Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>Support at $152.35-$153.70 on ACWI-US held, and we discussed last week- as long as this support holds, the multi-month consolidation appears healthy as ACWI-US works off excesses from April-May gains.</li>
<li>ACWI-US now displays a clean 2-month base breakout, MSCI EM (EEM-US) is reversing its 1+ month downtrend, and MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) displays a 5.5+ month base breakout.</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.
Support at $152.35-$153.70 on ACWI-US held, and we discussed last week- as long as this support holds, the multi-month consolidation appears healthy as ACWI-US works off excesses from April-May gains.
ACWI-US now displays a clean 2-month base breakout, MSCI EM (EEM-US) is reversing its 1+ month downtrend, and MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) displays a 5.5+ month base breakout.


Time to Buy Global Tech Stocks (Lenovo, SAP); Metals/Miners Also in Focus; MSCI ACWI Clean Breakout

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We also upgraded our near-term outlook to bullish on MSCI ACWI in our April 23, 2026 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>Remain overweight Technology, our primary focus every single week since April 16. It's getting hard to find names near buy points. Elsewhere, we highlight opportunities within Discretionary, Industrials, and Transportation</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).
We also upgraded our near-term outlook to bullish on MSCI ACWI in our April 23, 2026 Int’l Compass.
Remain overweight Technology, our primary focus every single week since April 16. It's getting hard to find names near buy points. Elsewhere, we highlight opportunities within Discretionary, Industrials, and Transportation


Lockout Rally Continues; Yet Another Bullish Gap on ACWI-US; Crude Oil Top in Place

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Global portfolios are increasingly concentrated, with just 7 stocks driving ~15% of total weight — reinforcing a shared, high-conviction core across managers</li>
<li>Despite this, ~47% of capital sits in stocks owned by &lt;15% of funds — the long tail remains the key source of differentiation</li>
<li>The middle cohort is shrinking, shifting portfolios toward a barbell structure — aligned at the top, but differentiated through selective conviction deeper in the portfolio.</li>
</ul>


Global portfolios are increasingly concentrated, with just 7 stocks driving ~15% of total weight — reinforcing a shared, high-conviction core across managers
Despite this, ~47% of capital sits in stocks owned by &lt;15% of funds — the long tail remains the key source of differentiation
The middle cohort is shrinking, shifting portfolios toward a barbell structure — aligned at the top, but differentiated through selective conviction deeper in the portfolio.


Ownership, Concentration and Conviction in Global Equities

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.</li>
<li>The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.</li>
<li>The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a>  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.
The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.
The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.


Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We analyse markets of South Korea, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, China, Europe, and the US to study extreme dispersion, extracting repeatable, factor-driven signals beyond macro growth narrative.
</li>
<li>Across these markets, returns were driven by earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery; stability, defensiveness, and high quality without momentum underperformed.</li>
<li>
Cyclicality and operating leverage outperformed, while revenue growth mattered only when converting into earnings and cash, reinforcing bottom-up capital allocation over GDP-led narratives.</li>
</ul>


We analyse markets of South Korea, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, China, Europe, and the US to study extreme dispersion, extracting repeatable, factor-driven signals beyond macro growth narrative.

Across these markets, returns were driven by earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery; stability, defensiveness, and high quality without momentum underperformed.

Cyclicality and operating leverage outperformed, while revenue growth mattered only when converting into earnings and cash, reinforcing bottom-up capital allocation over GDP-led narratives.


United States

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI All Country World Index and holds over 1200 equities in developed and emerging markets. The ETF weights its holdings using a representative sampling indexing strategy, generally investing at least 90% of its assets in the underlying index.

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)

Time to Buy Global Tech Stocks (Lenovo, SAP); Metals/Miners Also in Focus; MSCI ACWI Clean Breakout

Time to Buy Global Technology Stocks (Lite-On, Lenovo, $SAP, etc.); Metals/Miners Also in Focus $AYA $GDX $XME; MSCI $ACWI Clean Breakout; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Lockout Rally Continues; Yet Another Bullish Gap on ACWI-US; Crude Oil Top in Place

Lockout Rally Continues; Yet Another Bullish Gap on $ACWI; Crude Oil $USO Top in Place; Actionable Themes: Technology, Discretionary, Industrials,...

Vermilion Research

Ownership, Concentration and Conviction in Global Equities

Global equity portfolios are converging at the top, but real differentiation sits in the long tail. With ~47% of weight in low-ownership stocks,...

Steven Holden

Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Thursday's International Compass: Stay Defensive. Actionable Global Sectors: Energy, Materials, Transportation, Communications, Utilities, and...

Vermilion Research

2025 Learnings | Short the Stagnant

Analysis of across markets showed that earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery drove returns, highlighting the importance of...

Pranav Bhavsar

Time to Buy Global Tech Stocks (Lenovo, SAP); Metals/Miners Also in Focus; MSCI ACWI Clean Breakout

Time to Buy Global Technology Stocks (Lite-On, Lenovo, $SAP, etc.); Metals/Miners Also in Focus $AYA $GDX $XME; MSCI $ACWI Clean Breakout; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Lockout Rally Continues; Yet Another Bullish Gap on ACWI-US; Crude Oil Top in Place

Lockout Rally Continues; Yet Another Bullish Gap on $ACWI; Crude Oil $USO Top in Place; Actionable Themes: Technology, Discretionary, Industrials,...

Vermilion Research

Ownership, Concentration and Conviction in Global Equities

Global equity portfolios are converging at the top, but real differentiation sits in the long tail. With ~47% of weight in low-ownership stocks,...

Steven Holden

Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Thursday's International Compass: Stay Defensive. Actionable Global Sectors: Energy, Materials, Transportation, Communications, Utilities, and...

Vermilion Research

2025 Learnings | Short the Stagnant

​Analysis of across markets showed that earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery drove returns, highlighting the importance of...

Pranav Bhavsar

Analysis of across markets showed that earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery drove returns, highlighting the importance of...