Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The 'trade recession' of 2023 is over, and the OECD CLI suggests global trade should grow 4.5% this year, after just 0.4% growth in 2023 (akin to global trade recession). </li>
<li>Despite a hot job market (unemployment rate below NAIRU for 3 years), record illegal and legal immigration (and their higher working-age proportion) are keeping US wage growth relatively in check. </li>
<li>MoM gains in core PCE were lower than core CPI in Feb'24, and likely will be in Mar'24 also, allowing a glide to lower core-PCE inflation and Jul'24 rate cut. </li>
</ul>


The 'trade recession' of 2023 is over, and the OECD CLI suggests global trade should grow 4.5% this year, after just 0.4% growth in 2023 (akin to global trade recession). 
Despite a hot job market (unemployment rate below NAIRU for 3 years), record illegal and legal immigration (and their higher working-age proportion) are keeping US wage growth relatively in check. 
MoM gains in core PCE were lower than core CPI in Feb'24, and likely will be in Mar'24 also, allowing a glide to lower core-PCE inflation and Jul'24 rate cut. 


US Benign This Year: Trade Recession Over, but Rates Still Likely to Decline

<ul>
<li>The worst case scenario (of tit-for-tat attacks on energy infrastructure) has abated for the week ahead. Pezeshkian-Trump deal via intermediaries will be fiendishly difficult to implement as IRGC/Basij will resist. </li>
<li>Despite decapitation of Iran's leadership, IRGC/Basij's fight persists, like Iraq's Ba'athists peopling Iraq's Sunni militias 2003-13. Israel has forced Iran's retreat from Syria-Lebanon-Gaza; reformist Azeri-Kurd Pezeshkian could countenance regime change. </li>
<li>Iran's intransigent forces won't capitulate without gaining an end to sanctions. US-Israel will demand a final end to Iran's nuclear-bomb capability. There's many a slip 'twixt cup&amp;lip. Stay cautious. </li>
</ul>


The worst case scenario (of tit-for-tat attacks on energy infrastructure) has abated for the week ahead. Pezeshkian-Trump deal via intermediaries will be fiendishly difficult to implement as IRGC/Basij will resist. 
Despite decapitation of Iran's leadership, IRGC/Basij's fight persists, like Iraq's Ba'athists peopling Iraq's Sunni militias 2003-13. Israel has forced Iran's retreat from Syria-Lebanon-Gaza; reformist Azeri-Kurd Pezeshkian could countenance regime change. 
Iran's intransigent forces won't capitulate without gaining an end to sanctions. US-Israel will demand a final end to Iran's nuclear-bomb capability. There's many a slip 'twixt cup&amp;lip. Stay cautious. 


US: Iran War Isn't About to End Despite the Improved Atmospherics from Trump

<ul>
<li>Trump is likely to win a substantial victory in the Iowa caucuses, with the real contest being for second place between Haley and DeSantis, with the latter banking on Iowa.</li>
<li>In the New Hampshire primary, Haley has closed the gap with Trump, to near a dead-heat with Christie's withdrawal. A post-Iowa withdrawal by DeSantis would mean "Advantage Haley' in NH. </li>
<li>Haley will likely win at home (South Carolina), with that momentum reducing Trump's huge organizational advantage on Super Tuesday. A 2-horse GOP race is market-positive, promising a less chaotic outcome.  </li>
</ul>


Trump is likely to win a substantial victory in the Iowa caucuses, with the real contest being for second place between Haley and DeSantis, with the latter banking on Iowa.
In the New Hampshire primary, Haley has closed the gap with Trump, to near a dead-heat with Christie's withdrawal. A post-Iowa withdrawal by DeSantis would mean "Advantage Haley' in NH. 
Haley will likely win at home (South Carolina), with that momentum reducing Trump's huge organizational advantage on Super Tuesday. A 2-horse GOP race is market-positive, promising a less chaotic outcome.  


US: Haley Leads Biden by 8pp; Iowa Could Make It a Trump-Haley GOP Contest

<ul>
<li>'Bidenomics' investment subsidies aided the 7.7%QoQsaar growth in business investment in Q2CY23, delaying the onset of recession. Policy rate to stay near 5.5% until Q2CY24, thereby restraining growth until then.</li>
<li>ECB and BoE face less pressure to raise rates amid easing headline inflation, so yield differentials will strengthen USD; the latter will be a drag on net exports in H2CY23.</li>
<li>The spending restraints agreed in May'23 kick in from Oct'23, and will be a drag on aggregate demand from Q4CY23, the quarter a mild recession is likely to begin. </li>
</ul>


'Bidenomics' investment subsidies aided the 7.7%QoQsaar growth in business investment in Q2CY23, delaying the onset of recession. Policy rate to stay near 5.5% until Q2CY24, thereby restraining growth until then.
ECB and BoE face less pressure to raise rates amid easing headline inflation, so yield differentials will strengthen USD; the latter will be a drag on net exports in H2CY23.
The spending restraints agreed in May'23 kick in from Oct'23, and will be a drag on aggregate demand from Q4CY23, the quarter a mild recession is likely to begin. 


'Bidenomics' Delays Recession, but USD Rebound & Fiscal Reins Are Tipping Points

<ul>
<li>China's share of US imports is down to a 16-year low of 15.1% in the year to May'23, from a peak of 21.77% five years ago. Trump's tariffs worked. </li>
<li>ASEAN was the main loser from China's market-share gains in the US, and is now (alongwith India) among the major gainers from China's losses in US market share.  </li>
<li>China's bilateral trade surplus with the US has moderated only slightly, so it remains a live political issue in the US. China is likely to keep losing US market share. </li>
</ul>


China's share of US imports is down to a 16-year low of 15.1% in the year to May'23, from a peak of 21.77% five years ago. Trump's tariffs worked. 
ASEAN was the main loser from China's market-share gains in the US, and is now (alongwith India) among the major gainers from China's losses in US market share.  
China's bilateral trade surplus with the US has moderated only slightly, so it remains a live political issue in the US. China is likely to keep losing US market share. 


Trump's Trade War Revisited: Tariffs Did Reduce China's Bilateral Surplus with US

United States

iShares Dow Jones U.S. ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund's objective seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Index.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

iShares Dow Jones (IYY US)

US Benign This Year: Trade Recession Over, but Rates Still Likely to Decline

Global trade volume grew 0.4% in 2023, but lead indicators suggest a strong 2024 recovery. Benign MoM rises in core PCE should enable YoY inflation...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: Iran War Isn't About to End Despite the Improved Atmospherics from Trump

Pezeshkian-Trump deal via intermediaries is tough, as IRGC/Basij resistance persists despite Iran's decapitated leadership. US-Israel want demise...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: Haley Leads Biden by 8pp; Iowa Could Make It a Trump-Haley GOP Contest

DeSantis bet the bank on Iowa. If Haley beats him to 2nd there, he's likely to withdraw. Haley then will likely beat Trump in NH & SC, reducing...

Prasenjit K. Basu

'Bidenomics' Delays Recession, but USD Rebound & Fiscal Reins Are Tipping Points

US averts recession before Q4CY23, as Bidenomics is buoying investment. Strong USD helped in H1 but will be a drag in H2CY23. Fiscal spending reins...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Trump's Trade War Revisited: Tariffs Did Reduce China's Bilateral Surplus with US

China's share of US imports declined from 21.8% in Mar'18 to 15.1% in May'23. ASEAN & India are gainers from this. The still-large bilateral trade...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)