Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Indian IT outperformed over 10 years, but recent underperformance and weak R&amp;D spending raise questions on innovation versus high dividend and buyback payouts.</li>
<li>AI disruption threatens coding demand and outsourcing models, risking productivity shocks, workforce layoffs, and urban consumption downturns if companies don’t adapt with innovation.</li>
<li>Boards must prioritize bold investments and acquisitions over capital returns, positioning Indian IT as innovation leaders rather than risk-averse cash generators.</li>
</ul>


Indian IT outperformed over 10 years, but recent underperformance and weak R&amp;D spending raise questions on innovation versus high dividend and buyback payouts.
AI disruption threatens coding demand and outsourcing models, risking productivity shocks, workforce layoffs, and urban consumption downturns if companies don’t adapt with innovation.
Boards must prioritize bold investments and acquisitions over capital returns, positioning Indian IT as innovation leaders rather than risk-averse cash generators.


Indian IT | Urge to the Boards – Stop the Buybacks

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Spurred by 50bp of rate cuts in Feb-Apr'25, real GDP accelerated to 7.8%YoY in Q1FY26, with GFCF rebounding to 7.8%YoY growth. On the production side, services grew a stellar 9.3%YoY. </li>
<li>The additional 50bp cut in Jun'25 will boost growth in Q2FY26, while an effective 2ppYoY reduction in GST rates will spur consumption and sharply reduce H2FY26 CPI inflation to 1%.</li>
<li>Over the Oct'25-Sep'26 period, the 100bp cut in repo rate and CRR, and 2ppYoY decline in GST, is likely to provide a 2pp kicker to RGDP, enabling 9% growth. </li>
</ul>


Spurred by 50bp of rate cuts in Feb-Apr'25, real GDP accelerated to 7.8%YoY in Q1FY26, with GFCF rebounding to 7.8%YoY growth. On the production side, services grew a stellar 9.3%YoY. 
The additional 50bp cut in Jun'25 will boost growth in Q2FY26, while an effective 2ppYoY reduction in GST rates will spur consumption and sharply reduce H2FY26 CPI inflation to 1%.
Over the Oct'25-Sep'26 period, the 100bp cut in repo rate and CRR, and 2ppYoY decline in GST, is likely to provide a 2pp kicker to RGDP, enabling 9% growth. 


India: After 7.8%YoY in Q1, Monetary & Fiscal Stimulus to Ensure 9% RGDP Growth

<ul>
<li>India has undertaken a major reform of the GST regime, collapsing the 5 slabs to 3, and substantially cutting the GST-rate for almost all goods and services. Positive for PCE. </li>
<li>Since 27th Aug'25, India faces a 50% tariff on more than half of its goods exports to the US (its biggest export market), a significant setback to growth. </li>
<li>FY26 fiscal deficit will likely exceed government targets, but this stimulus will ensure 8%+ real GDP growth despite weaker goods exports. Services strength will keep CAD to 0.6% of GDP. </li>
</ul>


India has undertaken a major reform of the GST regime, collapsing the 5 slabs to 3, and substantially cutting the GST-rate for almost all goods and services. Positive for PCE. 
Since 27th Aug'25, India faces a 50% tariff on more than half of its goods exports to the US (its biggest export market), a significant setback to growth. 
FY26 fiscal deficit will likely exceed government targets, but this stimulus will ensure 8%+ real GDP growth despite weaker goods exports. Services strength will keep CAD to 0.6% of GDP. 


India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Stimulus to Offset the Trump Tariff Setback to Growth

<ul>
<li>Headline CPI inflation eased to 1.55%YoY in Jul'25, implying that the real repo rate was +3.95%, the highest in 6.5 years (and versus +2.19% in Jan'25 before rate cutting began). </li>
<li>The RBI is behind the curve, and will need to cut the repo rate another 75bp by Dec'25 in order to adhere to its 2-6% inflation target. </li>
<li>Vegetable and food deflation will persist until Oct'25, thereby ensuring 2.8% average CPI inflation in FY26. Countering Trump tariffs with faster INR depreciation also argues for steady rate cuts. </li>
</ul>


Headline CPI inflation eased to 1.55%YoY in Jul'25, implying that the real repo rate was +3.95%, the highest in 6.5 years (and versus +2.19% in Jan'25 before rate cutting began). 
The RBI is behind the curve, and will need to cut the repo rate another 75bp by Dec'25 in order to adhere to its 2-6% inflation target. 
Vegetable and food deflation will persist until Oct'25, thereby ensuring 2.8% average CPI inflation in FY26. Countering Trump tariffs with faster INR depreciation also argues for steady rate cuts. 


