Bank (AXSB IN): Quant-Driven Pair Trade in Indian Banks

​Pair trade with a 5% target-return amid significant deviation of the price ratio between Axis Bank vs. ICICI Bank. Opportunity for quantitative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Four New Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities in Asia-Pac

Three Aussie and one Indian pair show mean-reversion pair trade signals in Financials, Industrials, and Materials. Ideal for quantitative traders...

Gaudenz Schneider

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 17 October 2025

China: Monetary & Trade Indicators Strengthen: September data show broad-based monetary growth Korea: Early Signs of Trade Softness: The first...

Dr. Jim Walker

India: After 7.8%YoY in Q1, Monetary & Fiscal Stimulus to Ensure 9% RGDP Growth

​100bp rate and CRR cuts and 2ppYoY GST reduction expected to drive strong economic growth in India, with RGDP accelerating from 7.8% YoY in Q1FY26...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Pair trade with a 5% target-return amid significant deviation of the price ratio between Axis Bank vs. ICICI Bank. Opportunity for quantitative...

100bp rate and CRR cuts and 2ppYoY GST reduction expected to drive strong economic growth in India, with RGDP accelerating from 7.8% YoY in Q1FY26...