Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>'Stealth QE’ from the US Fed set to continue, but US Treasury is the ‘back seat driver’</li>
<li>Treasury wrestling to cap near-term coupon supply to avoid rising yields, but Fed willing to let regional banks’ liquidity levels rise</li>
<li>Rising public debt is the major bogey: pushed up by demographics and monetized by Fed and Treasury. 10-year yields will re-test 5¼%</li>
</ul>


'Stealth QE’ from the US Fed set to continue, but US Treasury is the ‘back seat driver’
Treasury wrestling to cap near-term coupon supply to avoid rising yields, but Fed willing to let regional banks’ liquidity levels rise
Rising public debt is the major bogey: pushed up by demographics and monetized by Fed and Treasury. 10-year yields will re-test 5¼%


A ‘Back Seat’ Bond Yield Driver: US Treasury Is Forcing The Fed To End QT. US Yields To Re-Test 5¼%?

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>The Boj, the Fed, and the ECB all tightened rates this week - with different outcomes</li>
<li>Tightening liquidity globally, but still no signs of a major top</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
The Boj, the Fed, and the ECB all tightened rates this week - with different outcomes
Tightening liquidity globally, but still no signs of a major top


Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM, Dantes Outlook

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM

Dantes Outlook

We invest over a full market cycle, using multi-asset portfolios tailored to each global client, from individuals to family offices.

Built to Endure

<ul>
<li>Global equities and commodities contributed to gains throughout our portfolio suite, driven by positive selection effects.</li>
<li>Aggressive strategies continue to outperform their respective benchmarks YTD, especially as tech and crypto stabilize.</li>
<li>Positioning carries over into September, maintaining an underweight to bonds and overweights to global stocks and commodities.</li>
</ul>


Global equities and commodities contributed to gains throughout our portfolio suite, driven by positive selection effects.
Aggressive strategies continue to outperform their respective benchmarks YTD, especially as tech and crypto stabilize.
Positioning carries over into September, maintaining an underweight to bonds and overweights to global stocks and commodities.


Portfolio Update: Selective in Global Stocks, Commodities, Underweight Bonds

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Warsh's "hawkishness" provides an opportunity to pick up precious metals and commodities</li>
<li>The Chinese platforms follow their Western counterparts in the raise and spend game</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Warsh's "hawkishness" provides an opportunity to pick up precious metals and commodities
The Chinese platforms follow their Western counterparts in the raise and spend game


Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>PBOC’s declining holdings of US Treasuries is often equated with the de-dollarisation of the Chinese economy.  Less known is that USD assets remain substantial and systemically embedded in Chinese banks</li>
<li>Chinese data shows their domestic banks are increasingly net long USD, with positions expanding alongside weaker domestic opportunities—especially from the property downturn—reinforcing demand for dollar assets</li>
<li>A forward-adjusted FX proxy shows RMB pressures remain driven by dollar flows, suggesting de-dollarisation narratives are overstated and China’s system still responds primarily to USD liquidity conditions</li>
</ul>


PBOC’s declining holdings of US Treasuries is often equated with the de-dollarisation of the Chinese economy.  Less known is that USD assets remain substantial and systemically embedded in Chinese banks
Chinese data shows their domestic banks are increasingly net long USD, with positions expanding alongside weaker domestic opportunities—especially from the property downturn—reinforcing demand for dollar assets
A forward-adjusted FX proxy shows RMB pressures remain driven by dollar flows, suggesting de-dollarisation narratives are overstated and China’s system still responds primarily to USD liquidity conditions


From the River to the Reservoir to the Lake: China's De-Dollarisation Story

United States

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years. 

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

A ‘Back Seat’ Bond Yield Driver: US Treasury Is Forcing The Fed To End QT. US Yields To Re-Test 5¼%?

The bottom line is that US 10-yields will re-test 5¼%, Investors face a World characterised by the monetization of mandatory spending demands (MMS).

Michael J. Howell

Overview #78 – Not Out of the Woods

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Central Bank tightening, Iran taunting the US over rate hikes and a...

Rikki Malik

Portfolio Update: Selective in Global Stocks, Commodities, Underweight Bonds

Breakdown of our global multi-asset portfolios with performance and positioning. We're overweight stocks and commodities and underweight bonds,...

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Overview #75 – King Canute

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at Warsh's "hawkish" speecha nd why it changes nothing

Rikki Malik

From the River to the Reservoir to the Lake: China's De-Dollarisation Story

While PBOC holdings of US Treasuries have declined, China's domestic banks' holdings of US dollar assets remain robust. With a weak property...

Kok Peng Chan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A ‘Back Seat’ Bond Yield Driver: US Treasury Is Forcing The Fed To End QT. US Yields To Re-Test 5¼%?

The bottom line is that US 10-yields will re-test 5¼%, Investors face a World characterised by the monetization of mandatory spending demands (MMS).

Michael J. Howell

Overview #78 – Not Out of the Woods

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Central Bank tightening, Iran taunting the US over rate hikes and a...

Rikki Malik

Portfolio Update: Selective in Global Stocks, Commodities, Underweight Bonds

Breakdown of our global multi-asset portfolios with performance and positioning. We're overweight stocks and commodities and underweight bonds,...

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Overview #75 – King Canute

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at Warsh's "hawkish" speecha nd why it changes nothing

Rikki Malik

From the River to the Reservoir to the Lake: China's De-Dollarisation Story

​While PBOC holdings of US Treasuries have declined, China's domestic banks' holdings of US dollar assets remain robust. With a weak property...

Kok Peng Chan

While PBOC holdings of US Treasuries have declined, China's domestic banks' holdings of US dollar assets remain robust. With a weak property...