India: Continuing Disinflation Highlights RBI's Renewed (Mild) Policy Error

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uco-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9669:1" rel="noopener">UCO Bank (UCO IN)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:544:1" rel="noopener">Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN)</a> price-ratio has deviated two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Both stocks are trading near 52-week lows, opening a window for a statistically supported mean-reversion setup.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The UCO Bank (UCO IN) vs. Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN) price-ratio has deviated two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Both stocks are trading near 52-week lows, opening a window for a statistically supported mean-reversion setup.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN): Statistical Edge in India Bank Pair Trade

India

iShares MSCI India ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI India Index.

iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA US)

Indian IT | Urge to the Boards – Stop the Buybacks

Indian IT industry faces challenges with underperformance and lack of innovation, must prioritize bold investments to adapt to AI disruption and...

Pranav Bhavsar

India: After 7.8%YoY in Q1, Monetary & Fiscal Stimulus to Ensure 9% RGDP Growth

100bp rate and CRR cuts and 2ppYoY GST reduction expected to drive strong economic growth in India, with RGDP accelerating from 7.8% YoY in Q1FY26...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Stimulus to Offset the Trump Tariff Setback to Growth

US tariffs will push CAD to 0.6% of GDP (vs previous fcst of 0.2%), but the GST and income tax cuts will provide a 1% of GDP stimulus, enabling...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Continuing Disinflation Highlights RBI's Renewed (Mild) Policy Error

CPI inflation eased to 1.55% in Jul'25, with real repo rate at +3.95%, a 6.5-year high. RBI needs another 75bp of cuts by Dec'25 to keep to its...

Prasenjit K. Basu

UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN): Statistical Edge in India Bank Pair Trade

Tight historical correlation sets the stage for a high-probability reversal in this India bank pair. Quant signals highlight an attractive mean...

Gaudenz Schneider

Indian IT | Urge to the Boards – Stop the Buybacks

​Indian IT industry faces challenges with underperformance and lack of innovation, must prioritize bold investments to adapt to AI disruption and...

Pranav Bhavsar

India: After 7.8%YoY in Q1, Monetary & Fiscal Stimulus to Ensure 9% RGDP Growth

​100bp rate and CRR cuts and 2ppYoY GST reduction expected to drive strong economic growth in India, with RGDP accelerating from 7.8% YoY in Q1FY26...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Stimulus to Offset the Trump Tariff Setback to Growth

US tariffs will push CAD to 0.6% of GDP (vs previous fcst of 0.2%), but the GST and income tax cuts will provide a 1% of GDP stimulus, enabling...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Continuing Disinflation Highlights RBI's Renewed (Mild) Policy Error

​CPI inflation eased to 1.55% in Jul'25, with real repo rate at +3.95%, a 6.5-year high. RBI needs another 75bp of cuts by Dec'25 to keep to its...

Prasenjit K. Basu

UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN): Statistical Edge in India Bank Pair Trade

Tight historical correlation sets the stage for a high-probability reversal in this India bank pair. Quant signals highlight an attractive mean...

Gaudenz Schneider

Indian IT industry faces challenges with underperformance and lack of innovation, must prioritize bold investments to adapt to AI disruption and...

100bp rate and CRR cuts and 2ppYoY GST reduction expected to drive strong economic growth in India, with RGDP accelerating from 7.8% YoY in Q1FY26...

CPI inflation eased to 1.55% in Jul'25, with real repo rate at +3.95%, a 6.5-year high. RBI needs another 75bp of cuts by Dec'25 to keep to its...