Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Substantial reduction of tax rates for all income-tax payers will provide a robust boost to private consumption (PCE) in FY26, while reduction/rationalisation of customs duties boosts FDI and exports, medium-term. </li>
<li>Commitment to reduce public debt to 47% of GDP by FY31, and taking FY26 fiscal deficit to 4.4% of GDP, likely to be met comfortably, as nominal GDP outperforms assumptions. </li>
<li>Major support to labour-intensive exports (including tourism), and incentives for states to improve urban governance and power distribution, are forward-looking measures, as are bolsters for battery manufacturing. </li>
</ul>


Substantial reduction of tax rates for all income-tax payers will provide a robust boost to private consumption (PCE) in FY26, while reduction/rationalisation of customs duties boosts FDI and exports, medium-term. 
Commitment to reduce public debt to 47% of GDP by FY31, and taking FY26 fiscal deficit to 4.4% of GDP, likely to be met comfortably, as nominal GDP outperforms assumptions. 
Major support to labour-intensive exports (including tourism), and incentives for states to improve urban governance and power distribution, are forward-looking measures, as are bolsters for battery manufacturing. 


India: A Budget to Revive PCE, Labour-Intensive Exports & Urban Governance

<ul>
<li>In Apr-Dec'24 (3/4th of FY25), the fiscal deficit was only 56% of the FY25 target, and its 12mma was 4.9% of GDP. Seasonality should bring it to 4.7% by end-FY25.</li>
<li>PIT, CGST and customs revenue grew 11-22%YoY in CY24. Corporate taxes declined, falling 8.33%YoY in Q2FY25, but recovering to grow 3.34%YoY in Q3FY25. The worst is over for EPS growth. </li>
<li>The 4qma of the CAD was 0.6% of GDP in Sep'24; a surplus in Dec'24 likely cut the Q3FY25 deficit further. Seasonality should ensure a FY25 surplus (0.2% of GDP). </li>
</ul>


In Apr-Dec'24 (3/4th of FY25), the fiscal deficit was only 56% of the FY25 target, and its 12mma was 4.9% of GDP. Seasonality should bring it to 4.7% by end-FY25.
PIT, CGST and customs revenue grew 11-22%YoY in CY24. Corporate taxes declined, falling 8.33%YoY in Q2FY25, but recovering to grow 3.34%YoY in Q3FY25. The worst is over for EPS growth. 
The 4qma of the CAD was 0.6% of GDP in Sep'24; a surplus in Dec'24 likely cut the Q3FY25 deficit further. Seasonality should ensure a FY25 surplus (0.2% of GDP). 


India Twin Deficit Watch: CA Surplus, and a Lower-Than-Estimated Fiscal Deficit

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A Q1 2025 tactical ETF Portfolio, on four themes: Technology &amp; AI Leadership (30% exposure), Cryptocurrency Ecosystem (15% exposure), Quality Factor (35% exposure), and Strategic Regional Opportunities (12% net exposure).</li>
<li>Investment approach includes sophisticated risk management framework with position-level controls, crypto-specific risk management, stop-loss strategy, and a three-phase implementation process designed to balance risk and capitalize on emerging market trends.</li>
<li>Targets 130% Gross, net long exposure of 45%, information ratio above 0.85, 12% maximum drawdown, seeks risk-adjusted return of +15%, ETF positions in AI, Crypto, Cash Flow, and regional hedges.</li>
</ul>


A Q1 2025 tactical ETF Portfolio, on four themes: Technology &amp; AI Leadership (30% exposure), Cryptocurrency Ecosystem (15% exposure), Quality Factor (35% exposure), and Strategic Regional Opportunities (12% net exposure).
Investment approach includes sophisticated risk management framework with position-level controls, crypto-specific risk management, stop-loss strategy, and a three-phase implementation process designed to balance risk and capitalize on emerging market trends.
Targets 130% Gross, net long exposure of 45%, information ratio above 0.85, 12% maximum drawdown, seeks risk-adjusted return of +15%, ETF positions in AI, Crypto, Cash Flow, and regional hedges.


The Trump Transition Trade: Q1 2025 AI-Designed Tactical Alpha Capture ETF Portfolio

<ul>
<li>The real policy rate is +1.28% (using CPI; +4.13% using WPI). High real rates are a hindrance to the real economy, especially with core inflation below 4%YoY for 13 months.</li>
<li>F&amp;B inflation moderated to 7.69%YoY in Dec'24 (from 9.69%YoY in Oct'24), as vegetable inflation eased to 26.6%YoY (from 42.2%YoY). All other key food and non-food inflation categories abated. </li>
<li>Bountiful winter and spring crops should dampen inflation further, allowing the first rate cut in 2 years (Feb'25), and 25bp rate cuts at each of the next 2 MPC meetings. </li>
</ul>


The real policy rate is +1.28% (using CPI; +4.13% using WPI). High real rates are a hindrance to the real economy, especially with core inflation below 4%YoY for 13 months.
F&amp;B inflation moderated to 7.69%YoY in Dec'24 (from 9.69%YoY in Oct'24), as vegetable inflation eased to 26.6%YoY (from 42.2%YoY). All other key food and non-food inflation categories abated. 
Bountiful winter and spring crops should dampen inflation further, allowing the first rate cut in 2 years (Feb'25), and 25bp rate cuts at each of the next 2 MPC meetings. 


