Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The largest ETF inflows in the region have been in Taiwan as investors rush into indices that have higher dividend yields.</li>
<li>China had large inflows last year as markets floundered. With markets trading in a range over the last 6 months, those flows have reversed in Q1 this year.</li>
<li>Australia has seen net inflows this year, while there have been net outflows from Hong Kong, India and Japan focused ETFs.</li>
</ul>


The largest ETF inflows in the region have been in Taiwan as investors rush into indices that have higher dividend yields.
China had large inflows last year as markets floundered. With markets trading in a range over the last 6 months, those flows have reversed in Q1 this year.
Australia has seen net inflows this year, while there have been net outflows from Hong Kong, India and Japan focused ETFs.


ETF Flows in Q1: Inflows for Taiwan, Outflows for China

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>CPI inflation receded to 3.6%YoY in Feb'25, as big MoM declines in vegetable prices brought F&amp;B inflation down to 3.8%YoY. Tame food inflation will allow 3.2%YoY headline inflation in Apr-Dec'25. </li>
<li>Energy deflation will end in Mar'25, and non-food inflation will edge up marginally, but food inflation likely to be lower than 3.5%YoY for the next half-year amid tame vegetable inflation.</li>
<li>Policy rate to decline 25bp at each of the next 3 MPC meetings, and another 25bp by Dec'25. Normalized interest rates will enable RGDP's return to 8% growth in FY26. </li>
</ul>


CPI inflation receded to 3.6%YoY in Feb'25, as big MoM declines in vegetable prices brought F&amp;B inflation down to 3.8%YoY. Tame food inflation will allow 3.2%YoY headline inflation in Apr-Dec'25. 
Energy deflation will end in Mar'25, and non-food inflation will edge up marginally, but food inflation likely to be lower than 3.5%YoY for the next half-year amid tame vegetable inflation.
Policy rate to decline 25bp at each of the next 3 MPC meetings, and another 25bp by Dec'25. Normalized interest rates will enable RGDP's return to 8% growth in FY26. 


India: Inflation Likely Averaging 3.2%YoY in Apr-Dec'25 Will Allow 100bp of Rate Cuts

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Indian equities have seen a broad-based correction, with the Nifty-50 down ~16% from its peak, driven by weak earnings, heavy FII outflows, and global uncertainty. </li>
<li>However, multiple indicators—from easing valuations and supportive policies to an expected earnings rebound—suggest the correction may be nearing its end. </li>
<li>This blog explores past correction trends and key signals pointing to a potential market reversal in FY26.</li>
</ul>


Indian equities have seen a broad-based correction, with the Nifty-50 down ~16% from its peak, driven by weak earnings, heavy FII outflows, and global uncertainty. 
However, multiple indicators—from easing valuations and supportive policies to an expected earnings rebound—suggest the correction may be nearing its end. 
This blog explores past correction trends and key signals pointing to a potential market reversal in FY26.


Charted Insights: A Deeper Look into Indian Market’s Historical Corrections

<ul>
<li>The RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jan-Mar'25, but a 15.7%MoM decline in vegetable prices in Jan'25 enabled headline CPI inflation to ease to 4.3%YoY. </li>
<li>Our forecast of 4.1%YoY inflation for Jan-Mar'25 remains on track. With food inflation set to recede, we expect CPI inflation below 4%YoY in Apr-Sep'25, enabling 75bp of further rate cuts. </li>
<li>If the SW Monsoon in Jun-Sep'25 is normal or better, another 25bp rate cut is likely in Dec'25, taking the repo rate to 5.25% by the end of 2025. </li>
</ul>


The RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jan-Mar'25, but a 15.7%MoM decline in vegetable prices in Jan'25 enabled headline CPI inflation to ease to 4.3%YoY. 
Our forecast of 4.1%YoY inflation for Jan-Mar'25 remains on track. With food inflation set to recede, we expect CPI inflation below 4%YoY in Apr-Sep'25, enabling 75bp of further rate cuts. 
If the SW Monsoon in Jun-Sep'25 is normal or better, another 25bp rate cut is likely in Dec'25, taking the repo rate to 5.25% by the end of 2025. 


