Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin has been selling off since early October 2025 and reached a -35% loss around November 20, then bounced back, the rally is currently ongoing.</li>
<li>Our focus is always short-term and in this insight we will try to analyze how far the current BTC-USD spot rally can go before a new sell-off begins.</li>
<li>The alternate hypothesis is that the current downturn is merely a sharp, tactical correction within a larger secular bull market. Under this interpretation, the pullback could be a buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin has been selling off since early October 2025 and reached a -35% loss around November 20, then bounced back, the rally is currently ongoing.
Our focus is always short-term and in this insight we will try to analyze how far the current BTC-USD spot rally can go before a new sell-off begins.
The alternate hypothesis is that the current downturn is merely a sharp, tactical correction within a larger secular bull market. Under this interpretation, the pullback could be a buying opportunity.


Bitcoin Tactical Outlook After The -35% Drop

Independent in-depth research from Finimize, Finimize

Finimize Research

Independent in-depth research from Finimize

Finimize

Finimize is the #1 information platform for modern investors. We empower people to become smarter investors with bitesize insights from world-class analysts. 1 million+ strong community, 250 partners.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Technical analysis can help you keep your zen as it cuts through the noise by providing a set of rules on when to buy, sell, or just sit tight.</li>
<li>There are many technical indicators, but using both the simple moving average and the moving average convergence divergence can tell you most of what you need to know</li>
<li>Here’s how the two indicators work, what makes them so effective when using them together, and a look at a few major stock ETFs,  gold, bitcoin, and the Mag 7.</li>
</ul>


Technical analysis can help you keep your zen as it cuts through the noise by providing a set of rules on when to buy, sell, or just sit tight.
There are many technical indicators, but using both the simple moving average and the moving average convergence divergence can tell you most of what you need to know
Here’s how the two indicators work, what makes them so effective when using them together, and a look at a few major stock ETFs,  gold, bitcoin, and the Mag 7.


Two Technical Indicators, And The Top Trades They’re Pointing To Now

CME Micro Bitcoin Futures / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has lost around 52% of its value since the peak at 125k in the end of September 2025 to the 60k bottom last week. Now trading at 69k. </li>
<li>The latest leg of this sell off may be some sort of capitulation, our WEEKLY model is showing that BTCUSD spot has reached extremely oversold levels.</li>
<li>This insight is for those interested in adding a speculative asset to their portfolio, maybe via <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cme-micro-bitcoin-futures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35354:1" rel="noopener">CME Micro Bitcoin Futures</a> or Bitcoin ETFs.</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has lost around 52% of its value since the peak at 125k in the end of September 2025 to the 60k bottom last week. Now trading at 69k. 
The latest leg of this sell off may be some sort of capitulation, our WEEKLY model is showing that BTCUSD spot has reached extremely oversold levels.
This insight is for those interested in adding a speculative asset to their portfolio, maybe via CME Micro Bitcoin Futures or Bitcoin ETFs.


Bitcoin Tactical View: The Bottom Is Near, BUY Opportunity?

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>This follow-up revisits Buy the Dip by testing calendar effects and ETF fund flows to distinguish price outcomes from actual investor behaviour across different market regimes.</li>
<li>ETF flow analysis provides a clearer window into behaviour, revealing how investors allocate capital during rising, falling, and transitional markets.</li>
<li>Comparing ETFs highlights that Buy the Dip cannot be universally applied and depends heavily on asset-specific dynamics</li>
</ul>


This follow-up revisits Buy the Dip by testing calendar effects and ETF fund flows to distinguish price outcomes from actual investor behaviour across different market regimes.
ETF flow analysis provides a clearer window into behaviour, revealing how investors allocate capital during rising, falling, and transitional markets.
Comparing ETFs highlights that Buy the Dip cannot be universally applied and depends heavily on asset-specific dynamics


Buy the Dip Part 2: What Gold, Bitcoin and the SP500 Reveal About Investor Behaviour

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strategy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Strategy (MSTR US)</strong></a>'s market cap has for near-on five years, traded at a premium to its bitcoin holdings. </li>
<li>The backbone of Strategy's levered strategy is issue new shares or debt, acquire more bitcoins, which in turn, boost the share price. Rinse and repeat. Until the music stops.</li>
<li>That market cap is now at its widest discount in five years. And chairman Michael Saylor scandalously mooted the company <em>may</em> sell some bitcoins IF the discount persists.</li>
</ul>



Strategy (MSTR US)'s market cap has for near-on five years, traded at a premium to its bitcoin holdings. 
The backbone of Strategy's levered strategy is issue new shares or debt, acquire more bitcoins, which in turn, boost the share price. Rinse and repeat. Until the music stops.
That market cap is now at its widest discount in five years. And chairman Michael Saylor scandalously mooted the company may sell some bitcoins IF the discount persists.


Strategy (MSTR US)'s Bitcoin Premium Evaporates. And Then Some

United States

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is an exchange-traded fund domiciled in the USA. The investment objective is to reflect the performance of spot bitcoin.

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IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT US)

Bitcoin Tactical Outlook After The -35% Drop

Bitcoin experienced a -35% loss in Oct-Nov 2025 (it's currently in a rebound rally). We try to determine how long the current uptrend can continue...

Nico Rosti

Two Technical Indicators, And The Top Trades They’re Pointing To Now

Technical analysis can help you keep your zen when markets are volatile and unpredictable. Here's an update on the main ETFs, bitcoin, gold, and...

Finimize Research

Bitcoin Tactical View: The Bottom Is Near, BUY Opportunity?

Bitcoin dropped -52% from 125k (peak) to 60k last week, now trading at 69k. The sell-off may be a capitulation, BTCUSD reached extremely oversold...

Nico Rosti

Buy the Dip Part 2: What Gold, Bitcoin and the SP500 Reveal About Investor Behaviour

ETF flow analysis provides a clearer window into behaviour, revealing how investors allocate capital during rising, falling, and transitional markets.

John Ley

Strategy (MSTR US)'s Bitcoin Premium Evaporates. And Then Some

At a wide premium, Strategy was arguably a short. That was my prior (tentative) call. I've got no ax right here. If you're a bitcoin fan, buy ETFs...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bitcoin Tactical Outlook After The -35% Drop

​Bitcoin experienced a -35% loss in Oct-Nov 2025 (it's currently in a rebound rally). We try to determine how long the current uptrend can continue...

Nico Rosti

Two Technical Indicators, And The Top Trades They’re Pointing To Now

Technical analysis can help you keep your zen when markets are volatile and unpredictable. Here's an update on the main ETFs, bitcoin, gold, and...

Finimize Research

Bitcoin Tactical View: The Bottom Is Near, BUY Opportunity?

​Bitcoin dropped -52% from 125k (peak) to 60k last week, now trading at 69k. The sell-off may be a capitulation, BTCUSD reached extremely oversold...

Nico Rosti

Buy the Dip Part 2: What Gold, Bitcoin and the SP500 Reveal About Investor Behaviour

ETF flow analysis provides a clearer window into behaviour, revealing how investors allocate capital during rising, falling, and transitional markets.

John Ley

Strategy (MSTR US)'s Bitcoin Premium Evaporates. And Then Some

At a wide premium, Strategy was arguably a short. That was my prior (tentative) call. I've got no ax right here. If you're a bitcoin fan, buy ETFs...

David Blennerhassett

Bitcoin experienced a -35% loss in Oct-Nov 2025 (it's currently in a rebound rally). We try to determine how long the current uptrend can continue...

Bitcoin dropped -52% from 125k (peak) to 60k last week, now trading at 69k. The sell-off may be a capitulation, BTCUSD reached extremely oversold...