India: Still on Track for Rate Cuts to Begin in Feb'25; Continue at Next 2 MPC Meetings

<ul>
<li>WPI inflation eased to 1.9%YoY in Nov'24, implying that the real policy rate was +4.6%, reining in industrial growth. Using CPI, the real policy rate in Nov'24 was +1.04%. </li>
<li>That seeming divergence is mainly caused by vegetable inflation, which moderated to a still-high 29.2%YoY in Nov'24 (from Oct'24's 42.2%YoY!). Core CPI inflation has remained below 4%YoY since Dec'23. </li>
<li>The bountiful winter harvest is likely to prompt a steady moderation in food/headline CPI inflation to below 4%YoY by Apr'25. We expect the repo rate to decline 75bp by Jun'25. </li>
</ul>


WPI inflation eased to 1.9%YoY in Nov'24, implying that the real policy rate was +4.6%, reining in industrial growth. Using CPI, the real policy rate in Nov'24 was +1.04%. 
That seeming divergence is mainly caused by vegetable inflation, which moderated to a still-high 29.2%YoY in Nov'24 (from Oct'24's 42.2%YoY!). Core CPI inflation has remained below 4%YoY since Dec'23. 
The bountiful winter harvest is likely to prompt a steady moderation in food/headline CPI inflation to below 4%YoY by Apr'25. We expect the repo rate to decline 75bp by Jun'25. 


India: Policy Rate to Decline 75bp by Jun'25 as Inflation Recedes

India

iShares MSCI India ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI India Index.

iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA US)

India: A Budget to Revive PCE, Labour-Intensive Exports & Urban Governance

Tax rate reduction and customs duty rationalization will boost PCE in FY26, FDI & exports medium-term. Measures to reduce public debt, support...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: CA Surplus, and a Lower-Than-Estimated Fiscal Deficit

Fiscal deficit on track to be below FY25 target, revenue growth robust in PIT, CGST and customs. CAD likely to turn into surplus for FY25. EPS...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The Trump Transition Trade: Q1 2025 AI-Designed Tactical Alpha Capture ETF Portfolio

A Q1 2025 tactical ETF Portfolio focuses on Technology, Cryptocurrency, Quality, and Regional Opportunities with sophisticated risk management and...

William Mann

India: Still on Track for Rate Cuts to Begin in Feb'25; Continue at Next 2 MPC Meetings

High real policy rates are hindering the economy. But with core inflation low and the bountiful winter harvest, food inflation should ease...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Policy Rate to Decline 75bp by Jun'25 as Inflation Recedes

WPI inflation at 1.9% implies +4.6% real policy rate. Strong winter harvest to lower food prices, enabling CPI moderation below 4%YoY by Apr'25....

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: A Budget to Revive PCE, Labour-Intensive Exports & Urban Governance

​Tax rate reduction and customs duty rationalization will boost PCE in FY26, FDI & exports medium-term. Measures to reduce public debt, support...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: CA Surplus, and a Lower-Than-Estimated Fiscal Deficit

​Fiscal deficit on track to be below FY25 target, revenue growth robust in PIT, CGST and customs. CAD likely to turn into surplus for FY25. EPS...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The Trump Transition Trade: Q1 2025 AI-Designed Tactical Alpha Capture ETF Portfolio

​A Q1 2025 tactical ETF Portfolio focuses on Technology, Cryptocurrency, Quality, and Regional Opportunities with sophisticated risk management and...

William Mann

India: Still on Track for Rate Cuts to Begin in Feb'25; Continue at Next 2 MPC Meetings

​High real policy rates are hindering the economy. But with core inflation low and the bountiful winter harvest, food inflation should ease...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Policy Rate to Decline 75bp by Jun'25 as Inflation Recedes

​WPI inflation at 1.9% implies +4.6% real policy rate. Strong winter harvest to lower food prices, enabling CPI moderation below 4%YoY by Apr'25....

Prasenjit K. Basu

Tax rate reduction and customs duty rationalization will boost PCE in FY26, FDI & exports medium-term. Measures to reduce public debt, support...

Fiscal deficit on track to be below FY25 target, revenue growth robust in PIT, CGST and customs. CAD likely to turn into surplus for FY25. EPS...

A Q1 2025 tactical ETF Portfolio focuses on Technology, Cryptocurrency, Quality, and Regional Opportunities with sophisticated risk management and...

High real policy rates are hindering the economy. But with core inflation low and the bountiful winter harvest, food inflation should ease...

WPI inflation at 1.9% implies +4.6% real policy rate. Strong winter harvest to lower food prices, enabling CPI moderation below 4%YoY by Apr'25....