India: Our View About Inflation Vindicated in Jan'25, Paving Path to Faster Rate Cuts

<ul>
<li>RBI cut its policy rate by 25bp on 7th Feb'25. With inflation set to moderate substantially over the rest of CY25, we expect another 75bp of rate cuts by Aug'25. </li>
<li>Delhi election results on 8th Feb'25 saw resounding BJP victory after 27 years. Urban governance, a major focus of Budget'25, will be bolstered in Delhi and Mumbai, India's largest cities. </li>
<li>With the policy rate at 5.5% by Aug'25, and substantial income tax cuts boosting PCE, real GDP should return to 8% growth in FY26 (Apr'25-Mar'26). EPS growth will benefit too. </li>
</ul>


RBI cut its policy rate by 25bp on 7th Feb'25. With inflation set to moderate substantially over the rest of CY25, we expect another 75bp of rate cuts by Aug'25. 
Delhi election results on 8th Feb'25 saw resounding BJP victory after 27 years. Urban governance, a major focus of Budget'25, will be bolstered in Delhi and Mumbai, India's largest cities. 
With the policy rate at 5.5% by Aug'25, and substantial income tax cuts boosting PCE, real GDP should return to 8% growth in FY26 (Apr'25-Mar'26). EPS growth will benefit too. 


India: RBI to Cut 75bp More, and BJP Delhi Win to Spur 8% RGDP Growth Post Tax Cuts

India

iShares MSCI India ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI India Index.

iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA US)

ETF Flows in Q1: Inflows for Taiwan, Outflows for China

Taiwan has taken in the largest inflows in Q1 while the largest outflows are in China. The switch from EEM to IEMG continues. Redemptions from EMXC...

Brian Freitas

India: Inflation Likely Averaging 3.2%YoY in Apr-Dec'25 Will Allow 100bp of Rate Cuts

Feb'25 CPI inflation at 3.6%YoY due to lower food prices, expected to stay below 3.5%YoY for next 6 months. Policy rate to decline by 100bp in Apr...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Charted Insights: A Deeper Look into Indian Market’s Historical Corrections

Indian equities have experienced a significant correction due to weak earnings, FII outflows, and global uncertainty, but indicators suggest a...

Nimish Maheshwari

India: Our View About Inflation Vindicated in Jan'25, Paving Path to Faster Rate Cuts

Jan'25 inflation in line with our forecast but already lower than RBI forecast for Jan-Mar'25 quarter. We expect up to 100bp of further rate cuts...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI to Cut 75bp More, and BJP Delhi Win to Spur 8% RGDP Growth Post Tax Cuts

RBI's 25bp cut likely to be followed by 75bp more by Aug'25 as inflation recedes. Delhi election to boost urban governance, and income tax cuts...

Prasenjit K. Basu

ETF Flows in Q1: Inflows for Taiwan, Outflows for China

Taiwan has taken in the largest inflows in Q1 while the largest outflows are in China. The switch from EEM to IEMG continues. Redemptions from EMXC...

Brian Freitas

India: Inflation Likely Averaging 3.2%YoY in Apr-Dec'25 Will Allow 100bp of Rate Cuts

​Feb'25 CPI inflation at 3.6%YoY due to lower food prices, expected to stay below 3.5%YoY for next 6 months. Policy rate to decline by 100bp in Apr...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Charted Insights: A Deeper Look into Indian Market’s Historical Corrections

​Indian equities have experienced a significant correction due to weak earnings, FII outflows, and global uncertainty, but indicators suggest a...

Nimish Maheshwari

India: Our View About Inflation Vindicated in Jan'25, Paving Path to Faster Rate Cuts

Jan'25 inflation in line with our forecast but already lower than ​RBI forecast for Jan-Mar'25 quarter. We expect up to 100bp of further rate cuts...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI to Cut 75bp More, and BJP Delhi Win to Spur 8% RGDP Growth Post Tax Cuts

​RBI's 25bp cut likely to be followed by 75bp more by Aug'25 as inflation recedes. Delhi election to boost urban governance, and income tax cuts...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Feb'25 CPI inflation at 3.6%YoY due to lower food prices, expected to stay below 3.5%YoY for next 6 months. Policy rate to decline by 100bp in Apr...

Indian equities have experienced a significant correction due to weak earnings, FII outflows, and global uncertainty, but indicators suggest a...

Jan'25 inflation in line with our forecast but already lower than RBI forecast for Jan-Mar'25 quarter. We expect up to 100bp of further rate cuts...

RBI's 25bp cut likely to be followed by 75bp more by Aug'25 as inflation recedes. Delhi election to boost urban governance, and income tax cuts...